This is a inaccurate take and I’m going to tell you why. This has far more to do with the suspension than an extension but both will have consequences in the coming days.🧵⬇️
https://twitter.com/CerasAnalytics/status/1590006562869121024?s=20&t=KMP8vibctj1zj32HPm4ICA#oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative
1. That little dip in ships leaving Odesa area ports which lasted for three days was entirely because when RU suspended it’s involvement in the BSGI it meant no inbound ships could be inspected. Once all the previously inspected ships had sailed they needed to wait Russia.
2. There are currently 9 ships inbound to Odesa, 6 ships at anchor waiting to enter port, and 16 ships moored and being loaded, that’s the highest volume we have seen during the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
3. I do expect to see a slow down in trips as we get closer to the renewal date but we know the insurance is on a seven day timeframe and I expect the slow down to roughly align with that.
4. “There are currently 80 vessels waiting to move into Ukrainian ports” - JCC. 80 ships are either hoping to get in before the cut off or expecting an extension.
5. The extension? Well Turkey’s National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar again said they are pushing for a term of one year, it may be closer than you think. tass.com/world/1533389
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
