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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 17

#Russia_Energy: While China is showing increased vigilance over secondary sanctions for importing Russian oil as the day of the embargo (Dec 5) approaches, India is acting in a riskier fashion. Indian companies have taken several steps (with state permission):⤵️

1) Indian Oil Corp and Nayara Energy refineries ordered oil from Russia beyond Dec 5th (when the EU imposes the embargo and the oil price cap is supposed to enter in force). Other Indian processors that used to buy Russian oil are more cautious and suspended⤵️

the imports for Dec. This speaks of the non-existent state regulation that imposes a single approach to the foreign sanctions regime; 2) Indian and Russian financial institutions have established compatibility mechanisms to approve Russian insurance for seaborne oil imports.⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 10

#Russia_Sanctions: Critical means of transportation in Russia are rapidly becoming obsolete. Russian Railways calls for removal of sanctions. The company sent the request to the EU 3 months ago. It criticized the lack of response, ignoring the fact that the sanctions will last⤵️

until the war ends and the EU together with Ukraine decides the fate of the sanctions. The Russian company argues that it is applying discriminatory actions, with humanitarian effects, forgetting that it is still involved in the war against Ukraine, with thousands of⤵️

civilians killed. Millions of Russians, especially the most vulnerable, are among the hardest hit. The sanctions affected 24 regional passenger rail companies in Russia. In addition to export sanctions, European companies (Siemens, Talgo) cannot perform the technical⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 10

#Moldova: The EU will give €200 million to Moldova to deal with the energy crisis. Half is in credits. During 2022, the EU has allocated €840 million in grants and credits. von der Leyen is in Chisinau today and Metsola should arrive tmr. Meanwhile,⤵️

the ruling party (PAS/Sandu) faces another scandal related to leaked information from the hacked account of Justice Minister Litvinenco and other officials, including Sandu herself. Although they claim that the leaked information would be false, it looks likely to be authentic.⤵️

According to the leaks, the Minister of Justice would have been in contact with unknown persons about the arrest of the suspended Prosecutor General Stoyanoglo, who judges Moldova (current government) in the ECtHR. This comes at a time when the government has requested⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 9

#Georgia: The country is literally stalled by the state of democratic institutions and the political ossification. The recent IRI survey shows the following: 1) The direction in which the country is moving is perceived as positive by only 30% (this figure did not change ⤵️

significantly from last year); 2) 50% think Georgia will not receive candidate status in 2023; 3) The public perceives that candidate status is not achieved due to political instability (30%), internal opposition (17%) and EU opposition (15%);⤵️

3) While 25% of Georgians would still vote for the ruling party (Georgian Dream), 42% believe that none of the existing political forces represent the interests of the people;⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 9

#Moldova: Justice Minister Litvinenco announced that he will ask the Constitutional Court to declare the Shor Party "unconstitutional", mainly on the grounds of illegal funding and collusion with Russian special forces. President Sandu did not oppose this idea⤵️

(which means that she most likely supports the initiative). The recent individual sanctions applied by the US against Shor and his party are used as one of the main sources of evidence. If the Constitutional Court decides that Shor does not comply with the constitution,⤵️

Shor risks to be removed from the party list which is now made up of more than 50 political parties. In this way, the ruling party hopes that the weekly anti-government protests on Sundays will cease. Despite that, there are other opposition political parties (more credible⤵️

Read 10 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 9

#Russia_Energy: The Northern Sea Route is being used by Russia to export oil to China. The Vasily Dinkov ship will arrive at the Chinese port on November 17. The first time a ship was sent was in 2019, but from this November, and even more so in the summer of 2023,⤵️

Russia will send even more ships. This route is a shortcut unlike the longer one through the Suez Canal. Land and sea routes are becoming congested due to Russia's trade decoupling from the EU and the reorientation towards China.⤵️

EU ports are closed to Russian ships as a result of the sanctions. Therefore, the use of the Arctic route can become a vital transport artery between Russia and Asia (China).

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