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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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Nov 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Trump +17 county, and the results before this batch were Lake +16. Not sure that's what Rs want...and definitely not what Masters wants (this is frankly embarrassing for him at this point).
Still a coin flip IMO, too much unknown about what's left. Be wary of anyone saying either party's got this in the bag. They don't.
uh, yeah, another not-good result for Rs here
(and yes, the coin-flip is referring to #AZGov. Unclear who's going to come out ahead there. Everyone knows who's favored in #AZSen and #AZSOS)

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 12
One weird thing about this cycle is that each state had its own environment. Virginia had a modest red wave, New York had a pretty heavy one, Florida a red tsunami, and Pennsylvania/Michigan an effective blue wave.
I think this cycle will be one of the hardest to do retrospective modeling for and I have a feeling I’m going to need to incorporate gubernatorial numbers in some way to better gauge statewide environments, because otherwise this is going to be impossible.
I think, once I do that and adjust for money spent, the worst candidates are going to be as follows…

1) Blake Masters
2) Herschel Walker
3) JD Vance
4) Mehmet Oz
5) Adam Laxalt
6) Ron Johnson

Not sure who edges out the top spot between Masters + Walker. Real all-star cast here
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 12
Among the funniest things in every batch is how Blake Masters consistently gets the lowest vote share of any Republican on the ballot. Good argument that he's the worst nominee of the cycle for Republicans.
I'm a bit more sympathetic to Oz because looking at the notion of gubernatorial coattails in several key battlegrounds, it was always going to be hard for him to win when Mastriano was on the ticket (not that he made it any easier for himself).
I'll confess I didn't really fully buy into the notion of strong gubernatorial coattails on federal races and thought the impact would be somewhat marginal. I think it was greater than I expected -- it'll be something I keep in mind next time. No way I'd have PA going R again.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 12
I *really* don't see a path for Laxalt here any longer. Washoe should put CCM over the top; this was an absolute disaster of a batch for him, because he needed to keep her margins in the mid-teens to stand a chance and instead he lost it by 30.
Networks are going to be conservative, and nobody will call this race until CCM officially takes the lead because this is going to decide control of the US Senate before the runoffs even happen. But it's very clear *why* team Laxalt is texting others that they think they've lost.
There are a few rural ballots left; however, good margins with the rest of the Clark mail and Washoe should pretty much cancel those out and then some, and then it'll be down to provisionals
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 11
For what it's worth, there were plenty of red flags around Trafalgar's methodology, transparency, and lack of adherence to industry standards in our original @SplitTicket_ deep dive. I'd encourage folks curious to read it again. split-ticket.org/2022/09/19/wha…
@SplitTicket_ firstly, that's not *at all* how you actually calculate response rate, especially for polls conducted using multiple modes of voter contact. It's a good deal more complex than that and there are different AAPOR definitions of it, but Trafalgar obeys none of them.
"In many states, [the ratio] was four or five [Republican outreaches] to one [Democratic outreach]”

That does not line up with the response rates others had in 2020. I do believe they actually contact voters, but they clearly add a ton of extra Rs via the "shy Trump voter theory
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 11
us libs would be so owned if Ron Johnson became Senate Majority Leader. we must not let it happen!
Imagine how positively the American electorate would respond to fiscal responsibility being restored to Social Security and Medicare. They can't continue to get funding from the government forever. They need involvement and backing from crypto and the private sector!
All true patriots must back Ron Johnson and Rick Scott for Senate Leadership and encourage them to reveal their plans for Social Security and Medicare🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Nov 11
Good piece -- polls this year were actually quite good and most models and many polls on both sides really underestimated Democrats on balance. It's another good reminder: polling error does not correlate cycle to cycle, and it's dangerous to assume that it'll always go one way.
In 2014, Democrats swore up and down that they'd win the Senate because polls kept undercounting them. That went about as well as you'd expect. Generally, a party saying "we'll win because polling doesn't work in our favor" isn't a good strategy for the long-term.
Our aggregator @SplitTicket_ showed a statistical dead heat on the generic ballot. But the reason it'll likely end up being somewhat close to the national environment doesn't really have much to do with the design of the aggregator beyond refusing to accept partisan polls.
Read 5 tweets

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