Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #interestrates

Most recents (24)

The housing market in India currently looks something like this. Interest rates are going up(a lot, significantly higher EMIs) with an ageing population, fertility rates below replenishment in most states (avg. age will go up with time, older people need lesser space).
Residential rental yield is ~3%, nowhere near beating inflation.

Whenever the black money problem is resolved in India, this market would be most affected (for obvious reasons). Real Estate as an asset class becomes illiquid quickly, if you and a few around you sell together.
Why then does a 1000 sqft. apartment still cost so much in Mumbai? 🤨 And why would you buy, if you can rent at 3 per cent...

#interestrates #fertilityrate #realestate #India
Read 3 tweets
🧵 Is the American Dream dead? - a tweetstorm

This is a brain dump of .@RaoulGMI's 30+ years of knowledge, how the world works, and how his macro framework fits into it all ⤵️
1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

We hardly understand these new problems unless there's hindsight to connect the dots...
2/ [PART I: #HISTORY]

So, how the hell did we get here?

Let's start by looking at the peak of the #British Empire:

It was the world's largest realm. But as with every empire, trying to control so many people across the globe has its price & #debt weakened its structure...
Read 81 tweets
$PLTR Q3 earnings preview🧵7th Nov:
Valuation since DPO: Price, Actual & Estimated Sales with Free Cash Flow switching positive:
👉when PLTR was making 1bn Sales & Sales estimates were 1.3bn, price = 44
👉when PLTR is making 1.74bn in Sales & Sales est are 2.09bn, price = 8.61🧐 Image
$PLTR Earnings History & Surprises:
👉actual EPS vs EPS surprise
👉1 day price % reaction ... if you feel like trading the stock and/or options during the Q3 earnings have this in mind ... Image
$PLTR Financials Actuals & Consensus:
Wall Street consensus expects:
👉$475m Q3 Revenues while for Q4 $507m with revenue growth just 21% and 17%
👉 1.9bn for 2022, 2.3bn for 2023 and 3bn for 2024 with revenue growth just 23%, 24% and 25% =🧐materially below management guidance? ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
#MustRead #NIFTY #CostOfCapital
How Does #Rising #InterestRates/ #CostOfCapital/#DiscountingRate Impact Stock #Valuations. A STUDY of large Cap INDIAN Stocks
A long THEAD, pls stay with me...Exercise Shows a #StockWise Impact of Higher Discounting Rates & Implied Long Term Growth
Exercise based on Div Discounting Model (DDM) for Current GSEC vs 8.5% GSEC (Every Justification for it to be 9%).
Starting with #Reliance
Tab 1: Stk px implies 14% CAGR LT Growth (8yr + 8yr) @ 7.45% GSEC
Tab 2: Same Growth (14% CAGR) @ 8.55% GSEC
=>18% Lower Fair Value(Rs2062)
Higher Global Interest Rates to counter Inflation => lower Growth. Past 11yrs, High Growth & Low Interest Rate Environment, RIL growth: Revenues ($ linked) at 9.2% CAGR & EPS at 9% CAGR over FY11-22... So Assuming EPS growth @ 14% CAGR in prev tweet is AGGRESSIVE
Read 9 tweets
Interestingly, the real interest rate differential in favor of the dollar peaked in May of this year and has dropped sharply since:

#dxy #g4 #dollar #interestrates Image
Similarly, terms of trade in favor of the dollar peaked in June of this year: Image
The dollar is currently significantly overvalued: Image
Read 7 tweets
What would happen if FED keeps on hiking interest rates without worrying about the economy?

Answered in this #Thread🧵

Kindly leave a like, it's a motivation🤗

#FED #Powell #Recession #stockmarketcrash #inflation #interestrates

@TheFactFindr @abhymurarka @harrie007

(1/5) Image
👉Powell has said that he will keep rising interest rates until the "job is done".

👉This would be squeezing out all the excess debt, bringing inflation below 2% & calming the valuations down.

(2/5)
👉Warren Buffett says that historically markets are around 70% - 80% of the GDP. Well, as of now they are 2 times worth.

👉Also, due to Fed's zero-interest policy, their debt is around 375% of the GDP.

(3/5)
Read 6 tweets
1/17 En este hilo vamos a repasar la tesis de la #plata #silver y pensar porque podria ser unas #inversiones a tener en cuenta. Sobretodo porque puede ser una opción mas interesante que el #gold si pensamos en #preciousmetals 🧵
2/17 El #bear case esta soportado por un #dolar fuerte y unos #bonds yields altos gracias a las subidas de tipo de la #FED, ya que esta a dejado claro que va a subir tipos en noviembre y diciembre y mantenerlos en 2023 Image
3/17 Por otro lado, el #dolar hará peak pronto porque no puede si esta muy fuerte destruirá demanda ya que la mayoria de #commodities se compran en dolares Image
Read 17 tweets
#PCE #Core #Inflation keeps rising.

Main indicator for the #FederalReserve when judging whether or not to continue raising #interestrates.

#Powell was quite clear in his speeches that they will continue raising "into pain" as long as price stability is not achieved.

🧵
By "into pain", they are primarily referring to their dual mandate of price stability (#inflation) and maximum #Employment.

But there is not much pain showing up in the job market.

Last weekly jobless claims hit a 5-month low.

reuters.com/markets/us/us-…
So to summarize, #TheFed has 2 jobs:
1. Reduce #inflation (not done)
2. Maximize #employment (done)

And they've been adamant about raising #rates until 1. is done, even at temporary setbacks to 2.

Unless they plan on pulling a #BoE, anything short of #75bps/#100bps is hopium.
Read 4 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
A Dark Age Winter of Discontent in Europe Part 3 - On the brink of a banking crisis, energy shortage, hard landing recession, food insecurity, and collapse of industrial base and households - by @TraderStef #DarkAge3 #EnergyShortage #FoodInsecurity #Winter crushthestreet.com/articles/break… Image
#DarkAge3 #EnergyShortage #FoodInsecurity #Winter - "An Arctic chill blowing across western #Europe through next week will be the first test of how willing people are to delay switching on the heating in a bid to save energy and ease household budgets." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#DarkAge3 #EnergyShortage #FoodInsecurity #Winter - #manfacturing European Industries Shut Down Even Before Winter Months Set In inventiva.co.in/stories/europe…
Read 11 tweets
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend: Image
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.

2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: Image
Read 19 tweets
Today’s @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) meeting witnessed another historic 75 bps increase to policy rate levels (to a range of 3.0% to 3.25%) in an effort for the #CentralBank to manage its number one priority: fighting persistently high #inflation.
The #Fed, including in today’s meeting statement and in the Chair’s press conference, has been clearer than arguably any central bank in identifying its current goal and moving #InterestRates and #liquidity provision to achieve it.
Indeed, by moving the #Fed Funds rate for the third time in 75 bps increments we see clear evidence of a strong desire by the Committee to temper demand as a way to achieve its goal of #price moderation.
Read 13 tweets
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…

(1/8)

#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.

(2/8)

#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.

(3/8)

#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
Read 8 tweets
#Banks raking in #billions by not to passing on #benefits of rising #interestrates
Britain's biggest banks have not passed on the gains of interest rate risers to #savers, earning them billions.
thelondoneconomic.com/politics/banks…
#ToryEconomics #ShellGame #Economy #bubble
/2 According to The #Times, the latest results of #Barclays, #HSBC, #Lloyds, #NatWest and #Santander show they held as much as £673.5 billion in cash and balances at central banks at the end of June.

Most of this is expected to be held at the #bankofengland
/3 analysts said, where it is earning interest at a 14-year high of 1.75 per cent.
If the £673.5 billion was held at the Bank for a year at the present rate, it would earn the five biggest banks £11.78 billion in #interest.
Read 5 tweets
Thread🧵

Why August month can be #Bullish for #cryptocurrency

•No #Fed / #FOMC Meeting in August So their might not be #interestrates hikes

#Crypto #CryptoNews #ETH $ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #Binance #BNB

1/10🧵
Oil Price

•When You compare the #Oil price with june month,There is Fall of Oil Price in July month
•This affects #inflation
•That means #CPI Data of #USA can come down to 8.5% to 8.8% range

#Crypto #cryptocurrency #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin #ETH $ETH #Ethereum #binance #BNB

2/10🧵
Consumer Spending

•Even though the #inflation is at peak the #USA Consumer Spending has not got reduced in June
•We can expect the same in July also
•This also affects the #inflation I.e, We Can see a Drop in #CPI

#Crypto #cryptocurrency #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #ETH $ETH

3/10🧵
Read 11 tweets
Rather than raise interest rates, the Fed should simply throw a virgin into a volcano. It would have the same effect on inflation: zero.

#InterestRates #FederalReserve #Economics #Oil
nytimes.com/2022/07/25/bus…
As a recovering economist I can tell you that this is a supply-push inflation. Putin’s invasion (and Saudi collusion) have sent oil, fertilizer, grain, and edible oils prices through the roof and that pushes everything through the roof. gregpalast.com/how-to-stop-pu…
So chilling demand by raising interest rates is voodoo economics at its worst.
Read 4 tweets
The Power of The Dollar 🧵

[a thread for normies -like me]
Long periods of #dollar-strength often ended with massive financial dislocations like the Latin American #debt crisis of the 80s and the Asian crisis of the 90s.

Oppositely, long periods of a weakening dollar came with strong markets like between 2003-2007.

1/20
Although the #USdollar is not itself an asset, cash is.

The dollar is the most common currency in which assets are quoted and exchanged in #financialmarkets and the economy.

It's the world's reserve currency (for now at least...) 2/ 20
Read 22 tweets
While the pictures from the #WebbSpace Telescope have transfixed everyone with an interest in outer space, back on planet earth, investors are fixated on #recession. We looked at the history of recessions and found some interesting facts. Here’s the lowdown: 1/7
There have been 12 official recessions. On an average, they happen about every 6.5 years. The average period of #recession lasts about 10 months. But the ones in 1973, 1981, & 2007 lasted for well over a year. 2/7
Before the #pandemic, the deepest recessions that saw #GDP decline by more than 3%, started in 1957 (tightening of monetary policy), 1973 (stagflation, oil embargo) and 2007 (global financial crisis). 3/7
Read 7 tweets
It was evident. Interest rates would rise as #inflation started spiralling.

To ride through the rate hike cycle⬆️, #FloaterFunds were touted as an ideal #investment option.

But, so far, they haven’t done well.

A 🧵on why #FloatingRateFunds haven’t delivered yet.
First, some basics.

When #InterestRates rise📈, bond #prices fall📉. Why? Investors would rather buy new papers at a higher rate than old ones with lower yields.

#FloaterFunds are not impacted by interest rate movement. There’s a simple explanation.👇
As the #InterestRates rise, the yields on floating-rate bonds also increase.⬆️

So, #investors don’t need to sell them to buy new papers offering higher interest rates.

But the converse is true, too. So, when interest rates fall📉, #FloaterFunds become unattractive.
Read 10 tweets
Google Trends - A Thread

1) Bear Market - Nearing 2020 Highs

#bearmarket
2) Recession -

Reaching previous peak levels of 2008/2020

#recession
3) Stock Market Crash - Yet to gain significance traction

#stockmarketcrash
Read 7 tweets
The Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate .75%, the announcement this Wednesday...
1/🧵
As inflation becomes more out of control the FED is set to decide to raise interest rates .75%
- The FED hasn't made that substantial of a hike since 1994
- At the beginning of their meeting on June 4th they initially decided to raise in the interest rate another half.
2/🧵
- But as new inflation and tumbling stock market numbers emerged the new rate hike number will be .75%.
- New consumer surveys have stated that inflation could hit 9% by next month and the planned rate hikes won't composite for Biden's runaway inflation.
3/🧵
Read 5 tweets
What factors to look for to understand which direction are #interestrates headed:

1. Total Credit in the system
2. Which gets divided into External and Internal
3. External focuses on #CAD
4. Internal: Private & Govt
5. Private - #CreditOfftake
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit
3. External :
#CAD (Current Account Deficit - difference between country's #Imports & #Exports) goes up, #imports become expensive, rupee depreciates, bringing in imported #inflation

- interest rate tend to go up
4. Internal Credit
5. #PrivateSector - #Creditofftake goes up interest rates rise
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit goes up interest rates rise
Read 4 tweets
India’s central bank hikes interest rates by 50 bps to fight off ‘globalised’ inflation

businessinsider.in/finance/news/i…

By @jainrounak and @KatyaNaidu
The Indian central bank today raised its #interestrates – the second time in a month - by 50 basis points. This is higher than last month’s hike of 40 basis points and the base interest rate at which the central bank lends is now at 4.9%.

#RBI #RepoRate
"The #reporate still remains below its pre-pandemic level," @DasShaktikanta, the governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said while making the announcement.

#RBI
Read 6 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 04/21/2022 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/04/21/dai…
Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment by Jerker Denrell, Christina Fang
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
#PredictionAccuracy, #ForecastingAbility, #ManagerialForesight
Read 13 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!