Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 14 3 tweets 2 min read
To be very clear - what Galen is referring to here is that Colorado accepts ballots as valid as long as they are postmarked by election day. These are trickling in.

Frisch is going to narrow the vote gap on registration alone - the question is just how much.

#co03 #copolitics
These late votes are definitely breaking in Frisch's favor via registration, but I want to caveat this by saying 1) registration != vote choice and 2) we don't know the exact count of ballots remained to be counted.

Everyone sit tight and let the hype train roll.
It's been brought to my attention that the postmarked-by-ED ballots are only military/UOCAVA. A lot of this is just election night backlog. So I am partially right here - but this is going to favor Dems somewhat - just remains to be seen.

HYPE TRAIN ROLL

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More from @Thorongil16

Nov 10
If the non-in person number is that high - Frisch is absolutely still in this.

It depends on whether the mail is earlier (more D) or later (swing/narrow R).

Either way, buckle up because this seat is likely to be the 218th for either person.
Otero also has some votes up for grabs left - those will break R. But we don't really know how much.

Just want to commend Anna here for her amazing job - this ain't easy!
Either way, this is like covering a football game with how crazy and chaotic this is.

Honestly my duel voting proposal wouldn't be out of place here.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10
Currently, Frisch up by 64 votes.

I pulled the current numbers in each county of CO-03 and calculated the undervote. Using this we projected the *upper bound* of how many remaining cong. votes there are.

If they break at the current margin, Frisch gains a *max* of 393 votes.
Assuming some attrition in Mesa/Pueblo (the two main sources), you get the second case. As an absolute upper bound (Frisch probably will not hit this), he gains 88.

I think there's a solid case that Frisch's net gain conf. interval will keep this in a double-digit vote margin.
In other words - too early to call. Way too early to call. This is not going to be called now.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8
Election day votes are happening but Rs already have a decent turnout advantage in Lake County EV for #IN01.

Hammond is an ouch, particularly because that is where Mrvan is from. Dems will need big turnout Gary/EC/these other bases today to win.
That said, the EV data in LaPorte and Porter actually looks ok - Dem turnout advantages in Valparaiso (Center twp, Porter), Michigan City (LaPorte) mean that Mrvan is still very much in this.
For those of you who are interested - full ballot return stats for the 3 counties in #IN01. A bunch of these townships in LaPorte are in the 2nd CD just as a forewarning.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8
#CO03 has been pointed out as a sleeper based on early vote data from @GalenMetzger1 (CO data hype man).

Looking at the reg data, do I agree?

Definitely maybe. Thread below
Boebert is a shit candidate. The fact that this seat is competitive is 100% due to her being a shit candidate - Rs in a red year in the 3rd usually win by double digits, nearing 20 points. See: Tipton, Scott and McInnis, Scott
Looking at returned ballots, and using a 15% split in Eagle County (the portion of the county in CD3), there's a roughly 13k firewall for registered Rs - in 2020 this number was 32k and it was roughly similar in 2018.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 7
Plugging our final predictions from the @SplitTicket_ crew:

@lxeagle17 @HWLavelleMaps myself

We'll end up seeing who's right only tomorrow, but we've put together some very solid educated guesses on what could happen - so read the articles linked below!
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
Senate: 50-49 R with Georgia runoff deciding control of the Senate, from @lxeagle17
split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our…
Read 4 tweets

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