Shyam Sekhar Profile picture
Nov 11 7 tweets 3 min read
This is for #Nykaa investors.
Assume you hold 100 Nykaa shares from the #IPO.
The IPO price was 1125.
A 5:1 bonus was issued.
Today you own 600 shares.
The cost of your original 100 shares will be your IPO purchase price.
If you sell now at 175, let's see the overall impact. 1/n
First , let us see the tax impact.
Your original 100 shares cost ₹1125.
IPO listing date was November 11, 2021. Share allotment date was between November 1 and 8, 2021.

If you sold your original 100 shares at ₹175, you attract a long term capital loss of ₹950. #Nykaa 2/n
Now to the bonus shares of 500. The cost of these 500 shares will be zero.
When you sell them within a year from the allotment date of the bonus shares, you will attract a short-term capital gains tax of 15%.

In reality, you never made a profit. You actually made ₹75 loss. 3/n
Assume you sell bonus shares for ₹225.On bonus shares, you pay a tax of ₹168.75. On the original IPO allotted shares, your L.T loss reduces to ₹900 if you sell them at 225.

You still pay ₹168.75 STCG.

But, how much profit did you actually make from the #Nykaa #IPO? 4/n
So if you exit #Nykaa fully at ₹225, you create LT loss of ₹900 to be adjusted against profits ( not sure if retail investors have LTCG to adjust). And you pay ₹168.75 taxes( not including any surcharge).
Net-Net, you realise ₹1350, which drops to ₹1181.25 post tax. 5/n
So what's so odd about board's bonus decision?
First, the intent.
Second, the timing.
The timing raises serious doubts on the intent.
What has #Nykaa achieved in its biz to reward shareholders within a year of listing?
Why did board push a bonus that hurts retail investors? 6/n
Clearly, #Nykaa fails the smell test. When a Co with founders from investment banking industry does this, it is like a 9/11 fire alarm for corporate governance in India.
Clearly, the independent directors have failed in their duty. Shareholders are victims. Alarm must ring. 7/7.

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More from @shyamsek

Sep 18
Assume your stock is trading at 1000.
PE is 50.
EPS is 20.
If earnings go up by 15% &
PE multiple falls by 30% .
What will be the impact on your investment?

If you understand this simple math, it will help you learn what 100 videos on #BAAP #Quality stocks don't teach you.
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PE is 75.
EPS is 20.
If earnings go up by 15% &
PE multiple falls by 30% .
What will be the impact on your investment?

When PE is higher, derating can hurt far more. If you fall from a higher place, then the injury will be worse.
Simple.
Assume your stock is trading at 2000.
PE is 100.
EPS is 20.
If earnings go up by 15% &
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Imagine the PE contracts and earnings expand at the same rate 2 years in a row.

What will be the impact on your investment?

What if this happens 3 years in a row?
Read 4 tweets
May 23
Here is a thread on #SBI. It simply shows what storytelling is lying all the time to you.
"Changing timelines can change the Narrative and numbers." The next line of defense is just about to be taken down. So,here is the first image that seems to support that arugument. But, wait.
"But,how do I know when to buy and sell. I need enough track record or clear buy signals." This crowd would have failed miserably because when the signals and charts were perfect, only losses followed.
Read 5 tweets
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The space where institutions don’t own any shares, or own insignificant part of the equity maybe the GoTo place for new ideas.

If you can find five to seven good companies in the next two years and buy enough of them, you are going to remember this phase all your life.

1/5
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By not buying stocks which are heavily institutionally owned, you will avoid facing the brutal selling and seeing your portfolio value go down very badly. This risk is real in illiquid stocks especially in #smallcap and #midcap space. Escape the drawdown and steer to safety. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
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A #PMS must show performance. No escaping it. But,the crucial questions for an investor to choose a PMS must be more nuanced. What fee do I pay in bad times? Do i pay more fees in good times? Is the product going to do anything special for me if i wish to be more ambitious? 1/7
A #PMS which mechanically invests money into its model portfolio just like a mutual fund usually does can only offer you a mediocre experience.

Investing is commoditized and mechanized. Some dealer is blindly filling up stocks like a petrol pump attendant fills your car tank.2/7
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Feb 16
When I look back at what mattered most in early years of investing, the answer is simple.

Avoiding permanent loss of capital.

This always happens when markets reverse from a peak & we are stuck in the wrong stocks.Also, stock specific risks are felt more then. @ithoughtmfd 1/n
In previous bull runs, we had two sides to the market. One, richly valued. Another, under valued.

Now, markets are far more expensive across the board. Valuation excesses are all around, including in mediocre companies. The scope to lose money has risen more. @ithoughtmfd 2/n
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Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
In investing, choices matter. Even with the right choices, you need a sound investment process. Where you invest, how you deploy & how you manage the investment journey are 3 critical success factors.

Product investing like MF's & ETF's need this even more. @ithoughtmfd 1/n
Bull markets and past performance in euphoric times make fund investing look too easy. Bear markets make the same MF's look difficult to hold on. Recent performance often misleads more than it guides you. Sustainability often fails to show up in past performance. @ithoughtmfd 2/n
Selecting the best products is an art. So, when you simplify fund selection to rely only on past performance, you select funds as their performance is probably peaking out. Most people often do just this. In bull runs, such products are easily missold to them. @ithoughtmfd 3/n
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