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David H. Montgomery Profile picture
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Nov 9 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
I haven't adjusted for where the vote is outstanding, but as of right now, DFLers are winning in 70 #mnleg House seats (majority: 68) while Republicans are leading in 35 #mnleg Senate seats (majority: 34). Would represent a status quo in terms of control.
After another ~50 minutes of votes coming in, the DFL currently has a lead in 72 of the #mnleg House seats (majority: 68) and in 34 of the Senate seats (majority: 34).

Still votes coming in, but fewer by the minute.
Pulled the numbers again at 1:55 a.m. — no changes.

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More from @dhmontgomery

David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Nov 7
#rstats: I've got a dataframe with some gnarly column names — sentences from a survey questionnaire.

I have a tibble with the shortname I want to replace each long column name with.

How can I batch rename this

Difficulty: no pivoting, needs to work if a column disappears.
I can't pivot because that would wipe out factor orders. The exact questions in each survey vary a little — I have all the possible variations in my tibble, but something that relies on an exact list of columns appearing in an exact order won't work.
I've tried tinkering with rename_with() but no luck so far.
Read 4 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Nov 5
There's been a lot of talk about supposed "election fraud" lately, so let's check in with some of the great masters of electoral shenanigans.

By now you know where I'm going with this — we're talking about the government of Bourbon Restoration France. THREAD:
2/ This thread is adapted from my history podcast, @TheSiecle. If you like this thread you should probably check it out! Available wherever you get podcasts, or read my full annotated transcripts online at thesiecle.com

I recommend starting from the beginning.
3/ The Bourbon Restoration ran from 1814 to 1830 (with a little Napoleon-shaped speedbump in there) and saw the brothers of the guillotined King Louis XVI rule.

But the Restoration wasn't an ancien régime absolute monarchy. No, the Bourbons had to accept a CONSTITUTION.
Read 37 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Nov 3
Is Minnesota in the early stages of another fall #COVID19 wave? We can only guess.

Last week we saw hospitalizations rise making me think it more likely we were in a wave.

But this week saw COVID hospitalizations fall again, leading me to a downward adjustment in probability.
Non-ICU COVID hospital bed use, which had been worryingly mirroring last fall's trends, broke away a little bit this week.

Meanwhile ICU COVID bed usage is a fraction of past levels with no signs of rising.
The ICU bed trend could reflect lots of things, including higher immunity levels among vulnerable adults, better treatments for serious COVID infections than we had in the past, and perhaps a changing share in the with/for dynamic for less serious non-ICU hospitalizations.
Read 9 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Nov 3
The brilliance of Tolkien is that The Shire feels so REAL even though a moment's thought reveals it to be both absurd and incoherent with the rest of his Middle Earth worldbuilding.
The biggest issue, of course, is economic (Tolkien's weakest area of worldbuilding). The sophistication and abundance of consumer goods in The Shire makes no sense for a largely rural, mostly autarkic society.
The reason for this incongruity, of course, is that while places like Rohan and Gondor were inspired by real pre-industrial societies that Tolkien knew intimately, The Shire was inspired by... the Late Victorian rural England that Tolkien knew intimately.
Read 5 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Nov 2
For this post I'm ignoring most of this to focus on one historical claim: "You must do as Lincoln did. He... issued an arrest warrant for SCOTUS Chief Justice Taney."

Now, Lincoln did not issue such a warrant. But he *maybe* drafted one — though the evidence is very sketchy.
Wikipedia has a page called "Taney Arrest Warrant," calling it a "conjectural controversy in Abraham Lincoln scholarship."

The sole source that Lincoln secretly drafted a warrant to arrest the chief justice is a later statement by Lincoln's friend & bodyguard Ward Hill Lamon.
Lamon might have been in a position to know. But no one else close to Lincoln at the time ever claimed such a thing, and most Lincoln scholars conclude "there never was any arrest warrant." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taney_Arr…
Read 5 tweets
David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Nov 1
POLL: Which of these leitmotifs from Howard Shore's #LordOfTheRings score do you think is the most *iconic*? (Not the best or your favorite.)

Links to samples in the replies.
The Ring Theme:
The Shire Theme:
Read 4 tweets

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