Europe’s risk of a winter #EnergyCrisis is fading thanks to brimming inventories, high alternative #gas & #LNG imports, a sharp reduction in industrial consumption, and unseasonably warm weather that has delayed the onset of heating. 🧵
@EurasiaGroup is therefore lowering the odds of severe rationing in Northwest Europe this winter from 25% to 15%. 2/
Even in case of a late winter cold spell (like 2020/21) storage levels suggest it would take until mid-April/23 for inventories to deplete to critical levels, by when the onset of spring will end heating demand. 3/
Should winter remain mild, as seen in 2019/2020, Northwest Europe’s inventories could be as high as 60% of capacity by mid-April 2023. 4/
This is a huge achievment by consumers/utilities/regulators/governments - plus we got lucky with the weather. The improved outlook will also make preparing for winter of 2023/24 easier, when Europe must refill inventories with little or no Russian gas. 5/
To prepare for unforeseen disruptions and avoid mandatory demand interventions, there is still a need for voluntary reductions in gas consumption compared to business as usual. 6/
Here a couple of charts. ENDS/ 
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