Nick Radical Profile picture
Nov 25 5 tweets 6 min read
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi A highly successful developer from my area; once when asked if he would sell any of his real estate, his response was: "Sell our real estate? We don't sell real estate. We buy real estate."
legacy.com/us/obituaries/…
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi He provides a template for real-assets investing: from shoe manufacturing to cleaning clothes, into wealth denomination in land and horses! There was an era—namely the 1940s to 1970s—when that sort of thing is what defined wealth. It is forgotten...
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi Or the classic:

“They used to ask him: ‘Mr. Isaac, how do you measure in times of high inflation how you are doing this year?’ and he said: ‘If I have one more apartment, one more hectare of farm, one more cow.’ He measured real assets.”

— Eduardo Elsztain (on his grandfather)
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi Another top developer who was from my area, and had a #neversell philosophy with real estate:

jamccormack.com/tribute/detail…
@alsynergy2020 @ShaiDardashti @silverbull0 @benbakhshi Probably the biggest lesson from him is a focus on leasing. Three most important words in real estate: "lease, lease, lease"?

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More from @NICKRADICAL4

Nov 24
@benbakhshi Some of the lowest prices per square foot are available today in stocks on a look-through basis. I believe that our cost basis for $DAFL (DuArt) is around $8 per square foot in Midtown Manhattan. Today the building is being marketed by JLL at $50 per square foot.
@benbakhshi As you know, we pursue this exact core competency as well; below is excerpted from Steve Roth's 2004 $VNO annual report:
@benbakhshi Below is our winning team today, where we ride with Roth, and actually have done better than him with yield in both $SRG and $CPPTL, the former Sears and Penney:
Read 8 tweets
Nov 22
@bbollied What would the startup holdings—Agrofy and fyo—be valued at if they were in the United States?
@bbollied Here is an analysis from 2021, which itemizes assets, seeks to isolate high values, and still holds today:

grahamianvalue.substack.com/p/grahamian-va…
@bbollied $CRESY $CRESW is the "Western Insurance Securities" of real assets:

hurricanecapital.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/the-se…
Read 6 tweets
Oct 22
Rationale behind my $RIG rush this week, or what I'm saying and what I'm not:

I'm saying that the price is below intrinsic value. I am *not* making a directional bet on dayrates, nor performing an industry analysis.

It is price-to-value analysis, or classical value investing.
To see why, begin with book values. $RIG, with the dirtiest book—with years of writedowns and losses—still has a value of over $15 per share.
By comparison, $VAL, the cleanest after restructuring, has a book value of $15 per share as well. But the market price is nearly $60 per share. While surely it will do well in a cyclical recovery, it is not deeply undervalued today. I'm looking at today.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 21
@benbakhshi @OtterMarket Have you seen this rationale for real estate:

grahamianvalue.substack.com/p/grahamian-va…
@benbakhshi @OtterMarket “And each involved real estate as a margin of safety. That’s my signature concept: substituting real estate as an equivalent to inventory in the Graham net-net calculation. I don’t see any reason why those things aren’t equivalent.”
@benbakhshi @OtterMarket “Is retail inventory — if you have a declining retailer, which would fit under Graham’s definition — is that inventory somehow more valid than prime real estate? If you own a bunch of retail inventory, it doesn’t have a huge value. You’re liquidating it at pennies on the dollar.”
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21
Imagine focusing on #crypto instead of $RIG! 🤣
Here is what technology is:

deepwater.com/our-fleet

Atoms vs. bits...

#Crypto is "FarmVille" without the fake vegetables.
An incredible email from Peter Thiel nearly a decade ago:

"I suspect that the “hedonic” adjustment to the inflation numbers has been too large – but this is a difficult thing to say because the hedonics are so hard to measure."
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21
@j2004run @contrarian8888 $RIG is all about platform value, borrowing a mindset from tech VC. In looking ahead five or ten years, as contracts renew at higher and higher rates, what will that look like? As the market begins discounting it, this won't remain a $2.4 billion market cap...
@j2004run @contrarian8888 It will be $20 billion baseline. Peak $RIG earnings last cycle were $4 billion. Arguably that could even support a $60 billion market cap...
@j2004run @contrarian8888 While all of the offshore names should do well, no other has such a low price with an equivalent potential upside.
Read 5 tweets

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