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Nov 12 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
The gains the Dems made here is *VERY* important for understanding how the next several days are likely to go as they process the remaining 275,000 or so ballots in Maricopa County

BLUF: Dems are well-positioned to win these statewide races
You can take the #AZSEN and #AZSOS races off the table -- AP has called the Senate race for Kelly, NBC has called the SOS race for Fontes. Both lead by 5%+ and would need to win nearly 2 in every 3 remaining ballots to come back. That won't happen.
In the #AZGov, #AZAG and #AZSPI races, the Republicans still have the ability to come from behind. But today's drop favoring Dems means they have a steeper hill to climb.
Per @Garrett_Archer, there are some GOP-friendly batches that will be counted in the coming days in MariCo.
The data for understanding that comes from @Jamal___James, who continues to do great data work
Earlier, I tweeted an analysis thread from @A_R_Stumpf, a former Dem Party data guy, in which he laid out why he was confident Dems would win
After seeing the new data from Jamal, he's revised his take a bit.

The outcomes may well hinge on just how IND/PND voters split. So far, they've backed the Dems. If that holds, they'll likely win. If it changes, then the GOP has an avenue to surge ahead.

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More from @JimSmall

Jim Small Profile picture
Nov 12
MariCo has posted 74k ballots. The surge of GOP voters predicted by Republican campaigns failed to materialize

#AZSen
Kelly's lead today grew from 114,894 votes to 123,916 (@AP called the race for @CaptMarkKelly

#AZGov
Hobbs' lead went from 26,879 last night to 31,097
#AZSoS
Fontes' lead went from 109,244 to 118,125

#AZAG
Mayes' lead went from 16,414 to 19,151

#AZSPI
Hoffman grew her lead from 3,852 to 6,665
This batch of ballots were the 17,000 that couldn't be scanned on Election Day at polling sites (likely VERY heavily favoring GOPers) and early ballots dropped off at polling places.

Dems made significant gains all around
Read 4 tweets
Jim Small Profile picture
Nov 11
MariCo has posted 78k ballots that favored Dem candidates

#AZSen
Kelly's lead went from about 104,570 votes to 114,894

#AZGov
Hobbs' lead went from 19,385 to 26,879
#AZSoS
Fontes' lead went from 98,329 to 109,244

#AZAG
Mayes' lead went from 9,800 to 16,414

#AZSPI
*Lead change*
Hoffman went from trailing by 2,568 to leading by 3,852
***NOTE***

This batch of ballots included only early ballots that were mailed back, not those dropped off at polling places on Tuesday.

Republicans believe that those ballots will be heavily GOP, similar to Election Day voters, which were heavy GOP
Read 4 tweets
Jim Small Profile picture
Sep 26
On Friday, @arizona_sos said it turned in 141,714 signatures.

@SecretaryHobbs' Office said there were 8,175 petition sheets submitted.

That would be 17.3 signatures on average per sheet.

Since there's only 15 lines per sheet, that's impossible.
That few petition sheets also makes it almost impossible that they gathered the 118,823 valid signatures needed.

That would require more than 14.5 signatures per sheet on average.

I've looked at a few hundred sheets, and many (unsurprisingly) are incomplete.
When your path to victory requires every line of every sheet to have a valid signature, you really don't have a path to victory.

The SOS has 20 days to review petitions for completeness, so we'll get a final answer in due time.

But it looks like @arizona_sos fell WAY short.
Read 10 tweets
Jim Small Profile picture
Jul 9, 2020
THREAD

It's nearly time for the weekly #COVID19 update from Gov. Ducey et al.

I'll do my best to cover the event in this thread, but here's the link if you want to watch along youtube.com/watch?v=z69sbd…
I'm not entirely certain what will be announced today, but there are rumors that the ratcheting back on the March-May shutdown rules will continue, this time with restaurant dining rooms being shut down again.
In advance of the presser, @KelliButlerAZ and @CharleneforAZ have asked Ducey to implement a series of steps to more robustly curb spread of #COVID19
Read 91 tweets
Jim Small Profile picture
Jun 25, 2020
Gov. Ducey will be holding a press conference with ADHS chief Cara Christ in about 5 minutes. Watch along here, I'll be doing my best to live-tweet it
Getting started
Ducey: "COVID 19 is widespread in Arizona... It's growing, and it's growing fast, across all age groups and demographics. Anyone can get this virus and anyone can spread this virus."
Read 96 tweets
Jim Small Profile picture
May 23, 2020
I've got a few things to get off my chest about what the Arizona Mirror is, what it isn't and why the bad-faith critics don't make me lose any sleep. Interested? Then stick around for what is sure to be a far-too-long thread! (Or just read this: azmirror.com/blog/a-few-fri…)
Look, I'm used to getting disingenuous complaints – almost exclusively from conservative politicians, activists, political consultants and corporate lobbyists – that we exist to ensure Democrats are elected and are part of a “dark money” propaganda plot.
And, of course, so many of those complaints come from people who *actually do* work in the "dark money" campaign world. Just as a carnival is great for people-watching, politics is great for observing hypocrisy and cognitive dissonance.
Read 25 tweets

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