1/ I'm growing increasingly worried about #Ebola in Uganda.
Over the past few days, cases have been reported in previously unaffected districts, rates have started increasing, & the MoH sit reps were plagued w/ errors.
All signs point toward a deteriorating situation.
2/ Over the past week, confirmed Ebola cases have been reported in the Masaka and Jinja districts. This is the first time EVD cases have been reported in these districts. who.int/emergencies/di…
3/ As @sneweyy reports, when new cases show up in previously unaffected regions, that is a sign contact tracing efforts may be failing.
5/ Data from @globaldothealth show that the rate of new cases has started climbing. Coupled with the spread to new districts, signs are pointing toward an outbreak that is getting out-of-control.
6/ Reports from the MoH have become increasingly erratic and error prone over the past 10 days. Stopping the spread of Ebola requires high-quality data. It's clear that the MoH needs support.
2/ *As you may have noticed, our @ppi_insights twitter account is down (we're working on that), so the information I'm sharing is about a week old. I will tweet out updated data tomorrow.
3/ This week (Oct. 10th) there were enough XBB variant genomes to estimate its growth rate.
Unfortunately, XBB looks even more concerning than BQ.1.1.
And it’s only a matter of time before these variants spread to more countries.
1/ It may sound crude, but, did you know that last year's Noble Prize in physics was awarded for using the "ask your friends if they're sick" method to study complex systems? 🤯🤯🤯
And, that asking your friends is provably the optimal strategy for assessing infection risk. A 🧵
How fast will #Omicron drop after peaking? Turns out, it's not so obvious. A thread on the shape of epidemics. 1/25
You might think that if an epidemic curve goes up quickly, then it will come down quickly. We (@LHDnets, @all_are, & me) did too. And, it can! For example, replacing sick workers can drive accelerating disease spread and decline. 2/25 nature.com/articles/nphys…
Our intuition is that this worker replacement effect is a BIG deal for the isolation time debate. The tl;dr of the @NaturePhysics paper above is that the local social network matters A LOT & how exactly we replace workers matters A LOT. More soon on this. 3/25
Last week I told the @BostonGlobe models showed a #COVID19 peak in 1-2 weeks (i.e. later this week or next). The data are consistent with a peak happening now, but, the Globe picked a different forecast for their headline. 🤦♂️ 1/6 bostonglobe.com/2022/01/12/nat…
Wastewater data are peaking in Boston. However, as @davidlazer mentions we’re still *way* above record highs & hospitalizations will continue rising after cases peak. So things will get worse healthcare-wise. Masking & testing are vital now. #wastebeforecase@BiobotAnalytics 2/6
Cases are falling in DC, but because of surging hospitalizations that will continue to rise, the mayor has rightly implemented new emergency measures. 3/6 nbcwashington.com/news/coronavir…