This is a massive win for Democrats. We kept the Senate, in the first midterms after one party took the White House. This cycle should have been devastating against us
Two big keys: Trump got involved, & reaction to Roe vs Wade. But also great politics by DEM
I will do a Thread
So understand. We were SUPPOSED TO LOSE
In nearly every cycle in as far as anyone can remember, the party who took the White House, loses in the next midterms (exception was 2002 because of Osama Bin Laden terrorist attack on Sept 11 & wave of patriotism cancelled this pattern)
If we had lost the Senate, not only would Joe Biden's agenda be dead for the next 2 years, GOP would have run all sorts of nastiness, forcing Biden to veto nearly everything - weakening Biden for 2024
And worse: the Teenage Mutant Mitch McTurtle would have controlled judges
This election result - we keep the Senate - is rare & an INCREDIBLE victory for Democrats. And note, it may hold as 'no change' election result, when all is done, at 50/50 Senate (ties broken by Vice President Kamala Harris, for us) - But we may still GAIN one seat (Sen Warnock)
The headwinds for the Democrats had two powerful boosters. President Joe Biden has not been focused on HIS political popularity, he has focused on governing, and fixing enormous damage done by GOP, & keeping promises: like infrastructure, bipartisanship, Afghanistan, gun control
As the President has not focused on his OWN popularity, like most recent Presidents, at this point - heading into his first midterms - President Biden popularity is FAR below 50%. Same as recently Trump, Obama, Bill Clinton at this point in their Presidency (W Bush was exception)
In addition to President Biden popularity being well below 50%, also the newsmedia ran on a boogie man story - driven by GOP propaganda - Inflation. This is silly, partly because GOP caused what little inflation we have, and partly that inflation is not in any way 'bad'
Furthermore, the newsmedia has been pushing the FAKE story, of gas prices (which is not same as inflation). AND gas prices have been manipulated by Saudi Arabia against US elections (to help GOP). More gas prices controlled by the oil industry for massive profits. So is false..
The REAL economy story is JOB GROWTH, at US record speed under Biden, after catastrophic job loss under Trump. In addition to job growth, there is growth in wages (after decade of salary stagnation). If newsmedia had been honest - they'd tell REAL story of the economy being good
So in addition to historical pattern - that is brutal - there is real story of Biden approval being bad at this point, AND fake story of gas prices, & an utterly fake economic story of inflation
The red wave was supposed to be CRIPLING against us. Yet in Senate there was NO WAVE
It is plausible - I would say likely - that we pick up one seat in Georgia runoff, and fake cop Herschel Walker loses again
If we also win Georgia - instead of red wave - in Senate there was a BLUE WAVE, yes modest one, but still - an avalance going UP HILL, against ALL ODDS
The Senate races were excellently run by Democrats. Great fundraising by President Biden, Chuck Schumer, Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic party, and strong campaigns themselves
There were great surrogates like President Obama, and Oprah Winfrey
But two factors cancelled the (potentially massive) red wave:
Abortion (SCOTUS ruling on Roe vs Wade)
And Trump. Both were measured in exit polls. Both drove votes for us. Both had LARGE effects
Abortion almost cancelled Inflation
Trump more than cancelled Biden
The single biggest factor why we kept he Senate - was Trump
Trump is the most toxic politician in US history. He has personally destroyed the 2018 midterms, 2020 general election and 2022 midterms for GOP
Trump flipped House for DEMs in 2018
Trump flipped the White House for DEMs in 2020
Trump flipped the Senate for DEMs after 2020 election, in the 2021 Special Election of Georgia (flipping BOTH red Senator seats in a red state of Georgia to blue)
With those elections, he was worst US politician in modern history
Yet the GOP let Trump come ruin their 2022 midterms
Now Trump personally got involved in Senator races, and wiped out the GOP chances to retake the Senate.
This makes Trump most toxic politician in US history
AND he is headed to destroy GOP into 2024 Presidential Election TOO
What did Trump do? Not only was his PERSONAL brand devastatingly bad (Trump approval among those who voted this midterms wad 39% !!!! EIGHT POINTS below his losing election of 2020)
Trump picked HORRIBLE candidates for Senator, like dog-killing Dr Oz, & fake cop Herschel Walker
Arizona is a red state. The Senate seat for Senator Mark Kelly should have been an easy flip back to red, for the Republicans
Yet Trump selected maganutter Blake Masters who lost by SIX POINTS
Pennsylvania is a purple state. The Senator seat was held by GOP but because of retirement, the race was 'open'. We had a good chance on even 50/50 state with strong candidate John Fetterman
Who then had a STROKE. Had GOP had a sane, normal candidate, this election would be over
Yet Trump nominated Turkish citizen, carpetbagger from New Jersey, 329 dog killing Maganutter, Mehmet Oz. In a race that should have been a RUN-AWAY win against the guy who just suffered a stroke during the campaign, instead Trump maganutter lost by FOUR POINTS !
It wasn't close
Georgia is a red-trending Purple state, that safely re-elected its Republican Governor Kemp by EIGHT POINTS
Any SANE Republican would have EASILY won this Senate Race. Yet Trump nominated fake cop Herschel Walker who lost by FOUR points
(Compred to Kemp, that is 12 POINT SWING)
And Nevada? Is a purple state that is trending red. We just lost the Governor race by 2 points
If GOP had nominated anyone sane, we'd have lost the Senate seat too
Yet Senator Cortez-Masto was just called to win this race. She'll end up about 1 point (net difference 3 points)
Trump is WIPING OUT the GOP
He is toxic himself. He takes their money from donors and uses it to pay his own attorneys. Money desperately needed in these campaigns
Trump runs voter supression AGAINST HIS OWN SIDE with early vote, mail-in-vote, and election denials
Yes, our team ran GREAT races, we had great candidates. The SCOTUS decision of Roe vs Wade also brought in part of our blue wave
But the biggest factor that gave us the Senate in 2022 - is Trump..
And now, that vote was clear
And so I face humiliation
Voters, you have to hear
To Vladimir, I sold our nation
I've told, my lies so dear
I've conned on Fox, the Maga airwave
And more, much more than this
I tricked you
My way
Ketchup? I may have tossed
A covid mess
My lies will mention
I took, ate documents
Espionage
Was my intention
I played, each Trump golf course
Helicopter rides
Up to the fairway
And yes, I felt the bliss
I fooled you
My way
Yes there were times
That lunch I threw
I claimed 'fake news'
More than would do
But through it all, when there was doubt
I yelled 'witch hunt!' and just walked out
I failed my wall
my hands so small
I conned you
My way
So it is like Doctor's visit and Doctor said what the patient HAD to do. Instead, GOP went on a kegger
For 2016 they nominated a PUSSY-GRABBER and RACIST (old white dude also out of line with youth)
For 2016 Trump DAMAGED the GOP on ALL THREE of those demographics
Romney lost the 2012 popular vote & got 47% of the vote
By 2016 Trump did worse, got 46% of popular vote, but by FLUKE of Electoral College, even though Hillary received 3 million more votes than Trump, Trump became President. This gave ILLUSION this mad startegy works for GOP
Why is failed Bond Villain wannabe, the Chrischristie in the news? Or Cancun Cruz, America's most hated man talking about personality? Or Never Trumper John Kasich demanding move beyond Trump? Because the race for 2024 has started on GOP side. Even Lord of Flies thinks has chance
Trump said he will announce on Tuesday. Now everybody who thinks they have a chance, have to stake their ground
And the newsmedia - driven by right wing media owners - is pushing Death Santis as their new Trump. DeSantis is too smart to run against Trump. He's playing Trump
Ted Cruz is the front-runner AFTER Trump is no longer viable. Cancun Cruz is only playing the game of never angering Trump but preparing his day, for when Trump is in prison. He will then promise to pardon Trump too. Cruz is playing long game. But he won't go against Trump
SUPER TIGHT result. Was supposed to be a blow-out. The PATTERN for first midterms after party takes White House is from 40 to 60 bloodbath in Congress. That is the pattern we should have seen. But there was NO RED WAVE
It is razor-thin, can go either
In Senate the Georgia race goes into a run-off. Senator Warnock won his first runoff. He got more votes against the Fake Cop Herschel Walker. This is FAVORED to go our way. We won't know until Dec, but if we hold Georgia, we hold Senate. So Trump wiped Mitch McConnell out - again
The Nevada vote count is not finished and we have a good shot at Senator Catherine Cortez Masto still winning re-election in the Nevada race. In that case Georgia runoff will not even matter
We cannot call the Senate yet. But we have significantly better chance of holding it
My quick & easy three day war into Ukraine has now run into its 9th month. We lost the battle of Kyiv, their capital & largest city. As you can see, my war started out tremendously well.. for the Ukrainians
After we lost the battle of Kyiv, we proceeded to lose the battle of Kharkiv too. Kharkiv is their second largest city. After a prolonged battle we lost at Snake Island. Then we lost the battle for Izyum, a town we had seized. As you can tell, this war was going remarkably well
We have been eagerly retreating so much since March, that half of the terrain we once held in Ukraine has already been handed back to the Ukrainians. In the words of my pet & sex toy, Donald Trump, I call this unconventional type of military maneouvering: 'winning'