The ABS released some new data on Covid deaths today, looking at breakdowns by various demographics over the different Covid waves. #COVID19Aus
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The ABS have reported on the following waves:
- wave 1 = March-May 2020
- wave 2 = June-Nov 2020, predominantly in Victoria
- Delta wave = July-Dec 2021
- Omicron wave = 2022, with some stats further broken down by month.
Data is based on registered death certificates.
First up, they show a table of deaths *from* covid (ie. covid was the cause of death) versus *with* covid (ie. covid was a contributing factor). But I find my own graph easier to understand 🙃
Proportion with covid increased in the Omicron wave with increased prevalence.
Overall, during the Omicron wave 22% of covid deaths were *with* Covid.
The proportion dying *with* Covid is higher the younger the age band.
Age breakdown of deaths *from* Covid by wave.
Wave 2 was dominated by deaths in aged care homes, hence the much higher proportion of older deaths.
The Delta wave occurred while vax rollout still underway, so more younger vulnerable people were at risk.
[As an aside, the youngest age band here is 0-59 years, so information on children and young adults is still hard to come by.
Part of the reason for this is that the ABS is restricted by legislation in what they can show. If a data cell is too small, ....
.... it is "non-publishable" as individuals can potentially be identified.
This is across all of their data, not just deaths.
But it is frustrating.]
Consistent with overseas experience, more males have died from Covid than females, other than in Wave 2.
As noted earlier, wave 2 was dominated by aged care deaths, and approx 2/3rds of aged care residents are women.
More males have died from Covid than females in all age groups other than the 90+ band, where females out-number males by about 2:1 (so the mortality RATE for females is lower than males in all age bands).
Age standardised mortality rates by state for those who love state comparisons!
Only states with more than 20 deaths in a wave are shown.
In Omicron wave:
- NSW, Vic, NT and ACT similar
- Qld, SA and Tas similar and lower
- WA much lower.
As expected given border closures.
There is more information on Covid deaths:
- among ATSI people
- by country of birth
- by acute outcomes associated with Covid (i.e. covid caused pneumonia is the most common)
- by pre-existing condition (i.e. cardiac conditions, dementia, diabetes)
....
- by socio-economic status
- by underlying cause for *with* covid deaths (cancer and dementia most common).
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Cases are up 60% this week, back above 20,000 for the week.
While not shown here, RAT cases more than doubled (up from 3,600 to 8,000) while PCR cases increased from 10,500 to 14,600.
PCR test positivity is still going up, at 16% this week.
The age-adjusted mortality rate increased by 17% in 2020 and a further 3% in 2021.
The age-adjusted mortality rate for 2021 is similar to levels last seen 20 years ago.
The increase in mortality in males was higher than in females in both years (M 18%, F 15% in 2020; M 4%, F 2% in 2021)
After the comments by CMO Paul Kelly yesterday where he predicted Australia’s coming wave would be short and sharp based on Singapore’s experience, I thought I’d have a quick look at the two countries.
Here are cases diagnosed.
Shows both countries had similar sized BA.5 waves in July.
And then Singapore had XBB in Oct. Peaked a little below BA.5 wave, and wasn’t as long.
Note that the peak of Australia’s BA.5 wave is now about 4 months ago, whereas in Singapore, their BA.5 wave was 3 months prior to XBB.
So we’ve had an additional month of waning immunity. Not sure how material this might be.
The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 5 November was released today.
I feel like I follow NSW reasonably closely, but there were a few surprises in here for me. #Covid19Aus#Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here... health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
Surprise #1: Cases were up 45% this week, with 14,000 cases reported.
While this is still much lower than earlier in the year, it is a lot more cases than the weekly update suggested (the last weekly update was to 3 Nov, had 12,500 cases reported, up 24% on the previous week).
Surprise #2: The number of PCR tests conducted was up a bit (10%), but positivity increased A LOT to 14%. Not good.
The ABS yesterday released some new stats on life expectancy.
Before I comment on the numbers, I thought I'd explain what this measure of life expectancy is.
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There are two ways to measure life expectancy: 1. period life expectancy, which is what the ABS data is 2. cohort life expectancy, that I'll circle back to at the end of this thread.
Period life expectancy is the life expectancy of a person if they had the same mortality every year of their life as the "period" upon which the estimate is based.
e.g., the ABS table in their tweet shows the 2020 life expectancy at birth for Australia of 84.3 years.