exit266 Profile picture
Nov 8 6 tweets 3 min read
This is a inaccurate take and I’m going to tell you why. This has far more to do with the suspension than an extension but both will have consequences in the coming days.🧵⬇️
#oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative
1. That little dip in ships leaving Odesa area ports which lasted for three days was entirely because when RU suspended it’s involvement in the BSGI it meant no inbound ships could be inspected. Once all the previously inspected ships had sailed they needed to wait Russia.
2. There are currently 9 ships inbound to Odesa, 6 ships at anchor waiting to enter port, and 16 ships moored and being loaded, that’s the highest volume we have seen during the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
3. I do expect to see a slow down in trips as we get closer to the renewal date but we know the insurance is on a seven day timeframe and I expect the slow down to roughly align with that.
4. “There are currently 80 vessels waiting to move into Ukrainian ports” - JCC. 80 ships are either hoping to get in before the cut off or expecting an extension.
5. The extension? Well Turkey’s National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar again said they are pushing for a term of one year, it may be closer than you think. tass.com/world/1533389

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More from @exit266

Nov 8
11 days left in the grain deal, 432 ships outbound carrying 10,110,425MT, 329 (+9) delivered carrying 6,798,625MT. 08Nov

Finally! A ship! I see a ship!!

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative Image
Another day, another ship full of sunflower oil headed to China. ImageImageImage
Nine ships delivered at various ports today. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Nov 7
12 days left in the grain deal, 431 ships outbound carrying 10,067,175MT, 320 (+9) delivered carrying 6,642,285MT. 07Nov
No ships leave Odesa for the third day.

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative Image
Spain continues to lead the way in exports from Ukraine. ImageImageImage
Only 25% of the ships who have left Odesa are still at sea, representing 33% of the MT of grains. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Nov 6
13 days left in the grain deal, 431 ships outbound carrying 10,067,175MT, 311 (+5) delivered carrying 6,490,305MT. 06Nov

MINES ARE A PROBLEM!

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #BlackSeaGrainInitiative
Seven ships travelled from the Bosphorus North Anchorage to Odesa area ports on 05Nov and all were inspected by joint teams. These ships are all at the Odesa anchorage currently.
A further two outbound ships were inspected by joint teams on 04Nov and two on 06Nov meaning those ships are able to proceed to their destination.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 5
14 days left in the grain deal, 431 ships outbound, 306 delivered, 10,067,175MT shipped and 6,333,255MT delivered. 05Nov

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative
China still with a hold on the Sunflower Meal at 65%, a reminder that often it's used as a high protein supplement for animals.
Six ships travelled from the Bosphorus North Anchorage to Odesa area ports through the humanitarian corridor. Brave, Rising Falcon, Plutus, Sally M, Tzarevich, Propus are confirmed.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
15 days left in the grain deal, 431 ships outbound, 299 delivered, 10,067,175MT shipped and 6,228,555MT delivered. 04Nov

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative Image
Nine more ships delivered. ImageImageImage
Only one ship travelled out of the humanitarian corridor today, the Mavka. And, almost ⅔’s of the grain shipped is now delivered. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Nov 4
Remember the Ocean Legend? She had started for Odesa area ports on 31Oct and promptly turned around half-way there. I had speculated to my team that her insurance had been dropped.
That was a big day for all of us who cover the Black Sea Grain Initiative and no one was able to tell us why at the time. It was confirmed this morning.
During her voyage into Odesa her insurance was revoked (due to the Russian suspension) so she sailed out with the flotilla and eventually to Constanta, Romania. She then informed the JCC she was pulling out of the Initiative altogether.
Read 5 tweets

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