ISW Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
The battle of #Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase—prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely. /1
2/ The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the #Kherson direction since August—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw across the #Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded.
3/ As @TheStudyofWar has observed over the previous months, Ukrainian forces engaged in a purposeful and well-executed campaign to target Russian concentration areas, military assets, and logistics nodes throughout #Kherson Oblast... make continued Russian positions on the west bank untenable without having to conduct large-scale and costly ground maneuvers to liberate territory.
4/ Ukrainian troops launched constant attacks on bridges across the #Dnipro River and targeted supply centers and ammunition depots on the east bank of the Dnipro that degraded the ability of Russian forces to supply the grouping on the west bank...
...Ukrainian forces combined these strikes with prudent and successful ground attacks on key locations such as Davydiv Brid.
5/ This campaign has come to fruition. #Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in #Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank.
6/ Russian sources noted that the withdrawal is a natural consequence of targeted and systematic Ukrainian strikes that cost the Russian grouping on the west bank its major supply arteries, which gradually attritted their overall strength and capabilities.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Jan 27
Southern #Ukraine: #Zaporizhia Oblast

Ukrainian officials reported on January 26 that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Obl. aren't conducting offensive operations at the size or scale necessary for a full-scale offensive, supporting ISW’s previous assessment. ImageImage
2/ Russian milbloggers, including one who has been proven to have fabricated false information about the situation on the front lines, claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces fought near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, and Novopokrovka.
3/ One Russian milblogger characterized Russian offensive operations in the area as a “positional offensive” and claimed that the front line has not changed, supporting ISW’s prior assessment that the pace and effectiveness of claimed Russian ground attacks in the area are low.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western #Luhansk Oblast

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops relaunched counteroffensive operations near #Kreminna on January 26. ImageImage
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces launched offensive operations against 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) positions near #Kreminna on the night of January 25.
3/ The source claimed that the 144th Motorized Rifle Division repelled the attack and forced Ukrainian troops to retreat to their original positions, but that Ukrainian troops re-initiated attempts to attack Russian positions from the direction of Torske on the morning of 26 JAN.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
NEW: Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across #Ukraine on Jan. 26. Russian forces have enough drones for only a few more large-scale strikes unless they have received or will soon receive a new shipment from #Iran. ImageImageImageImage
2/ A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia against the backdrop of Russian military failures in #Ukraine.
3/ Russian President Vladimir #Putin continued his campaign against critical and opposition voices by cracking down on several major opposition media outlets.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers attempted to play down the Western provision of tanks to #Ukraine, indicating that they likely find these systems threatening to Russian prospects. Image
2/ Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on 25 JAN that the Western provision of Abrams & Leopard tanks to Ukraine is "quite a failure…in terms of technological aspects" and that there is a "clear overestimation of the potential that [these tanks] will add" to Kyiv's forces.
3/ Some Russian milbloggers likely sought to reassure their domestic audiences by claiming that these systems do not pose a significant threat and that previous Western systems like HIMARS are a far more serious threat.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 26
The array of conventional forces across the Luhansk Obl. frontline suggests that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in this sector, likely offensive, supported by limited spoiling attacks elsewhere on the frontline to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces. 1/6
2/ ISW recently discussed indicators of a potential decisive Russian effort in Luhansk. Taken in tandem with a variety of intelligence statements that #Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive operation in the coming months, it's likely the Luhansk effort would be offensive.
3/ The most probable course of a Russian offensive action in #Luhansk Oblast would be premised on launching an attack along the Svatove-Kreminna line, supported by critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run into major logistics hubs in Luhansk City and Starobilsk...
Read 6 tweets
Jan 26
The Russian military's shift in focus towards conventional forces is also increasingly apparent on the operational and tactical levels. (1/4)
2/ Various conventional elements (namely from the 3rd Motor Rifle Division and Airborne Forces) have been arrayed across the Svatove-Kreminna line in #Luhansk Oblast and are notably not supporting Wagner Group operations around #Bakhmut...
3/ ...indicating that Russian military leadership may be allocating conventional forces to what they regard as a more promising axis of advance.
Read 4 tweets

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