I posted a long thread about this yesterday but here again is my analysis of the possible impact of the #GOPCovidDeathCult on House races: 1/

In short, there’s really only a dozen races where the GOP candidate *might* end up losing by less than the #GOPCovidDeathCult margin, which ranges from 0 - 600 votes in these 20 races (some of which have already been called since yesterday). 2/
I estimate that perhaps ~150K more Trump voters died of COVID than Biden voters between the 2020 & 2022 elections nationally. That’s a lot of people, but it’s tiny vs the ~112M who voted in the midterms, and most of these deaths happened in solid red/blue districts anyway. 3/
At the state level, the only Senate seat which ended up being close to my #GOPCovidDeathCult estimate was Nevada, but it still looks like the winning margin will be outside my ~2,400 vote estimate. 4/
There’s still the remote possibility that #AZGovernor and/or #AZAG might fall into my ~4,100 vote margin as well, and there’s also my ~5,700 estimate for the upcoming #GASenate runoff. 5/ acasignups.net/22/11/11/eleph…
Just for the hell of it, I decided to run the numbers on two of the deepest red districts, where the #GOPCovidDeathCult also ran the strongest. I picked #AL04 and #KY05. 6/
In #AL04, I estimate 1,883 Trump voters likely died between the 2020 & 2022 elections vs. just 59 Biden voters, a difference of 1,824.

In #KY05, I estimate 1,992 Trump voters likely died between the 2020 & 2022 elections vs. just 70 Biden voters, a difference of 1,921. 7/
However, the fact that these are such deeply red districts also means that even a huge partisan COVID death difference is meaningless electorally: Both GOP incumbents won by nearly 138,000 votes, so losing nearly 2,000 of their own voters was a rounding error for them. 8/

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 14
📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:

acasignups.net/22/11/13/eleph… Image
If Katie Hobbs or Kris Mayes end up winning by less than ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.

In NV, Catherine Cortez Masto looks like she's outside of Nevada's ~2,100 vote range.
HOUSE RACES: Assuming all of the races *not* listed below don't see some dramatic turnaround, there's perhaps 8 House races left which could potentially end up falling within the #GOPCovidDeathCult range: AZ06, CA03, CA13, CA22, CA41, CA47, CO03, NY22.
acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph… Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 13
In case folks have forgotten, there's still a chance Democrats flipped the Arizona State Senate... Image
And Dems also have a shot at flipping the Arizona State House as well.

It's unlikely, but conceivable that Dems managed to squeak out a trifecta in Arizona! Image
Re. HD-002B: AZ's state house districts have 2 members apiece, so I think the parties occasionally only run 1 of their party in hopes of focusing on being sure to get at least one seat instead of risking not getting either seat. It seems to be working for Judy Schwiebert so far.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
Out of curiosity, I decided to take a look at how some of the long shot Senate races which there had been some minor buzz about ended up going.

In Missouri, there was hope that a beer fortune heiress billionaire might be competitive. She wasn't. Image
In Indiana, there were a couple of polls showing Tom McDermott might be competitive. He wasn't.

(again, this isn't a reflection on the candidates themselves, just about the state they ran in). Image
In Louisiana, there was some controversy on the Democratic side about whether to back a "safer" moderate candidate (Mixon) or one more to the left on issues (Chambers). It didn't matter--Kennedy ended up getting nearly twice as many votes as both of them *combined*. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 12
📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.

The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
In the case of #GASenate, if Raphael Warnock ends up winning the upcoming runoff election by less than ~5,700 votes, I would also put it in this category.

TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 11
House state of play (h/t @Taniel & @Fritschner; I just gussied up the table a bit, including adding the current vote margins & % reported via the NY Times).

If Dems hold all seats they're currently leading in *and* flip 5 of the 10 currently w/GOP leading, they get to 218. Image
Whoops...the margin cell for MD-06 should be orange instead of blue...but it's my understanding that that one is expected to flip blue soon anyway...
IMPORTANT: Notice that the California races (which make up 10 of the 17 listed) have only reported an average of 55% of their votes so far!

I have no clue where the other ~45% are located but all 10 of them could *easily* change.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 11
Latest Arizona numbers via @NYTimes...all 4 Dems are slowly padding their leads...
Latest Nevada numbers via @NYTimes...no change to AG or SOS, but Gov & Senate inched towards Dems some more. #NXP
I'm gonna remove AG from Nevada since it's actually been called for Ford at this point.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Cortez Masto & Francisco Aguilar have a solid shot at winning but Sisolak can't close the gap, but we'll see...
Read 5 tweets

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