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Nov 9 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
I am going to guess that Dems hold their 14-10 minority in the NH state Senate by flipping Biden +9 SD-11, which they lost barely in 2020.

Dem Shannon Chandley is down just 172 votes without her very Dem hometown of Amherst reporting. #NHPolitics
SD-12 also remains out, and Dems should lose SD-16 to redistricting.
Amherst has dropped at Hassan +19. No way Chandley doesn't win even if she underperforms by 5%.

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More from @norwood270

Sam Profile picture
Nov 7
FINAL UNH poll of NEW HAMPSHIRE

#NHSEN
Hassan (D-Inc): 50%
Bolduc (R): 48%

#NH01
Pappas (D-Inc): 50%
Leavitt (R): 49%

#NH02
Kuster (D-Inc): 53%
Burns (R): 45%

#NHGov
Sununu (R-Inc): 55%
Sherman (D): 43%

State Sen/House/EC
GOP +1/TIED/GOP +1

We are in for a hell of a night.
UNH nailed the presidential/senate & NH-01 margins in 2020 in their final poll. Pretty solid.
scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_…
Read 4 tweets
Sam Profile picture
Sep 16
#NHSen
Hassan (D): 51%
Bolduc (R): 40%

#NHGov
Sununu (R): 52%
Sherman (D): 38%

#NH01
Pappas: 47%
Leavitt: 42%

#NH02
Kuster (D): 54%
Burns (R): 36%

"Well if it isn't the consequences of my own actions" #NHPolitics
It's by far the least discussed race but Sununu winning by 15% sounds about right.

Less than half of his margin in 2020, but still a big win.
Independents are backing Hassan 48/36, Pappas 48/41, Kuster 49/37 & Sununu 53/35.
Read 4 tweets
Sam Profile picture
Sep 15
The MAGA sweep in New Hampshire included far-right former Hillsborough Treasurer Bob Burns defeating Sununu-backed Keene Mayor George Hansel in #NH02.

Burns labeled Hansel as "Woke George", racking up margins anywhere where there was a sizable GOP primary voter presence. Image
Hansel really collapsed in the Hillsborough portion of NH-02, which he needed to win. He even lost moderate R towns like Hollis

Former 2016 Libertarian Colorado Senate candidate Lilly Tang Williams, who was endorsed by some "liberty" types greatly outperformed expectations IMO.
Bob Burns does not live in NH-02. He has a PO Box in Pembroke, but all FEC documents point to his address in Bedford (NH-01).
Read 4 tweets
Sam Profile picture
Sep 15
NH State Primary Turnout/Party Spread in the past US Senate elections:

2022: 233,061 - 60% R, 40% D
2020: 290,918 - 51% D, 49% R
2014: 158,794 - 75% R, 25% D
2010: 188,706 - 74% R, 26% D
2008: 117,308 - 61% R, 39% R

Only 2010 & 2020 had a competitive GOP primary. #NHPolitics
Republican votes cast in Bedford over those years

2022: 4,692 - 68% R, 32% D
2020: 5,657 - 54% R, 46% R
2016: 3,855 - 74% R, 27% D
2014: 3,579 - 88% R, 12% D

2020 was the last time we had competitive D/R primaries statewide. Still, we're not going back to 2014.
...or even 2016
Read 5 tweets

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