Personally, I don't believe #Kadyrov or #Prigozhin will topple #Putin.
I regard them as warlords. They stand for the disintegration of Russian statehood. The Kremlin has long lost the monopoly on the use of violence. In any state, this is a dangerous development.
1/
The loss of the monopoly of violence, an environment with different violent actors may pave the way to civil strife.
Warlords and mercenaries bring us back to pre-modern statehood.
They loomed large during the Thirty-Year-War, the smuta or the civil war in #Russia. 2/
Any warlord must in the end be defeated by superior force. And the loyalty of warlords is questionable.
They play their own game.
/end
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Putin's speech begins with the same arguments as his essay last summer.
I think he really believes in his historical mission. #Putin#UkraineRussiaCrisis
Understanding Putin's historical thinking means understanding his position in this conflict.
Putin thinks #Ukraine is an artificial product of the Soviet era.
He really thinks like Alexander III.