Jim Stinson Profile picture
Nov 12 10 tweets 5 min read
Rick Scott was a great #FLGov from 2011 to 2019. He rebuilt the Florida GOP and then won the #FLSen seat. But he screwed up with his national plan, trying to build a platform for himself for a national position like Majority Leader. (1)
There's no denying that if you could list five to six things that slowed the GOP momentum in 2022, @ScottforFlorida's plan to vote on Social Security and Medicare every five years was a gift to Democrats, much like Paul Ryan's thick-headed budget plans in 2011. (2)
It makes no difference that Joe Biden lied about Scott's plan by saying the GOP would vote on authorizing Social Security "every year." Scott gave Biden a target, and forced GOP and fact-checkers to write about the plan. (3)
Polling showed the GOP was favored with voters over 40. But polling stalled with voters over 65, resulting in a tie. (I haven't seen exits.) In crucial states like Penn, Michigan and Arizona, this hurt, especially when Blake Masters posited privatizing SocSec. (4)
You don't touch the Third Rail of Politics before a crucial election. You just don't, unless you want to lose. Leave the maneuvers to actual legislative sessions. Scott erred in a way he never did as governor of Florida. He was usually cautious. #flsen #Midterms2022 (5)
I assume Scott wanted to be GOP Majority-Minority leader of the Senate. I don't see that happening now, although senators may not blame Scott as much as @LeaderMcConnell for the 2022 results. But Scott was @NRSC leader. So look for a third option like Rubio. (6)
The #FLSen @marcorubio would be a good choice for Senate GOP leader, taking over for @LeaderMcConnell. Rubio is younger (McC is 80 or so), understands the federal budget problems but also the need for helping the poor. He's one of the best telegenic GOP representatives. (7)
Scott seems to have Trump's nod for GOP Senate leader. Scott needs to admit miscues. Some of it is not his fault. It was Trump that pushed Oz, Walker and Masters. But Scott's plan was considered by peers to be a huge liability, and Scott's @NRSC fundraising wasted $$$. (8)
Also, don't count McConnell out. @LeaderMcConnell is an excellent tactician. He sued over McCain-Feingold and won. He has uncanny knowledge of the law, the systems and the Constitution. I have always admired McConnell as a free speech advocate. #Midterms2022 (9)
I am not a rabid @LeaderMcConnell critic, @marcthiessen. But sometimes you have to show voters you are changing. When the GOP overlooked McConnell and chose the younger Bill Frist in 2003, they did well in the 2004 elections. (10)

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More from @jimstinson

Nov 15
THREAD. Ron Klain @WHCOS tells some remarkable lies. On @Lawrence (a gullible guy) Monday night, Klain said "no president ... since John F. Kennedy ... (has held on to) Senate seats and potentially even (went) up one Senate seat." This is untrue; @jonkarl also said this. (1)
The best MIDTERM performance on the Senate side by a party holding the White House since 1960 was:

1) 1962. Kennedy. Dems pick up 4 seats despite midterm.
2) 2002. Bush. Despite recession, GOP picks up 2 seats and control of Senate.

So .. 2022 yet, @MSNBC? No. (2)
2a) Tied for second place is Trump's 2018 midterm. The @NRSC knocked off four Democratic Senate incumbents. The Dems knocked off 2 Republican senators. In the end, the GOP Senate majority *gained* 2 seats in an otherwise terrible midterm. (3)
Read 11 tweets
Nov 15
🧵If @GOPLeader Kevin McCarthy and House @GOP win 218 seats soon, it will be a remarkable comeback for him. In 2015, he was in line for the speakership when John Boehner (R-Ohio) decided to retire immediately. (1)
It was early October 2015, and Boehner said he wanted to leave after taking the gavel in January 2011. The conservatives objected to McCarthy for the next few weeks right up to the closed-door meeting in the Capitol, CNN reported. (2)

cnn.com/2015/10/08/pol…
There were a number of objections, but after McCarthy appeared to diss the Benghazi committee, he could not get to 218 votes on the floor. Conservatives said they might support Dan Webster (R-Fla.), who just had a problem fending off Laura Loomer in the FL GOP primary. (3)
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13
Not sure who GOP consultant @TheThomasGuide is -- besides the man who just started a Ron DeSantis Super PAC -- but talking to big liberal media about how stupid Republicans are is not the DeSantis way.

P.S. FL media less popular than COVID in FL GOP.

cc: @KurtSchlichter
In October, John Thomas dismissed the DeSantis use of state funds to move illegal migrants to Martha's Vineyard as "self-interest." He said "Republicans win on pocketbook issues with (voters), not busing migrants across the country."

politico.com/news/2022/10/0…

(2)
In August, Thomas seemed to abandon his idea for a DeSantis super PAC after the Mar-A-Lago raid by the FBI. It rallied Republicans to Trump. "It's not gonna go well for DeSantis," Thomas said.

Man! With Super PAC friends like that. Who needs enemies? (3)

businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-s…
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12
(THREAD) This one stings. Rex Early, a longtime Indiana GOP activist and donor, has died, according to the Indy Star. Early was Trump's spokesman in the 2016 Trump Indiana campaign. Early was 88. #ingov #insen #indiana (1)

indystar.com/story/news/202…
Early was a former state rep in the 1960s and a Marine vet. He became Reagan's Indiana campaign chair in the 1980s. In 1991, he became party chair and raised money to stave off the state GOP's insolvency. (2)
Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) said if you wanted to run for office in Indiana, you approached Rex: "From dog catcher to U.S. President, lines formed at his door for an endorsement." #insen #ingov (3)
Read 6 tweets
Sep 22
Meghan, I love you and Ben. But this is wrong-a-mundo. Let me explain. #sayfie (1)
DeSantis probably knows the Trump base better than most. And they will resent a candidate who competes with Trump in 2024 -- even in a congenial manner. So I am betting unless Trump drops out, DeSantis will not run in 2024. (2)
By 2028, DeSantis will have a large profile and more experience. He will also likely have a huge war chest and a large number of chits across the nation. The shiny penny you mention is on the scene now. And none of them look like they will be shinier in 2028. (3)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 22
Can you imagine being the Pennsylvania and DC-NY media, and being scooped on John Fetterman (mayor and then Pa. LG) being SUED by his school district for unpaid taxes? It happened in 2015 and now again in 2022. #pasen

freebeacon.com/democrats/fett…
Most of the Fetterman unpaid tax stories are from local Pittsburgh media in 2016. The Free Beacon recently updated the story, noting the liens continued into 2019. (2) #pasen #pagov

freebeacon.com/democrats/fett…
Rule No. 1 about political reportage: You look up all public government records on a candidate. Arrest records. Tax liens and property records. Divorce and family. (Remember when the Tribune sued for the records of Obama's opponent in 2004?) (3)
Read 9 tweets

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