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Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
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Nov 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Latest Arizona numbers via @NYTimes...all 4 Dems are slowly padding their leads...
Latest Nevada numbers via @NYTimes...no change to AG or SOS, but Gov & Senate inched towards Dems some more. #NXP
I'm gonna remove AG from Nevada since it's actually been called for Ford at this point.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Cortez Masto & Francisco Aguilar have a solid shot at winning but Sisolak can't close the gap, but we'll see...
Whoops! Hold the phone...NV SOS just updated as well, and Aguilar just took the lead!
Another ARIZONA update! Kelly & Fontes are now well over 100K ahead, Hobbs is now up nearly 27K, and Mayes is up 16K!

75% of the vote in.

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
Nov 12
📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.

The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
In the case of #GASenate, if Raphael Warnock ends up winning the upcoming runoff election by less than ~5,700 votes, I would also put it in this category.

TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
Nov 11
House state of play (h/t @Taniel & @Fritschner; I just gussied up the table a bit, including adding the current vote margins & % reported via the NY Times).

If Dems hold all seats they're currently leading in *and* flip 5 of the 10 currently w/GOP leading, they get to 218. Image
Whoops...the margin cell for MD-06 should be orange instead of blue...but it's my understanding that that one is expected to flip blue soon anyway...
IMPORTANT: Notice that the California races (which make up 10 of the 17 listed) have only reported an average of 55% of their votes so far!

I have no clue where the other ~45% are located but all 10 of them could *easily* change.
Read 4 tweets
Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
Nov 9
📣 Now that it's no longer theoretical, several people have asked the "Elephant in the Room" question: Did the higher GOP COVID death rate, due to their dramatically higher refusal to wear masks, socially distance or get vaccinated, impact any races? 1/
acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
In September I posted my final update to an occasional analysis of the COVID data vs. 2020 Trump/Biden voting data. I don't have enough data to drill down to the Congressional District level, but I came up with what I think are reasonable *statewide* estimates of the gap. 2/
There's a handful of states where it *might* have made the difference in some statewide races. My estimates for *how many more Trump voters have died of COVID than Biden voters* in those are: 3/

AZ: ~4,100
GA: ~5,700
MI: ~3,700
NV: ~2,400
PA: ~7,800
WI: ~2,700
Read 15 tweets
Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
Nov 9
OH COME ON. Image
Here's where Arizona stands at the moment, via @nytimes: Kelly up by ~90K, Hobbs up by ~11.7K, Fontes up by ~84.5K, Mayes up by ~4K.

Only 2/3 of the vote in for each, however; I have no idea how the remainder is expected to break. ImageImageImageImage
Here's where Nevada stands at the moment, via @nytimes: Sisolak *down* by ~40K, Cortez Masto *down* by ~22.6K, Aguilar *down* by ~9.3K, Ford *up* by ~35K.

...all with ~3/4 of the vote in. Again, no idea how the remainder breaks. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
Nov 9
OK, folks, I'm still bleary-eyed: I know Michigan Dems flipped both the state House and Senate, and that Minnesota DFL flipped the state Senate. What other noteworthy *state legislative* news is there so far?
For what it's worth, here's how much I raised for the Dems running in the 7 closest state Senate races, and how they fared.
Also FWIW, here's how much I raised for the Dems running in the 29 closest state House races, and how most of them fared (I don't know the results of 8 of them yet, though I'm assuming they all lost except possibly Reggie Miller?)
Read 5 tweets
Charles Gaba (Had a blue check pre-11/07/22) Profile picture
Nov 9
Good morning! Sounds like Dems did about as well overall as they reasonably could’ve under the circumstances.
As a native Michigander I’m thrilled at the news that it sounds like we had a great night, apparently including flipping both the state Senate and House?
Nationally, it sounds like in the Senate we gained Fetterman but *may* have lost Cortez Masto and/or Kelly, w/Georgia possibly going to another runoff?
Read 5 tweets

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