After withdrawing from Kherson, Russia concentrates attacks in the Donbass and destroys Ukrainian infrastructure with airstrikes. Ukraine is consolidating on the southern Dnipro and continuing to attack in the Luhansk region. What is the situation and what is needed?🧵 
After more than 20,000 Russian troops were placed in a precarious supply situation by the Ukrainian "slice and starve" attack that began in August, the Russians managed a withdrawal operation from the southwestern bank of the Dnipro River. 2/
In the retreat, troops and weapon systems were systematically withdrawn to the other bank of the river simultaneously with evacuated civilians over a period of weeks. The Russians also delayed Ukraine's advance with deceptive maneuvers and systematic mining. 3/
Less valuable Russian units, especially freshly mobilized forces, were apparently deliberately left without information at first to secure the retreat. They came under massive fire while crossing the Dnipro River and suffered heavy losses. 4/
Since this withdrawal, there have been multiple indications of Ukrainian forces on the western bank of the river. The Ukrainian General Staff also showed videos of inflatable boats in the delta of the Dnipro. It is likely that these are operations by special forces. 5/
Russia is now withdrawing defensive forces further from the eastern bank of the river to get out of range of Ukrainian artillery and brought in released units in the Donbass. 6/
After months of attacks on Bakhmut with heavy casualties yielding little results and attacks in Pavlivka failing disastrously, Russia is now focusing on Avdiivka west of Donetsk. The situation there is becoming more difficult for Ukraine. 7/
Ukrainian forces continue to attack in the Luhansk region near Svatove and Kreminna, but they face strong Russian artillery and are limited in mobility due to ground conditions. 8/
In the Luhansk region and Donbass, the quantitative superiority of Russian artillery with huge ammunition supplies continues to cause problems for Ukraine. Forces from Kherson Oblast can improve the balance on the Ukrainian side, but Russian Lancet drones also cause losses. 9/
More 155mm artillery and large quantities of artillery ammunition are needed to balance the artillery force. More main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, and tracked vehicles continue to be militarily required. 10/
Drones of all kinds, including civilian drones, are useful and essential for survival - for reconnaissance, for target correction, for monitoring infrastructure, for mapping minefields. The more drones for Ukraine, the better. 11/
Ukrainian air defenses will improve with the modern systems delivered, and the inventory of Russian missiles will diminish. Russia's window to destroy critical infrastructure is closing, though damage that is difficult to repair is now done. 12/
More air defense systems of various ranges and air defense missiles continue to be needed rapidly. 13/
Ukraine needs a massive immediate infrastructure program with transformers, spare parts, lines, and infrastructure elements. The EU, many European countries, and many private companies have been providing very rapid and straightforward assistance since October. 14/
A joint major effort is needed once again with a view to the winter months, for which coordination on the Ukrainian side must also improve. 15/
Ukraine needs a big aid package for resilience. The Ukrainians are masters of self-organization, but they need materials: generators, gensets of all sizes, mobile heaters, chargers with cranks, reflectors for children's clothing, and more. 16/
We cannot wait and watch. How the war progresses also depends on our decisions. With the right support, Ukraine can succeed in keeping infrastructures viable in the hinterland and continue to push the Russian aggressors out of the country at the front. /END
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