Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 19 5 tweets 4 min read
The sun has set here in #SharmElSheikh but there's still no #COP27 deal, 24 hours after talks were supposed to end.

However we may be close, as there appears to be a breakthrough on #LossAndDamage. All eyes on 🇺🇸 to see if they'll accept it.
I'm hearing there's been a shift from the Americans in the last hours here at #COP27.

They are ready to agree to creating a fund to help poor countries deal with the consequences of climate change - but only if it doesn't tie compensation to a determination of liability.
This #LossAndDamage u-turn is a big step by 🇺🇸and would not have been possible without the 🇪🇺's surprise reversal to its opposition on Thursday.

It may be that the Americans feel backed into a corner by the Europeans here - Biden doesn't want to be the villain who killed #COP27
But both 🇺🇸&🇪🇺 want #COP27 to agree to increased emissions reduction ambition in return for giving the nod to #LossAndDamage fund.

Both are right now pushing for final text to include language referring to a phasedown of *all* fossil fuels.

🇨🇳 & developing countries resisting.
And we have a #COP27 deal.

They agreed to set up a #LossAndDamage fund at #COP28 next year. It’s a historic shift - the first time this concept has been approved by developed countries.

But there’s little detail, with decisions on who pays and who receives delayed to next year

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More from @DaveKeating

Nov 20
#COP27: we have a deal

For 1st time, rich countries have agreed to pay poor countries for damages caused by climate change - a contentious deal 30 years in the making.

But, they could not agree on details of the fund. Decisions on who pays and who receives put off to next year. Image
Live now: 🇪🇺VP @TimmermansEU tells #COP27 plenary: "The world will not thank us when they hear only excuses tomorrow"

"Friends are only friends if they only tell you thinks you might want to hear" says the Dutchman.

"What we have in front of us is not enough of a step forward" Image
The #COP27 deal has not obliged "major emitters [like 🇨🇳] to increase and accelerate their emissions cuts" says Timmermans.

"It does not bring a higher degree of confidence that we will achieve the agreements made under #ParisAgreement and in Glasgow last year"
Read 8 tweets
Nov 19
“I think our offer has led to an opening” 🇪🇺VP @TimmermansEU tells journalists as tough #COP27 negotiations go into overtime.

“But that offer was very clear. The #LossAndDamage fund should be targeted to the most vulnerable.”
“A positive result today is still in reach but we’re worried about some of the things we’ve seen and heard in the last 12 hours that might indicate a step back in ambition,” warns @TimmermansEU.

But “no deal is better than a bad deal” here at #COP27.
Flanked by EU energy and foreign ministers including @ABaerbock, @TimmermansEU tells journalists people are moving on both sides of the #LossAndDamage debate.

“But frankly I think we have done more moving than the other side.”
Read 5 tweets
Nov 18
#COP27 update: We’re now at the scheduled closing time and it’s clear we won’t end on time.

There’s talk of another plenary starting at midnight tonight to go overnight, but others say it’s better to start again early AM tomorrow and go through the day. worldpoliticsreview.com/cop27-2022-cli…
🇺🇸 has emerged as the climate villain here at #COP27.

Talks are expected to go through the weekend as 🇺🇸blocks 🇪🇺compromise idea on #LossAndDamage.

US delegation was apparently “blindsided” by the EU’s u-turn to support the reparations fund last night, I’m told.
Possible landing zone on #LossAndDamage: Co-proposal from Germany & Chile using 🇪🇺compromise offer.

But has to overcome opposition from:

🇺🇸: Doesn’t want liability
🇨🇳: Doesn’t want to pay

It’s looking like only a 🇺🇸🇨🇳 deal can break this deadlock.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 18
New: “The EU would like to make the following offer” @TimmermansEU announced to #COP27.

🇪🇺 would support establishing a #LossAndDamage response fund at this COP if it has “a broad donor base” and if multilateral development banks are reformed.

Can this break the deadlock? Image
This is a significant #LossAndDamage compromise offer from 🇪🇺, but it asks for significant compromise from developing countries in return.

Countries would have to promise to peak global emissions before 2025 and phase down *all* fossil fuels (not just coal), monitored by 🇺🇳.
“We hope that by this offer we are making tonight we can bring parties closer together because we believe it is urgent that we show to all our constituents we want this COP to succeed” Timmermans said

But 🇺🇸unlikely to go along with this. Is 🇪🇺hiding behind American obstruction?
Read 4 tweets
Oct 11
Extraordinary speech by 🇪🇺Foreign Affairs High Rep @JosepBorrellF saying out loud what member states have opposed him &predecessors saying since position was created in 2009

Capitals jealously guarding their power &information has hobbled 🇪🇺on world stage europa.eu/!d8dMvC Image
Immediately after they agreed to create an EU foreign affairs minister and ministry, to give Europe more voice & sovereignty, national capitals worked to undermine the position.

First they insisted it be given an unwieldy title (High Representative for Foreign Affairs). Then...
National governments purposefully 1st appointed a weak unknown novice, Catherine Ashton, whose tenure was an embarrassment

Since then they have done everything to keep High Rep in the dark &not give them robust mandates. Then they complain Europe isn't treated as a global player
Read 5 tweets
Oct 9
🇫🇮🇪🇪: a Balto-Finnic people separated by 🇸🇪🇷🇺, split by an iron curtain, now united by the 🇪🇺.
It is clear who is on the right side of history.

Brutal empires, be it 🇷🇺,🇬🇧or🇫🇷, rode roughshod over peoples aspirations. Nation-states birthed in 19th century were formed through myth & forced expulsions

🇪🇺 respects national feelings while making arbitrary borders irrelevant
For 🇷🇺to accuse 🇪🇺of colonialism is laughable.

The #RussianEmpire, unlike others, never had to decolonialise because it was a contiguous land empire that could later hide behind a supposed common ideology. But 🇷🇺has never stopped being a colonial empire. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_i…
Read 4 tweets

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