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Nov 17 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
‼️Misinformation

There is no concrete proof of a successful attack IVO #Dzhankoi

There are no damage reports, or visual evidence supporting claims of damage, available.

There is no evidence of weapons systems used, if used at all.

1/3
The video used was filmed in Timonovo, Belgorod, Russia on August 17/18.

Source of video and reference to location/time:

2/
rferl.org/a/russia-belgo…
Rus. source dispute claims of an attack, and of number/type of equipment destroyed.

They cite A. Shariy (Ukrainian) as source of claim. He has spread claims (later proven false) in past two weeks.

t.me/RVvoenkor/32015
t.me/RVvoenkor/32017

3/3
+1

The falsely-proofed video continues to spread.

Any instance of its use with the claim that is it representing events in Dzhankoi is misinformation.

(((Tendar))) has updated their timeline and removed the incorrect video.

Thanks, (((Tendar)))

• • •

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More from @osint_east

| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 17
@TheStudyofWar released its daily assessments:

11/15 & 11/16

Note: this is a combined two-day thread to account for the events regarding the errant missile strike in Przewodow, Poland.

1/6
🔽
11/15

"The Kremlin likely deliberately planned a massive missile strike campaign on Ukraine in anticipation of Zelensky’s speech at the G20 summit given that a multi-direction missile campaign requires significant military preparation."

2/
The coordinated & planned missile strike is similar to previous patterns of wide-scale attacks either in retribution (Kerch Strait Bridge), or for destruction of infrastructure—both civilian and military.

The specific quantity of remaining Russian PGMs is unknown.

3/
Read 6 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 17
@katiasemchuk delivers an impressive and complex story on the challenges of administering justice for forcibly-mobilized Ukrainians.

In war conditions the ability to maintain equal and just treatment under the law is extremely difficult.

1/4
⬇️
“We tried to communicate to [GP] Kostin about the problem that Ukr. citizens are facing horrible sentences under questionable investigation. But I have a feeling that the Prosecutor’s Office is avoiding this subject because it is a difficult matter."

2/
opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-…
One case she highlights is especially telling:

"According to the defense, Medvyed sided with the Russian Federation under duress, fearing for his life and health.

The prosecutor objected, saying there is no evidence that the defendant went to serve against his own will."

3/
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 15
@TheStudyofWar released its daily (11/14) assessment:

"Prigozhin is taking actions that resonate with a constituency interested in the ideology of Russia’s national superiority, Soviet brutalist strength, and distasteful of the Kremlin’s corruption."

1/4
#UkraineRussiawar

🔽
There has been several posts from ISW exploring—at a surface level—emerging divides within the Russian pro-war factions.

#Prigozhin is cited consistently, and it's clear why: a decades- long rise as a shadowy leader, now thrusted to center of attention in the context of war.

2/
To explore more deeply who Prigozhin is, and why he matters, I strongly recommend the @bellingcat three-part investigative series on his ascendance, and how the structures around him have evolved to support that rise.

3/
 bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 14
Were they though?

While Ukraine's inertia has it on the upside, evidence of strain on Western arms stockpiles & production capacity could, eventually, imperial the momentum of AFU operations.

+1
I interpret this as acknowledge of the above fact, and signaling Ukraine to adjust its operational approach in winter.

With current supplies AFU can't reasonably attempt large-scale maneuver ops. long-term (it may prematurely exhaust combat capability before achieving its goals)
correction:

(t1): 'imperial' should read as 'impede'
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 13
@TheStudyofWar releases its daily assessment:

"A pro-war #Russian ideologist, Alexander Dugin, openly criticized Putin—whom he referred to as the autocrat—for failing to uphold Russian ideology by surrendering #Kherson City on November 12."

1/4
#UkraineRussiaWar

🔽
There's a number of overlapping developments within the Russian narrative space, but one thing is increasingly apparent: the loss of Kherson has shattered the narrative of the invasion project. Abridged translation:

A. Dugin's full comments in link

tsargrad.tv/articles/aleks…

2/
Open-quarreling among factions in Russian pro-war and political circles is notable & its ire is turning toward the Kremlin.

This probably does not imply a focus on Putin to the extent of replacing him. We should not draw any outliers toward the center of considering.

3/
Read 8 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 12
🤔

I thought working out a context/investigative thread on this developing story may be of use.

Recent posts suggest fighting in/near #Kinburn Peninsula [Кінбурнська] or vicinity of Herois'ke [Геройське].

The whole story is incomplete, but there is come context:

1/X
There's a few sources here to work with: official, local, and Rus. milbloggers (who either interpret or infer from events). This is an unconfirmed video (Ukrainian origin) accompanying the claim:

"MTR [SOF] on boats trying to cross the #Dnieper."

t.me/horevica/7571

2/
There was a corresponding (albeit cryptic) message from OK South pointing at military operations, later confirmed in an official post.

Note: on a Nov. 11 post OK So. mentions only Kinburn "remains to be liberated."

t.me/mykolaivskaODA…
t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

3/ ImageImageImage
Read 40 tweets

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