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Nov 2

I believe that Russians have selected this orange area as their long-term defense line, evicting civilians from their homes and use them for Russian occupational troops. That accomplish several aims. (Thread)
#Ukraine #Kherson

1.) The defense line is more tenable then the current one. All positions West of the Dnipro River are under constant pressure and Russia cannot sustain the supply lines over the rivers in that sector. Having the defense line on the Eastern bank simplifies the situation.

2.) Besides the obvious that the river poses a natural barrier, when blowing up the dam at Nova Kakhovka the already big obstacle becomes an even more daunting obstacle. Russian troops could focus the defense along a smaller front line, making use of their weak but many troops.

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Oct 27

Thread: In February, when Russia launched open war against Ukraine, they used their best troops, the best gear and had first-strike advantage. They odds were totally in favor for Russia. Yet, we know how it ended. Russian troops failed epicily and were compelled to retreat./1

Today, the Ukrainian Army is not only far more capable and prepared, it also has far superior weapons. Aside from the advanced Western weapons, Ukraine captured so many Russian vehicles that the odds totally turned around, plus the terrain still heavily favors Ukraine. /2

The calculation that Belarus might make a difference is even more hilarious. Belarus' army is rather small and their gear mediocre at best. Their troops are totally inexperienced and, worst, absolutely not willing to die for Putin's failed war. They would desert in droves. /3

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Oct 23

I'm pretty sure that Russians have already made the decision to withdraw from the Western bank of the Dnipro River. One element for achieving that is deception. The enemy must not know that withdrawal is imminent. Many Russians claimed that they will fight. (they won't) /1

Another critical element is having a capable rear guard. The withdrawing force must be covered for the duration of that process. This rear guard must be committed, agile and equipped with fast vehicles when they have to withdraw. Russia will likely just sacrifice conscripts. /2

The most important element, however, is logistics and the discipline to execute such a complicated objective. Russia has proven in this war that it lacks both of this, on an epic level. Especially considering that the Dnipro River needs to be crossed complicates it even more. /3

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Oct 16

Strikes at Belgorod could be an indicator that the Russian build-up in Belarus are being taken seriously by Kyiv and that Ukrainian government sends a message without giving Lukashenko chance to really people behind him. If Luka joins the war, it will end with his downfall.

That being said, it is also reason why I find it hard to believe that Luka could be that stupid. Of course, his independence from Putin and Russia has been heavily curtailed, but if Belarus joins the war, the common Belarus soldier would rebel and defect. #Belarus

Some might ask why Ukraine didn't strike Belarus instead. Well, aside from the fact that it already did at Gomel airport, the Ukrainian leadership is prudent enough to wait for Luka to make the first move. Luka is weakened and any bold move against Belarus might jeopardize it.

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Oct 1

The Russian excuses for their constant defeats are very colorful and serve only to cover the real reason. Putin failed epically, 3 days after the initial attack on Kyiv ended in the ditches of Bucha. Everything else is just dragging on the inevitable: The total Russian defeat.

There is really not much more to it. Of course, the chronic corruption, the obsolete fighting doctrine and the quality weapons did their part. But nothing was so devastating for the Russian soldier than seeing their Ukrainian opponents holding the line and fighting back.

For the forced conscripts this will be (and it already is) even more a shock. Seriously, they have neither experience nor the guts to survive what’s coming for them. 22 years of propaganda have totally cooked their brain.

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