So, about the battle for the 203-member PA state House: In order to get elected speaker, you need 102 votes. Not just a majority of those present—102 votes, minimum. And there are some real potential hurdles for Dems
Right now, as @Taniel notes, it's 101 D, 100 G, with two seats up in the air. Dems only need to win one, but they'd *really* like to win two. Sadly, just a month before e-day, Dem Rep. Anthony DeLuca died of cancer, though he won re-election in a landslide theguardian.com/us-news/2022/n…
So Dems want 103 seats b/c at best they'd have 102 votes, since DeLuca's seat will be vacant. But there's more. You see, the vote for PA state House speaker is on Jan. 3. What else takes place that day? Oh right... the vote for speaker of the *U.S.* House
The battle for the House majority is just as tight. If Dems get 218 seats (still possible), Pelosi will need every last vote on Jan. 3. And that includes ... PA state Rep. Summer Lee, who just won #PA12
And both sessions start at noon that day! So Dems might literally need Summer Lee to vote for Joanna McClinton for PA speaker (first Black woman to hold the job), then zip down to DC to vote for Pelosi for speaker *the very same day*. Can we borrow this? thedrive.com/news/37625/ita…
(Dem state Rep. Austin Davis will also have to vacate his seat since he just won the job of lieutenant governor—the first Black person to hold *that* job—but not until Jan. 20, so a little more leeway)
And what happens if no one can get 102 votes in the PA House on Jan. 3? Then some sort of deal will have to be worked out between Ds and Rs. It's not clear whether that deal could be rescinded if Dems later fill 102 seats, so getting to 102 now is critical!
P.S. The three Dem seats in the PA House that will need specials are all adjacent districts in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh area). Could happen as early as March or late as May. Expect GOP to make a play for #HD35
So there is flexibility as to the *time of day* that speaker votes are held. In 2019, the U.S. House held the vote at 3:15 PM; in 2021, at 5:50 PM.
Summer Lee can vote in Harrisburg at 12:01 PM, race down to DC, then vote there! Google says it's a 2:18 drive
As a legal matter, there is no problem with this. Summer Lee can vote for Joanna McClinton as PA speaker, resign, then vote for Nancy Pelosi as US speaker. The only concerns are the practical ones concerning both votes being on the same day
As an aside, federal law does not prohibit simultaneous service in Congress & a state post—Brenda Jones did it in #MI13 in 2018.
Also, a congressional swearing-in can be delayed. Rick Scott finished out his term as gov before joining the Senate in 2019
The PA constitution *does* prohibit simultaneous service, but again, it's not an issue, because Summer Lee won't be a member of Congress when she casts her vote for PA House speaker legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/L…
Or she'll take a helicopter! If this is indeed how things go down, it'll be one of the most epic political stories of all time
Clarification on second tweet in this thread: It's possible 102 votes may not be necessary for speaker since there will be one vacancy, so Ds may only need 101. But will still need Summer Lee if they don't sweep both remaining seats. Looking into this!
Where do we even begin? We know exactly where: abortion. We examine this issue that animated Dems as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. We also discuss candidate quality (still important!), Dem meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and more!
Very exciting news: Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the 2020 presidential election for all of the new, post-redistricting congressional districts that will be used in the November midterms! dkel.ec/3RG5Qou
Data for all 435 districts is available in a single chart, right here. These #s reflect how the 2020 election *would* have gone under the new lines.
We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
There's an *incredible* wealth of information to be gleaned. This chart, for instance, shows the small number of "crossover" districts: Just 14 Dems represent Trump seats while 15 GOPers sit in Biden seats. This is near historic lows
Hero of the night is looking like @votevets. They spent $500,000 to help Pat Ryan in #NY19 and were the only Dem group to really get involved in terms of independent expenditures
No AP call in #NY23 GOP primary yet, but NBC has called it for state party chair Nick Langworthy. Black eye for Elise Stefanik, #3 in the House GOP, who endorsed racist Carl Paladino—a move that led other House GOP leaders to claim she'd "gone rogue"! nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The DCCC did run a joint ad with Ryan (it seemed like a so-called "hybrid" ad, where costs are split), but it's not clear how much the cmte spent on it axios.com/2022/08/10/new…
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost has expanded his lead in safely blue #FL10. 76% of estimated vote in, he's beating state Sen. Randolph Bracy 34-25; ex-Reps. Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown at 16 and 10.
#FL11 is TIGHT. 71% of estimated vote in, Webster leads Loomer 47.8-47.7, margin of 95 VOTES.
Two of #FL11's four counties, Orange and Polk, aren't reporting anything. If Loomer's strength is confided to The Villages, gives Webster breathing room. If not ...
Polls have closed in most of Florida, where a huge amount of votes usually start coming in early; Oklahoma is at 8 PM ET/ 7 local time, New York 9 ET. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
This is the biggest U.S. election night from now till November. Check out our cheat sheet for what to follow! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…