Thread by @YossiGestetner

People want to make every election win/loss about Trump/not Trump.

Trump campaigned endlessly with JDV in OH; he won by 6.6.

Odea in Colorado made anti-Trumpism his banner issue and he lost by double digits.

cc @mattklewis @EWErickson @benshapiro @SeanTrende @AnnCoulter

Zeldin didn't hug or run from Trump and lost by only 5+ in a deep-blue state!

Dems and kept hammering him on Trump. Maybe if he embraced Trump he could've made up the gap from pro-Trumpers since anti-Trumpers anyway got the anti-Trump message from Dems.

Who knows.

Then there is the part of Never/Non-Trumpers saying that X can't win yet those Never/Non-Trumpers either don't vote for X or even actively oppose X. When X loses, the Nevers are all "HAHA. We TOLD YOU they can't win!"

See what @KarlRove did in #PAGov against the GOPer.

In Georgia, @BrianKempGA campaigned plenty that he signed laws into place to strengthen the elections; a move made as a result of 2020 concerns, so it's false to claim that election integrity is not a workable issue.

Trump has weaknesses that @RonDeSantisFL @BrianKempGA (back stabbed by Trump on lockdowns) and @GlennYoungkin do not have. HOWEVER: Front-name Republicans R dragged down if they R out front long enough no matter how GREAT they are. Look at Nixon, Ford, Bush Sr and Bush Jr! More:

Things with Bush 43 were so bad that he skipped the 2012 election and the GOP didn't mention his name at the convention while Obama/Biden kept hammering the GOP about Bush; same as they are doing with Trump and GOP is running once again; not tapping into own-base support.

In 2018, the incumbent #NYGov won by a margin of 23 points in a Dem wave year while Trump was POTUS.

In 2022, the incumbent #NYGov won by only 5.5 points in a flat Republican year against a candidate that was attacked as "MAGA."

More proof that whatever happens Blame Trump.

🤡

Trump (less than) Biden has challenges, but

A) Every long-time GOP got crushed by the machine including Reagan who never had the House; lost Senate in 1986.

B) Many of those who yell how weak Trump is, fuel his weakness as a result of A.

C) Well, A and then B will always be!

Another point about the blame Trump movement: They pretend that the GOP was winning POTUS, Senate and House majorities for decades until Trump came and messed it all up for them starting in June 2015.

Hardly the case. Look it up.

After four years of Trump, Dems have 50 Senate seats and 222 House Seat. "OMG! Trump is SO BAD! LET'S RUN FROM HIM."

After two years of Biden, GOP has 50 Senate seats and 222 House Seat. "WOW! Biden is AMAZING! He deserves the 2024 Dem nomination."

🤡

Oh, and don't get me started on the @LeaderMcConnell-aligned Super PAC letting the #AZAen GOP candidate out to dry; @GOPGovs not investing too much in MI, and Rove's PAC essentially promoting Shapiro in PA.

"Fair points Yossi, but what about Trump's candidate quality" (including those backstabbed by the Machine)?

Loeffler in GA was not Trump's. Lost 1/5/21.

McSally lost an #AZSen seat in 2018. Machine gave her another seat which she lost in 2020.

cc @AriFleischer @EWErickson

"Yossi. GOP losses in 2018 and 2020 are Trump's fault."

Um, if GOP outcomes are his then wins are his too including leaving the GOP with 50 Senate seats while Romney 2012 left the GOP with 45, and the end of Bush left the GOP with 41 seats.

If you kept up until here, we can move to the point that Dems and their Media tell the GOP what is good/not good for them, and like prisoners in a gulag the GOP fights among themselves thinking the guards will be nice if only the prisoners follow rules. Sad. Really.

Candidate quality matters which is why Media/Dem-Base Darlings @staceyabrams and @BetoORourke both lost by sizable margins.

Oh wait.

How did those Repeat Dems lose this bad?

Pelosi with 222 seats delivered for the Radical Left more than what @SpeakerRyan deliverer with 241 seats to mainstream GOP. Same is Schumer with 47 seats under Trump compared to @LeaderMcConnell with 50.

Dems win to govern so they win again.

GOP wins to win again so they lose.

My point is that on Policy and on the Politics of Politics, @HouseDemocrats from the narrowest of districts deliver to the Radical Left without fear of losing while the GOP runs away from topic after topic; largely in-line with what their captures tell them to. Sad.

👀👇🏼👀 @GlennYoungkin campaigned up and down in VA and his candidates had massive losses.

"Yossi because of Trump."

Clown stuff. You blame Trump when the GOP loses and you credit others when they win. This is dishonest.

cc @MZHemingway

In NY, @leezeldin was attacked as "MAGA Zeldin," and he didn't run from or embrace Trump. In fact, on the debate stage he noted the good that Trump did for NY.

Result? He had the best #NYGOV showing for a GOP here since 2002 and NY was a bright spot for Republicans on Tuesday.

The point is not that Trump is the future or that all his candidates are great. The point is Trump is a factor because he was the previous GOP POTUS so Dems use him regardless what the GOP does.
They did it with Bush in 2012 despite Bush "going away" and GOPs not mentioning him.

Another key point about the Midterms: The outside party is usually more likely to be angry and therefore stay in lines to vote. However, due to expanded mail-in laws, calm/disinterested Dems easily voted from home blunting the GOP's edge now and in 2020. Mail-ins favor Dems.

TV pundits R too pro-Dem to see this of anything outside/beyond Trump, and suckers are such Republicans that they fall for it!

Dems and their Media got GOPs to run from their last 2 GOP presidents, while the one before didn't win reelection and Dole, McCain Romney lost outright!

In addition to the fact that disinterested voters can easily vote from home through mail-in ballots and therefore the usual midterm edge to the outside/angry party is gone, mail-ins as a voting tool favors Democrats regardless the election set up. cc @AriFleischer @MZHemingway

GOP POTUS politics:

Nixon (1960), Goldwater, Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney LOST.

Nixon later resigned.

Bush Sr Lost Reelection.

Bush Jr left with a 25%; Party Ran from Him.

Reagan won fully but Never had the House; lost Senate.

Yet DC GOP's think Trump is the problem.

DC GOPs were bot on TV or in the WSJ op-ed page demanding that McCain should disappear after the 2008 GOP losses or Romney to do so after 2012. But they demand it from the person who won the WH for the GOP and who left the GOP with more House/Senate than most GOP nominees.

DC GOPs were not on TV or in the WSJ op-ed page demanding that McCain should disappear after the 2008 GOP losses or Romney to do so after 2012. But they demand it from the person who won the WH for the GOP and who left the GOP with more House/Senate than most GOP nominees.

Trump's midterm leaves the other party with 47 Senate Seats. "OMG TRUMP IS BAD FOR THE GOP."

Biden's midterms leaves the other party with 50 seats: "BIDEN IS AMAZING!"

Unlike @LeaderMcConnell, Schumer in 2018 didn't let a few candidates out to dry and still got only 47 seats.

Senate Seats for the POTUS Party after the first midterm:

44 Bush Sr. 1990

48 Clinton 1994

51 Bush Jr. 2002

51 Obama 2010

50 Biden 2022

53 Trump 2018.

53 is best for any recent POTUS.

RUN FROM TRUMP! RUN! HE IS BAD FOR THE GOP!

Useful idiots.

Since Prez Hoover, Republicans had some of their best House seat counts under Obama/Biden.

242 in 2010 midterms.

247 in 2014 midterms.

242 in the 2016 General (when Obama/Biden were in the WH).

Yet national Dems and lib pundits didn't trip over each other to dump Obama.

When Obama/Biden ran in 2008, Dems won:

- The White House

- 257 House seats.

- 59 Senate Seats.

At the tail end of the Obama/Biden Admin in 2016, Dems:

- Lost the WH

- Won only 194 House Seats

- Won Only 46 Senate Seats

"Time to move on from Obama," no sane Democrat said.

PA for the GOP:

10 point loss by McCain 2008.

5.4 point loss by Romney 2012.

4.2 loss Bush 2000.

2.5 loss Bush 2004.

1.2 loss Trump 2020.

0.7% win Trump 2016 (#PASsn win too).

GOP 2020 without Trump: Wipe out.

Conclusion by GOP Machine/Half the Base: Trump Bad.

I didn't notice until tonight, five days after the midterms, that @SenateDems defended only 14 seats while Republicans needed to defend 21.

Goes to show how all the Trump-this/Teump that talk the last 5 says is void of basic facts.

Thanks @marklevinshow for bringing this up.

100% of Old Media and as a result 75% of Con Media is on the Blame Trump train, so I don't assume that anyone will validate any point/claim other than their narrative. It's difficult even for Fair-to-Trump people to hear anything but the narrative being pushed everywhere. Sad.

BTW, after the 2010 midterms when the GOP picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats, no same Dem ran around saying "Obama/Biden R a drag on the party." To the contrary, Media & GOP Establishment "blamed" the TP for "losing" winnable seats. They didn't get credit for the gains!

Is it possible that some seats were winnable if not for Tea Party candidates? Sure but the TP cut both ways: Had they been cnon-extent, the GOP wouldn't have these massive gains either. But point here is that a better GOP last week would not be greeted with cheers.

Dems ran against Trump and despite 21 @SenateGOP seats being up compared to only 14 @SenateDems, the GOP maybe lost one seat.

Quite a flop for the @dscc...

Interesting data from #MDGov the last few cycles:

14.4 GOP loss in 2010.

3.7 GOP win in 2014.

11.9 GOP win in Trump's midterm.

27.4 GOP loss in 2022 after 8 years of @LarryHogan.

Best showing for GOP was with Trump in the WH.

🤷‍♂️

🔥🔥 VIDEO 🔥🔥

Zeldin rejected some electors on 1/6, and was branded as MAGA.

Zeldin used the debate stage to list to many things that Trump was good for NY.

He then went on to have the best GOP showing in 20 years and won the House for the GOP because the base showed up.

Notice how the Dem Governor was certain that she has the knockout question against Zeldin who would certainly run for the hills because that's the narrative in political circles. But Zeldin held his ground. He didn't suppress GOP turnout by running from or piling onto Trump.

Those piling onto Trump while cheering Zeldin, R clueless about the dynamics in NY.

See 2 tweets above how he handled Trump at the debate, and see below how the Times wrote about him.

Dems anyway used Trump against GOPs. Made no sense for GOPs to run and suppresses GOP votes!

In the midterms 6 years after Obama was first elected POTUS, @HouseDemocrats ended up with only 188 seats.

In the midterms 6 years after Trump was first elected, the GOP is ending with around 220 seats.

In the Senate it was 46 for Dems; 49 or 50 for the GOP.

RUN FROM DJT! RUN!

Zeldin, if you look at the polls, almost won #NYGov, but then Youngkin and DeSantis campaigned for him 9-10 days before the election and he lost.

Trump didn't campaign for him and Zeldin lost.

Folks, we can spin whatever and however we all want -- It just matters on preference.