It's Friday, wine night and time to write a thread on NFT's, inspired by my chat on @RugRadio. I think people are massively underestimating what is going on... and its only (very) partially to do degening with monkey jpegs and dickbutts...
Let's talk...
An NFT is a "smart" "contract" "stored on a blockchain". We all know that.
But have you thought what that really means???
Well, there are 3 component parts:
"Contract" - almost every single agreement in society in the broadest sense is a contract - be it written, implied, verbal from religious vows to airline tickets, from meeting a friend for a rum or using Twitter. Contracts are literally a base layer of society that build on trust
"Stored on a blockchain" - all contracts are stored to set a record of them - handshakes, nods, rooms of lawyers, databases, blockchains, etc. They essentially are a settlement mechanism, whether disputed or agreed.
"smart" - the settlement mechanism is automated by code and resolves without the need for 3rd party enforcement - courts, lawyers, notaries, accountants, etc.
I won't bother to go into the decentralised element as I think you all get that by now. In a nutshell, decentralised databases are more secure and robust than centralised. Clearly, this could be a 50 tweet thread on this alone but I'll leave that to others.
Right now, people think of NFT as art or community. Both are amazing use cases for NFT's.
We will see all cultural assets digitised and tokenised. My friend and colleague and President of @sciencemagicxyz , Tareq Nazlawy, pioneered this with Adidas, proving that...
By transferring a very physical thing - a sneaker- into a digital thing, it had equivalent, or even more, value.
This was a HUGE step in understanding that the digital world has the same human drivers as the physical world - status, belonging, etc and that derives value.
@hirst_official split the art world by doing both digital and physical and giving people the choice (outcome was close to 50/50) or artists like @lphaCentauriKid moved from digital to physical or @beeple blew the art world apart by proving digital was as valuable a physical.
We seen the rise of community, art and culture like #rektguy or Yuga's #BAYC or @CryptoDickbutts, #mfers or whatever. So many amazing projects, it a cultural explosion!
We have seen the start of music NFT's from @RAC, the work of @Cooopahtroopa and @3LAU and others.
While the tokenisation of culture is almost infinite and has only just started, most people miss the even bigger picture...
ALL contracts will get tokenised as NFT's as they more efficient, cheaper, faster and more secure.
ALL: ID, tickets, reservations (hotels, airlines, trains, restaurants etc), all insurance contracts, internet permissions, hotel keys, car documents, real estate, certifications
...advertising, supply chain contracts, inventory management, business deals, driving licenses, medical records, employment history, references, etc etc... but it gets even bigger...
The entire financial industry is based around contracts at a truly VAST scale - too big for the old City of London "My Word is My Bond" system to work and a two party, audited ledger/database....
There are somewhere between $650trn and $4 QUADRILLION of derivatives, $250trn of equities, same in bonds, etc. These are all non-fungible contracts of sorts (some are large and some are 1 of 1's like a special OTC option)..
All asset management and funds will be tokenised too. It is much faster, accessible, transparent and more efficient.
AND the "smart" element of NFT's mean that enforcement or dispute resolution is automatic, cheaper and faster, as is "storage or ownership"
No one can get their heads around this.
Everyones anchors of a linear path of what is happening today but miss the BIG picture, which is truly exponential in nature.
Some of it will happen fast and some over time.
It also has other benefits...
It frees up velocity of money through less trapped capital, settlement, dispute, enforcement, etc. It makes the system infinitely less capital intensive. It is also transparent.
And it can create liquid(ish) secondary markets of all of it...creating capital efficiency
And you thought it was just about the BIG concept of ownership of digital assets in a digital age...
My frens... you are missing the REALLY BIG picture.
EVERYTHING will be tokenised.
NFT's, fungible tokens and blockchains (and who knows what else is to come) will run it all.
gn!
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For those that like DeMark - this is one hell of a cluster of 13's - I count 7! Probably the most Ive ever seen on a daily chart. 1/
And on the weekly is a 9-13-13-9 This suggests that the probability of a low around here is very significant.
There is a chance the weekly counts to one more 13 but the daily suggests its tough. Why?
The economic data rate of change has gone from increasing to decreasing. While levels remain higher than Fed wants, the trend is changing in Employment and Inflation.
Tech and crypto are forward looking. In the next 3 months we will have stopped thinking about rate hikes.
October is the month stock market crashes - It is also the month that kills bear markets...
Let's dig in... 1/
Most people remember 1987 as the most famous crash of all. October 18th 1987 is forever etched into all our minds... It was also a generational low.
Paul Tudor Jones famously nailed the '87 crash by overlaying 1929 - causing Twitter to use fractals very badly, all the time! (me included). The main part of the '29 crash came in October but bottomed in November.
A 50% rally followed and then the Depression set in until 1932.
It's the least fashionable view in the world but I think Exponential Age tech's are so incredibly game changing that this macro set up is one of the best gifts we will ever be given and most people won't take it because they rate interest rates/inflation over exponential growth
It's the rate of change of rates that hurts growth, not absolute rates and when we hit "terminal" rates the rate of change goes to zero (or negative if they cut).
AI/Metaverse/IoT/Longevity/Distributed Compute/Space/Robotics/Genetic Science/Blockchain/etc are all unstoppable...
Most people will miss all of this. Even Apple reinventing itself. Or Tesla. Or whatever "shitty, low cost of capital" business model. Everyone will miss that 100% YoY growth renders those fears invalid. This is secular, not cyclical... soon val's will be very attractive indeed.
Im mulling over an article for Global Macro Investor around the societal impact of the developments in AI (GPT-3, OpenAI, etc) and deep fakes. We are staring down the barrel of a big gun in terms of the damage this can do unless we solve for digital online identity....FAST. 1/
For society to even function, we will need to know who is real and who isn't, what is a true source of information, what is original, what AI is "authenticated/verified".
There is nothing wrong with AI but it too needs a digital identity.
Clearly, blockchain solves this but
To protect privacy we need zero knowledge proofs for authentication where possible, and we absolutely MUST HAVE interoperability of the authentication/ID tokens across platforms.
Some of the complexity is who will act are verification agents? or how else to solve it?