The housing market in India currently looks something like this. Interest rates are going up(a lot, significantly higher EMIs) with an ageing population, fertility rates below replenishment in most states (avg. age will go up with time, older people need lesser space).
Residential rental yield is ~3%, nowhere near beating inflation.
Whenever the black money problem is resolved in India, this market would be most affected (for obvious reasons). Real Estate as an asset class becomes illiquid quickly, if you and a few around you sell together.
Why then does a 1000 sqft. apartment still cost so much in Mumbai? 🤨 And why would you buy, if you can rent at 3 per cent...
1. Fed increases the federal funds rate by 75 bips to 1.6 percent, this is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend overnight without collateral to other institutions.
Set to reach 4 percent by the end of the year.
2. T bills/bonds are the rate at which the US govt borrows to fund expenditure, this is at 3.45 percent.(10y)
Home Mortgage rates are now at 6 percent in the US, which shud lower demand for housing.
Similarly higher rates discourage Capex and borrowing, in theory this should slow down the economy and curtail inflation.
At 1.6 % while inflation has averaged 7 % for the first half of the year, inflation would need to fall to 3 % abruptly to get it to the short term 5 % tgt.