Thread by @Thorongil16

#CO03 has been pointed out as a sleeper based on early vote data from @GalenMetzger1 (CO data hype man).

Looking at the reg data, do I agree?

Definitely maybe. Thread below

Boebert is a shit candidate. The fact that this seat is competitive is 100% due to her being a shit candidate - Rs in a red year in the 3rd usually win by double digits, nearing 20 points. See: Tipton, Scott and McInnis, Scott

Looking at returned ballots, and using a 15% split in Eagle County (the portion of the county in CD3), there's a roughly 13k firewall for registered Rs - in 2020 this number was 32k and it was roughly similar in 2018.

The R+32k number comports with the c. 25-30k that Rs win it by each time. Unlike in the Front Range, indies are slightly right-leaning here.

Using some quick back of the napkin math we get that Trump/Boebert wins indies in CD3 with an R+4 margin.

That's our first baseline.

Second: the ED/mail split wont be as bad because 1) we are not in a pandemic and 2) CO is universal VBM - so the red shift is lessened due to late mail being mixed with other vote modalities

Pricing in redshift, we can look at how much each side will grow their registered partisans. Table 1 below - this is the estimated firewall based on what % registered Ds/Rs grow. Median case is c. R+17k. As @GalenMetzger1 has said, red wave really is not hitting the western slope

Table 2: indies are gonna grow their share. We know that R+4 in 2020 was the Trump share. Based on polling we know Boebert's approvals with indies are way worse but to be conservative we are assuming D+0 as a median case. Growing indy share gets us a median result of R+20k.

Looking at the vote totals and pcts, R+7 or so seems to be the mark. Galen disagrees with me here - but I am using intentionally conservative estimates. Roughly 1 in 12 chance of Frisch win, and for Frisch to match Biden in a red year just proves Boebert is a shit candidate.

D win condition:

1) Frisch has to win indies by >5%
2) Dems need to continue trends we've seen so far increasing vote shares into eday - this is achievable perhaps because as Galen says, R counties are already super high turnout
3) indies need a 140% increase from current #s

We at ST have it as Likely R
Galen has it at Leans R
Tbh depending on your assumption I might personally buy it - but this is pretty solid confirmation that Boebert is not safe.

End thread.