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Nov 19 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
120 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,

480 (+5) ships outbound carrying 11,489,106MT,

394 (+4) ships delivered carrying 8,405,358MT.
19Nov

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative
Another day, another load of 62,843MT of sunflower meal headed to China.
Five ships transited out of the humanitarian corridor on 19Nov and no ships transited in.
South Korea with two whopping orders, 65,000MT of wheat and 62,000MT of corn! #myprecious
One inbound ship was inspected on 19Nov, two outbound ships were inspected, & no others were completed due to weather and logistics. The JCC reports 70 vessels are waiting to move into Ukrainian ports and 26 loaded vessels are waiting for inspection in Turkish territorial waters.
The Run Down

Logistics? This lovely wee ship has transit through the Bosphorus halted and is the perfect example of why Turkey is soon to require proof of insurance from Russian ships transiting.
Incase you missed it, @Istihbarat1800L put out this thread today about Russia working with Iran to open new shipping options for the two countries.
If you’re wondering how Russia’s economy is trending I highly suggest following @HelloMrBond who has been covering Russia’s OFZ bond issuance.
How do sanctions work?

This story about the construction of an urea and ammonia plant going awry is a great illustration.
bnnbloomberg.ca/sanctioned-bil…
Despite it all, Ukraine feeds the world. #GrainFromUkraine

After a meeting with Ambassador Brink yesterday it is announced that the US will sponsor a portion of the costs for Ukrainian grain being sent to @WFP supported countries.
This interview in particular from DW with Ukraine's Minister of Agro-Industrial Policy Mykola Solskyi was especially detailed and talks about how the #GrainFromUkraine program will work. Japan and Germany are footing part of the bill.
dw.com/uk/ukraina-hoc…
Update on the Ukrainian harvest, with snow falling in many areas it’s unclear how much more of the harvest will be competed.
apk-inform.com/en/news/1530474

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More from @exit266

exit266 Profile picture
Nov 20
119 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,

483 (+3) ships outbound carrying 11,586,708MT,

398 (+4) ships delivered carrying 8,517,233MT.
20Nov

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative Image
Another day, another load of 66,000MT of corn headed to China.

And a new chart! ImageImageImageImage
Three ships transited out of the humanitarian corridor on 20Nov and four ships transited in. ImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Nov 19
121 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,
475 (+4) ships outbound carrying 11,244,963MT,
390 (+5) ships delivered carrying 8,242,668MT. 18Nov

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative
Four ships transited out of the humanitarian corridor on 18Nov and only one transited in.
Ships at Sea is holding relatively steady but only because so many have delivered. There is a growing number of outbound ships waiting for inspection again and as of late only three inspection teams have been operating on most days.
Read 8 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Nov 12
Russia says unblocking their exports of grain and fertilizers is key to renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative while simultaneously implementing an export duty. I did a little homework for us both to understand why their words don’t match their actions.🧵⬇️
In 2021 Russia was the world's leading exporter of fertilizer at 15%.
(Source: worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizer…) Image
That fertilizer went to a lot of different countries but mainly Asia and Africa. (Yes I used a source that includes Belarusian fertilizer for obvious reasons.)
(Source: statista.com/statistics/128…) Image
Read 10 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Nov 8
11 days left in the grain deal, 432 ships outbound carrying 10,110,425MT, 329 (+9) delivered carrying 6,798,625MT. 08Nov

Finally! A ship! I see a ship!!

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative Image
Another day, another ship full of sunflower oil headed to China. ImageImageImage
Nine ships delivered at various ports today. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Nov 8
This is a inaccurate take and I’m going to tell you why. This has far more to do with the suspension than an extension but both will have consequences in the coming days.🧵⬇️
#oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative
1. That little dip in ships leaving Odesa area ports which lasted for three days was entirely because when RU suspended it’s involvement in the BSGI it meant no inbound ships could be inspected. Once all the previously inspected ships had sailed they needed to wait Russia.
2. There are currently 9 ships inbound to Odesa, 6 ships at anchor waiting to enter port, and 16 ships moored and being loaded, that’s the highest volume we have seen during the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Read 6 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
Nov 7
12 days left in the grain deal, 431 ships outbound carrying 10,067,175MT, 320 (+9) delivered carrying 6,642,285MT. 07Nov
No ships leave Odesa for the third day.

🧵⬇️ #oatt #wheat #corn #barley #sunflowers #agriculture #maritime #maritimenews #graindeal #blackseagraininitiative Image
Spain continues to lead the way in exports from Ukraine. ImageImageImage
Only 25% of the ships who have left Odesa are still at sea, representing 33% of the MT of grains. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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