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| osint_east | Profile picture
@osint_east
Nov 15, 2022 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
After observing the information space re: #Kinburn and #Oleshky it can be determined that no substantive proof of AFU operations releasing the settlement/extended area exists.

Timeline covers events from 11/12 - 11/15. Sources included & timestamped.

#UkraineRussianWar
What may be deduced: likelihood of area reconnaissance, but limits to any other claims.

This can be surmised from the 'grey zone' that now extends along the E. bank of the Dnieper.

Ref. map by @wolski_jaros

@DefMon3 @J_JHelin @PaxLusitanica @Danspiun

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More from @osint_east

| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 3, 2023
It's worth noting this occurred 1) on a holiday, and 2) during a holiday celebration, making the strike perhaps more psychologically devastating.

If the same event occurred in, say, November I'm not clear outrage would be as great (though anger over incompetence would be).

1|4
They also did not die in battle...not even during rear area operations. They were just vaporized in a building while partying.

2|
From what I've gathered the mobilized are called to revive (concretely) a failing operation. Embedded is hope (of/for Russians) that they serve some patriotic capacity (abstractly-speaking), but there is likely an implicit "limit" to that...it's just not clear where.

3|
Read 5 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023
On casualty estimates and their impact:

Regardless of the actual figure: 63 as "official" toll from Russian MoD, "600" from A. Shariy who has made unsubstantiated claims/figures before–the event is considerable because of who has died: the recently-mobilized.

#Makiivka

1|4
The Russian MoD, and Kremlin at-large, has struggled to justify casualties among the mobilized, due in part to its reluctance to "officialize" many reasons for mobilization.

This has been a source of frustration among milbloggers, and the Russian public more generally.

2|
That extended PR failing has manifest widespread fear.

Local sources opened a hotline for families to check service rosters since the high-casualty claims have cemented in the discourse, and since no official source can effectively refute them.

s: t.me/sovanews63/285…

3| Translation s: https://t.me/sovanews63/28593 Sourced: Jan.
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023
Reference on the #Makiivka strike:

The building is not especially old, nor is it small. This was a large three-story building primarily of standing poured columns with likely prestressed hollowcore slabs.

i/s: t.me/grey_zone/16439

1|2 "Destroyed Vocational ...
Meaning: a possible reason for such a high death toll (est. 100-150; (500 is exaggerated)) is the result of the GMLRS munitions creating multiple rapid failures in the entire structure, leading to floors pancaking thus crushing most inside.

2|2
+1

Final note: insofar as local sources claim, the building was struck at 00:01 UTC+2, most likely when the maximum number of soldiers were present in the building.

s: t.me/NeoficialniyBe… Translation. s: https://t....
Read 5 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023
I do not yet fully understand what line B. Rozhin is towing; he oscillates between (measured) analysis and open reflections on economic/social factors.

If anything, he often comes across disappointed rather than incensed like the others.

1|3
In a strange way he seems detached at times, bordering on indifferent if only to allow (objective) reporting while others lean overly-performative.

МИГ and Rozhin are similar in this way–far more "matter of fact" language used by the two.

s: t.me/mig41/22995

2| Tranlation: MIR Sourced: J...
One interesting quirk with МИГ channel is that he only allows two emoji responses: 😢or❤️

Before even reading a message or opening discussion, you can immediately pick up on the significance of the message, and even his tone, based on those indicators alone.

3|3
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Dec 15, 2022
Wagner is engaged on multiple fronts, but its battlefield worth is in question—most recently in a seemingly unending & futile attempt at capturing #Bakhmut. But why would a famed outfit struggle so much?

A new look at #WagnerPMC

#UkraineRussianWar
#Mercenaries

🔞

1 of 48 PART ONE: In the Shadows W...
Studies on #Wagner, a unofficial quasi-state military apparatus, illustrate #Kremlin shadow efforts aimed at enabling foreign policy objectives.

Simply, Wagner brings to bear the levers of organized violence where (official) #Russian forces cannot.

2|
This violence is an enabling force, but also a restrictive one. It is, in effect, Wagner's primary capability.

All other internal efforts (media, power-projection, political maneuvering) are oriented towards enabling and maintaining this capability.

russianpmcs.csis.org

3|
Read 49 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
It appears Wagner elements are aiming straight-west using low-density residential as an attack vector, but that likely halts when they reach the Bakhmutova River.

Unclear if toehold is a fixing action as forces N/S attempt encirclement, or a disjointed effort.

#Bakhmut

1/N
This is not an ideal vector (poor cover, flexible) but is a more efficient route to city center & river crossings.

Breaking secondary AFU defensive lines is a clear goal.

As suspected, Wagner is moving off main approaches to avoid interception.

2/
In terms of rhetoric the Wagner/milblogger narrative is kicking into gear by framing these smaller actions as more indicative of general AFU setbacks.

s: t.me/pmc_wagnera_to…
s: t.me/c/1827743879/1…

3/ Translation: Wagner PMC Sourced: Dec 14. 2022. Telegram.Translation: Wagner PMC Sourced: Dec 14. 2022. Telegram.
Read 6 tweets

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