Thread by @JasonMBrodsky

Today Khamenei for the first time in a while spoke about #Iran JCPOA to Basij, saying “Negotiation will not solve our problems w. America. Only one thing would solve our problem with America & that is paying ransom...but not just one ransom, they would always ask for ransom." 1/5

Khamenei has uttered this line before--including in lead-up to the inking of the JCPOA in 2015. But the context here is different--it shows Khamenei unlikely to conclude a deal, especially in light of the situation regarding the #IranRevoIution2022. 2/5
iranintl.com/en/202211260138

This underscores one of Khamenei's core beliefs: that compromise begets expectations for more compromise. He repudiates those in Iran like reformist voices who argue that the system must solve its problems with America to make the protests go away. 3/5
reuters.com/world/middle-e…

First that's a misunderstanding of the moment & people's demands. Second it shows Khamenei wants to showcase strength amid protests--& that means not reviving JCPOA. The collapse of 2009 fuel swap deal for Tehran Research Reactor amid Green Movement protests is the precedent. 4/5

I wrote about this dynamic recently for @TheNatlInterest below. 5/5

nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-ea…