Thread by @charles_gaba

I posted a long thread about this yesterday but here again is my analysis of the possible impact of the #GOPCovidDeathCult on House races: 1/

acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…

In short, there’s really only a dozen races where the GOP candidate *might* end up losing by less than the #GOPCovidDeathCult margin, which ranges from 0 - 600 votes in these 20 races (some of which have already been called since yesterday). 2/

I estimate that perhaps ~150K more Trump voters died of COVID than Biden voters between the 2020 & 2022 elections nationally. That’s a lot of people, but it’s tiny vs the ~112M who voted in the midterms, and most of these deaths happened in solid red/blue districts anyway. 3/

At the state level, the only Senate seat which ended up being close to my #GOPCovidDeathCult estimate was Nevada, but it still looks like the winning margin will be outside my ~2,400 vote estimate. 4/

There’s still the remote possibility that #AZGovernor and/or #AZAG might fall into my ~4,100 vote margin as well, and there’s also my ~5,700 estimate for the upcoming #GASenate runoff. 5/ acasignups.net/22/11/11/eleph…

Just for the hell of it, I decided to run the numbers on two of the deepest red districts, where the #GOPCovidDeathCult also ran the strongest. I picked #AL04 and #KY05. 6/

In #AL04, I estimate 1,883 Trump voters likely died between the 2020 & 2022 elections vs. just 59 Biden voters, a difference of 1,824.

In #KY05, I estimate 1,992 Trump voters likely died between the 2020 & 2022 elections vs. just 70 Biden voters, a difference of 1,921. 7/

However, the fact that these are such deeply red districts also means that even a huge partisan COVID death difference is meaningless electorally: Both GOP incumbents won by nearly 138,000 votes, so losing nearly 2,000 of their own voters was a rounding error for them. 8/