Here's some mind numbing notes on Wyckoff and where I see we are at in this Trend Cycle.
Part of my studies have been to always apply Wyckoff to a medium timeframe analysis as I find it's helpful determining TC.
First was our markdown phase, I believe this period to be over.
That also means the bear market is over. Doesn't mean we can't visit $10k. The 77% move from the top to 16k I would consider to be the end of a bear market and the most money to be made is done
Next we move to accumulation. This period can last a long time. So no FOMO.
Spring has the potential to go a little deeper before recovery. Either way, often bears get trapped here believing market has more downside when institutional investment and smart money pops the price into the next markup phase.
The next markup phase I don't expect to be strong, especially with the fractured trust that Crypto needs to rebuild. However, reaching the previous re-distribution period during the last markdown could make for a good target over the next 6 months. #Bitcoin#BTC#BitcoinCash
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One of the primary ways I trade are using harmonics in unison with my EW theory.
One simple rule with harmonics. DON'T TRADE THE PATTERN.
Trading is about putting odds in your favor as often as possible in order to be profitable over time.
The only part of a harmonic that is tradable with a high degree of confluence is after the pattern is completed (D) and use fib levels to determine which areas to take profits.
Below is an example of a Butterfly pattern that I traded successfully.
There are only 4 primary patterns I recommend following as pointed out above. Here is a cheat sheet using fib levels to determine which pattern is beginning to develop. In this example I'm using a bullish structure, but the reverse works the exact same way in a bearish structure.
IMPORTANT: I want to take this time for anyone that reviews my TA and takes a trade based on the information presented - I ask of you one thing. Risk management is key to successful trading and there are 3 simple rules to follow which I will elaborate further:
1) 2% risk: This means when you're wrong, you only lose 2% of your portfolio size. I set my trades at minimum 5RR which means when I'm right I make 10%, wrong I lose 2%. Simple.
2) Take profits when you need them: If you're down on your portfolio, don't wait for full RR. Take profits until your portfolio is built back up enough to take longer risk trades.