| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 15 4 tweets 2 min read
@TheStudyofWar released its daily (11/14) assessment:

"Prigozhin is taking actions that resonate with a constituency interested in the ideology of Russia’s national superiority, Soviet brutalist strength, and distasteful of the Kremlin’s corruption."

1/4

#UkraineRussiawar

🔽
There has been several posts from ISW exploring—at a surface level—emerging divides within the Russian pro-war factions.

#Prigozhin is cited consistently, and it's clear why: a decades- long rise as a shadowy leader, now thrusted to center of attention in the context of war.

2/
To explore more deeply who Prigozhin is, and why he matters, I strongly recommend the @bellingcat three-part investigative series on his ascendance, and how the structures around him have evolved to support that rise.

3/
bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
What's perhaps bizarre is the notion of revitalizing #Russian national myth and narrative through an individual whose rise is predicated on the structures which have so undermined it: corruption, deniability, and obfuscation of a necessary truth.

4/4

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More from @osint_east

Nov 14
Were they though?

While Ukraine's inertia has it on the upside, evidence of strain on Western arms stockpiles & production capacity could, eventually, imperial the momentum of AFU operations.

+1
I interpret this as acknowledge of the above fact, and signaling Ukraine to adjust its operational approach in winter.

With current supplies AFU can't reasonably attempt large-scale maneuver ops. long-term (it may prematurely exhaust combat capability before achieving its goals)
correction:

(t1): 'imperial' should read as 'impede'
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
@TheStudyofWar releases its daily assessment:

"A pro-war #Russian ideologist, Alexander Dugin, openly criticized Putin—whom he referred to as the autocrat—for failing to uphold Russian ideology by surrendering #Kherson City on November 12."

1/4

#UkraineRussiaWar

🔽
There's a number of overlapping developments within the Russian narrative space, but one thing is increasingly apparent: the loss of Kherson has shattered the narrative of the invasion project. Abridged translation:

A. Dugin's full comments in link

tsargrad.tv/articles/aleks…

2/
Open-quarreling among factions in Russian pro-war and political circles is notable & its ire is turning toward the Kremlin.

This probably does not imply a focus on Putin to the extent of replacing him. We should not draw any outliers toward the center of considering.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Nov 12
🤔

I thought working out a context/investigative thread on this developing story may be of use.

Recent posts suggest fighting in/near #Kinburn Peninsula [Кінбурнська] or vicinity of Herois'ke [Геройське].

The whole story is incomplete, but there is come context:

1/X
There's a few sources here to work with: official, local, and Rus. milbloggers (who either interpret or infer from events). This is an unconfirmed video (Ukrainian origin) accompanying the claim:

"MTR [SOF] on boats trying to cross the #Dnieper."

t.me/horevica/7571

2/
There was a corresponding (albeit cryptic) message from OK South pointing at military operations, later confirmed in an official post.

Note: on a Nov. 11 post OK So. mentions only Kinburn "remains to be liberated."

t.me/mykolaivskaODA…
t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

3/ ImageImageImage
Read 40 tweets
Nov 12
@TheStudyofWar releases its daily assessment:

"Russian military leadership—namely Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin—have been developing informational cover to set conditions for the loss of the right bank."

#UkraineRussiaWar

1/7
I'm applying to this daily assessment my existing threads on #Kherson from the prior two weeks. All aspects of the assessment can be expanded on through these threads.

Nov. 6

"The Battle of Kherson"

1/

Nov. 9

"Note on the possible fallout from the recapture of Kherson by Ukrainian forces.

2/

Read 8 tweets
Nov 12
A few comments. Constructive discussion only, please.

First, Nazi symbology in the war has been a constant. This includes both Ukrainian and Russian forces which have displayed it in some capacity.

⬇️ AFU-worn patch, 36th WG Div. SS

1/
Second, an elemental fact is that there are neo-Nazi factions in the Ukrainian and Russian armies. The quoted thread actually highlights Nazi symbology across several AFU units.

The reasons for this are, understandably, complicated. Just a few points to expand on that.

2/
There are strong-beds of ultranationalism and ethnonationalism across Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and in Russia.

This includes nationalist anti-democratic outfits, anarchists, and also those whose origins or ideological premises derive from, or interpret, Nazism.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Nov 11
Apparently #Russian TG channels are backtracking on earlier counter-claims, and now report that the #AntonovskyBridge and bridges across the Kakhovka dam have been destroyed.

Rus. TG channels are erratic the past 8 hours—it's just unclear what is true.

t.me/RVvoenkor/31582
To make this even more confusing, the counter-counter-claim is that Russian forces *themselves* blew up the bridge on their retreat (note this is not logical since it could serve as a route of escape for soldiers on foot).

t.me/swodki/189201
FYI one of the earlier reports of the bridge being destroyed came around 17:15 EST.

It looks like this one moved around the information sphere a few hours before reappearing.

#antonovskybridge #Kherson

t.me/mig41/22118
Read 7 tweets

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