Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The battle of #Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase—prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely. /1 isw.pub/UkrWar110922
2/ The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the #Kherson direction since August—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw across the #Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded.
3/ As @TheStudyofWar has observed over the previous months, Ukrainian forces engaged in a purposeful and well-executed campaign to target Russian concentration areas, military assets, and logistics nodes throughout #Kherson Oblast...
...to make continued Russian positions on the west bank untenable without having to conduct large-scale and costly ground maneuvers to liberate territory.
4/ Ukrainian troops launched constant attacks on bridges across the #Dnipro River and targeted supply centers and ammunition depots on the east bank of the Dnipro that degraded the ability of Russian forces to supply the grouping on the west bank...
...Ukrainian forces combined these strikes with prudent and successful ground attacks on key locations such as Davydiv Brid.
5/ This campaign has come to fruition. #Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in #Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank.
6/ Russian sources noted that the withdrawal is a natural consequence of targeted and systematic Ukrainian strikes that cost the Russian grouping on the west bank its major supply arteries, which gradually attritted their overall strength and capabilities. isw.pub/UkrWar110922

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Jul 27
NEW: The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' AOR in Donetsk, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritized the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational maneuver force in the Avdiivka direction. (🧵1/6)Image
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2/ The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia's main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.
3/ The Russian military command established the Central Grouping of Forces as an operational maneuver force along a narrow front in the Avdiivka area following the seizure of Avdiivka in Feb 2024 and tasked CMD elements with exploiting Russian tactical advances and pushing as far west as possible before Ukrainian forces established more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 26
Map Updates 🧵(1/4)

Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City amid continued assaults north and northeast of Kharkiv City on July 25. Geolocated footage published on July 24 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Hlyboke.

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2/ Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Geolocated footage published on July 25 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Slavna Street within northern Zalizne (southeast of Toretsk) and along Zaporizka Street in central Zalizne.
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3/ Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar on July 25 but did not make any confirmed gains.

Russian forces reportedly continued to advance northwest of Avdiivka on July 25, but there were no confirmed changes in the area.
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time. 🧵(1/8)Image
2/ The Russian military has extensively relied on refurbishing stocks of Soviet-era weapons and military equipment, particularly armored vehicles, to sustain the tempo of its offensive operations in Ukraine.
3/ The Russian government will likely have to further mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry if the Russian military intends to sustain its current tempo of operations in the medium- to long-term as Russia depletes its finite Soviet stockpiles, but it is unclear if the Russian defense industry will be able to produce enough vehicles to sustain a high level of equipment losses even with further economic mobilization.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 26
NEW: Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24.
🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.
3/ ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia's four-month-long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 25
Russia's ongoing force-generation efforts have allowed Russian forces to sustain their current tempo of offensive operations and maintain their current personnel replacement rate in Ukraine. (1/4)
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2/ Russian force-generation efforts so far have not enabled Russian forces to build up a significantly larger force in Ukraine and the Russian military remains incapable of conducting significantly intensified large-scale Russian offensive operations.
3/ Syrskyi's statements highlight that Ukrainian forces have successfully defended and liberated territory in the face of a Russian military with significant manpower and material advantages over the past two and a half years.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
NEW: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years, but Syrskyi's statement is not indicative of a sudden increase in the Russian military's presence in Ukraine and is instead representative of the manpower and material disadvantage that Ukrainian forces have faced for over two years. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ Syrskyi told UK outlet The Guardian in an interview published on July 24 that Russian forces currently have 520,000 personnel committed to the war in Ukraine and that the Russian military aims to have 690,000 personnel committed to the war by the end of 2024.
3/ Syrskyi noted that fighting is ongoing along 977 kilometers of the 3,700-kilometer-long frontline and reiterated that the Russian military command continues to pursue tactical gains regardless of significant manpower losses, while Ukrainian forces are attempting to safeguard the lives of Ukrainian troops.
Read 6 tweets

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