"Prigozhin is taking actions that resonate with a constituency interested in the ideology of Russia’s national superiority, Soviet brutalist strength, and distasteful of the Kremlin’s corruption."
There has been several posts from ISW exploring—at a surface level—emerging divides within the Russian pro-war factions.
#Prigozhin is cited consistently, and it's clear why: a decades- long rise as a shadowy leader, now thrusted to center of attention in the context of war.
2/
To explore more deeply who Prigozhin is, and why he matters, I strongly recommend the @bellingcat three-part investigative series on his ascendance, and how the structures around him have evolved to support that rise.
What's perhaps bizarre is the notion of revitalizing #Russian national myth and narrative through an individual whose rise is predicated on the structures which have so undermined it: corruption, deniability, and obfuscation of a necessary truth.
4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
While Ukraine's inertia has it on the upside, evidence of strain on Western arms stockpiles & production capacity could, eventually, imperial the momentum of AFU operations.
I interpret this as acknowledge of the above fact, and signaling Ukraine to adjust its operational approach in winter.
With current supplies AFU can't reasonably attempt large-scale maneuver ops. long-term (it may prematurely exhaust combat capability before achieving its goals)
"A pro-war #Russian ideologist, Alexander Dugin, openly criticized Putin—whom he referred to as the autocrat—for failing to uphold Russian ideology by surrendering #Kherson City on November 12."
There's a number of overlapping developments within the Russian narrative space, but one thing is increasingly apparent: the loss of Kherson has shattered the narrative of the invasion project. Abridged translation:
There's a few sources here to work with: official, local, and Rus. milbloggers (who either interpret or infer from events). This is an unconfirmed video (Ukrainian origin) accompanying the claim:
"MTR [SOF] on boats trying to cross the #Dnieper."
"Russian military leadership—namely Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin—have been developing informational cover to set conditions for the loss of the right bank."
I'm applying to this daily assessment my existing threads on #Kherson from the prior two weeks. All aspects of the assessment can be expanded on through these threads.
Second, an elemental fact is that there are neo-Nazi factions in the Ukrainian and Russian armies. The quoted thread actually highlights Nazi symbology across several AFU units.
The reasons for this are, understandably, complicated. Just a few points to expand on that.
2/
There are strong-beds of ultranationalism and ethnonationalism across Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and in Russia.
This includes nationalist anti-democratic outfits, anarchists, and also those whose origins or ideological premises derive from, or interpret, Nazism.
3/
Apparently #Russian TG channels are backtracking on earlier counter-claims, and now report that the #AntonovskyBridge and bridges across the Kakhovka dam have been destroyed.
Rus. TG channels are erratic the past 8 hours—it's just unclear what is true.
To make this even more confusing, the counter-counter-claim is that Russian forces *themselves* blew up the bridge on their retreat (note this is not logical since it could serve as a route of escape for soldiers on foot).