Thread by @charles_gaba

📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:

STATEWIDE:
acasignups.net/22/11/13/eleph…

If Katie Hobbs or Kris Mayes end up winning by less than ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.

In NV, Catherine Cortez Masto looks like she's outside of Nevada's ~2,100 vote range.
acasignups.net/22/11/13/eleph…

HOUSE RACES: Assuming all of the races *not* listed below don't see some dramatic turnaround, there's perhaps 8 House races left which could potentially end up falling within the #GOPCovidDeathCult range: AZ06, CA03, CA13, CA22, CA41, CA47, CO03, NY22.
acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…

As I keep saying, while I estimate perhaps ~150K more Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 & 2022 elections than Biden voters, the vast bulk of them died in districts which are deep red (or deep blue) to begin with & the rest are spread out.
acasignups.net/22/11/12/eleph…

For instance, here's 2 of the deepest red districts in the nation: #AL04 & #KY05.

In each, I estimate around *30x more* Trump voters died of COVID between the 2020 & 2022 elections as Biden voters, or ~1,900 more apiece. Yet that was a rounding error in electoral impact.

And yes, the same holds true in deep blue districts, where more *Biden* voters likely died of COVID than Trump voters during the same time period, although not by nearly as dramatic ratios. Here's my estimates for 2 of the deepest *blue* districts (CA-12 & MD-04):

UPDATE: OK, as @swiley1983 notes, there's a third statewide race which is already currently in the #GOPCovidDeathCult zone: Arizona School Superintendent. We'll see if that holds, however.

There's probably a few dozen state legislative races & other local races which fell into this zone as well (county commissioners, city councils, etc) but most of these get so granular that it'd be impossible to tell even if I had the resources to dig down that deep.

UPDATE: Welp. There was just another small Arizona ballot drop, and the State School Superintendent race just flipped red.

UPDATE: Annnnd Dem Hoffman retakes the lead!

UPDATE: Annnnd all three Dems build up their lead a smidge more...

UPDATE: Annnnd with the Big Maricopa County vote drop, the GOP Superintendent candidate retakes the lead.

Dem Hobbs still up 20.5K, Dem Mayes now up just 4.2K...just barely outside of my #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 range.

📣 UPDATE: Dunno many votes are left to tabulate in Arizona, but it looks like the only statewide race in which the #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 ended up being a decisive factor in the outcome is ARIZONA ATTORNEY GENERAL.

I'll check other states to see if I missed anything else.

🚨 UPDATE: Again, I don't know how many votes are left to count in Arizona, but at this point, unless her lead doubles or more, if Kris Mayes wins Attorney General, it was DEFINITELY the #GOPCovidDeathCult💀 which put her over the top.

OK, *almost* certainly, anyway. My low-end estimate for Arizona's Red/Blue voter COVID death is ~900, my high end is ~4,100, so I can't be 100% certain, and of course I could never prove it, but I'm as confident about this as I can be, anyway.

If Hamadeh ends up winning, of course, this is all moot; it won't end up being the deciding factor in *any* statewide races.

Welp.