🧵There are reports #Iran's regime may be eyeing hitting an #Israel diplomatic compound in a third country via drones & missiles. Israel maintains embassies in Bahrain; UAE; Jordan; Egypt; Azerbaijan; & Turkey. I would keep an eye on Jordan. 1/3

cbsnews.com/news/iran-to-r… Tehran has been trying to destabilize the Kingdom and smuggle advanced weapons into the West Bank, and there is a significant pro-Palestinian constituency there. Bahrain is one to eye as well given the lack of full diplomatic relations with Iran, although @US5thFleet's presence there will be a consideration for Iranian decision-makers. UAE is more complicated due to its recent normalization with Tehran, not to mention Al-Dhafra's presence in UAE. Azerbaijan and Turkey present complications as well, for example Baku is reopening its embassy in Iran. Egypt is also less likely given Tehran's recent diplomatic outreach. 2/3

#BREAKING: Ali Akbar Ahmadian has replaced Ali Shamkhani as the secretary of #Iran's SNSC. Ahmadian is a former commander of IRGC's Navy, chief of IRGC's Joint Staff, & head of IRGC's Strategic Center. 1/4 apnews.com/article/iran-s… Shamkhani was the last vestige of Rouhani administration in SNSC. Raisi has been seeking to replace him for some time, but it is only now Khamenei consented. I don't expect there to be much change from Shamkhani to Ahmadian, but Ahmadian lacks Shamkhani's unique skill set. 2/4

Today #Iran's supreme leader spoke to MFA officials and ambassadors. He notably spoke about the need for expediency, but he claimed that the concept of "heroic flexibility"--which he used to justify nuclear negotiations in 2013--was misunderstood by those at home & abroad. 1/4 He said expediency means finding a way to overcome difficult obstacles & continue the way to reach the ultimate goal. A telling remark coupled with Abdollahian saying at this meeting they have restored balance to foreign policy away from JCPOA's dominance in Rouhani years. 2/4

I'm proud to join the Steering Group of @JCWLFinIran with @Mark_D_Wallace, @JoeLieberman, @NormColeman, @TedDeutch, @Daroff, @Eric_Fingerhut, @AmbDennisRoss, @NazeeMoinian, @sharon_nazarian, @RoyaTheWriter, @TaliFarhadian, @hivaf, James & Merryl Tisch, Tom Kaplan, & others 1/5 In keeping with the core Judaic values of tikkun olam, we today are announcing the formation of The Jewish Committee to Support #WomanLifeFreedom in #Iran. We have all been moved by the bravery of the Iranian people & the activism & unity of the diaspora. 2/5 #MahsaAmini

Important. I asked which force in #Iran—MOIS or IRGC—plotted against @AlinejadMasih in July as indictment Friday didn’t mention. @IranIntl reports it was IRGC-QF. If true, this should provide EU grounds—hot off the press—to sanction #IRGCterrorists. 1/4 This network is heavily involved in the Caucasus. There is a specific mention of IRGC-QF Unit 840 working on Masih plot. Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, who was killed in Iran last year, served under unit’s head Yazdan Mir. *Unit 840 has also plotted assassinations in Europe.* 2/4

Some commentary here is exasperating. A "no deal, no crisis" dynamic does not take into account in October 2023, UNSCR 2231's missile restrictions on #Iran are scheduled to be lifted. U.S. and E3 can't just sit idly by. That's why snapback is needed. 1/4

ft.com/content/99a1ab… “No one wants the JCPOA to die like this,” said a senior EU official. Plenty of people in U.S. and Europe do--they're uninterested in giving IRI a lifeline. This nostalgia and attachment to a product from 2015 is unhealthy and detached from reality. 2/4

A few thoughts about @USEnvoyIran's reported meetings with #Iran's UN ambassador. U.S. has an obligation to bring American hostages home & these meetings could have been about those cases. It may have also been telegraphing red lines on nuclear file. 1/5

iranintl.com/en/202301183386 Engagement between U.S. & Iran at UN in New York isn't new, even though Khamenei prohibited direct contacts during Vienna negotiations. That being said, releasing funds to Iran now would be a terrible idea--it risks being construed as an external intervention amid protests. 2/5

Thread: with @JPN_PMO due to visit @POTUS on Friday, it's a good time to ask what has #Japan done to hold #Iran's regime accountable for arming #Russia in #Ukraine? What has it done to hold Tehran accountable for human rights abuses? Supportive votes at UN, but no sanctions. 1/4 Japan voted in favor of kicking Iran off of @UN_CSW & establishing a special investigative mechanism @UN_HRC, but it has been the only member of the G7 not to levy any sanctions on Tehran since September. 2/4

Today Khamenei for the first time in a while spoke about #Iran JCPOA to Basij, saying “Negotiation will not solve our problems w. America. Only one thing would solve our problem with America & that is paying ransom...but not just one ransom, they would always ask for ransom." 1/5 Khamenei has uttered this line before--including in lead-up to the inking of the JCPOA in 2015. But the context here is different--it shows Khamenei unlikely to conclude a deal, especially in light of the situation regarding the #IranRevoIution2022. 2/5
iranintl.com/en/202211260138

Momentum: as of October, EU levied its 2nd tranche of human rights sanctions on #Iran since 2013, w. another set scheduled for Monday. Canada has issued 4 sets of sanctions--its 1st designations in years. @UN_HRC is convening a special session on #Iran--its first since 2006. 1/4 Germany is issuing visa restrictions & suspending dialogues. U.S. has started a campaign to remove #Iran from @UN_CSW & issued several sanctions tranches of its own. UK has levied its first tranche of human rights sanctions on #Iran since 2013, with hopefully more on the way. 2/4

Today @UANI is launching an online petition calling on the U.S., EU, & G7 countries to hold #Iran's regime accountable for its crimes against humanity & support for terrorism. Please use the below link to add your name to the petition. #MahsaAmini. 1/7

unitedagainstnucleariran.com/hold-iran-acco… We are calling for the following measures:
(1) The U.S. & E3 should end nuclear negotiations with #Iran's regime aimed at reviving the 2015 JCPOA, which risks resourcing the very entities & individuals oppressing the Iranian people. 2/7

Watching this hearing with @USEnvoyIran thus far, I think the questioning is focused too much on rehashing the old arguments for and against the #Iran JCPOA. There have not been detailed questions asked so far about the deal that is on the table now. That is unfortunate. 1/4 I understand @USEnvoyIran would be reluctant to divulge the details, but when he speaks in his testimony about providing "limited sanctions relief in exchange for #Iran taking important steps to roll back and constrain its nuclear program," the use of the word "limited" 2/4

#BREAKING: After Israeli businessmen were targeted in @cyprus by an Azeri assassin deployed by #Iran, Azeri security forces have launched a widespread operation against pro-Iranian elements in the country, Israel Hayom has learned. 1/4

israelhayom.com/2021/10/05/aze… This also comes amid broader tensions between Baku & Tehran. Thus far, the operation has included the arrests of activists who have been trying to promote the approach of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Azerbaijan. 2/4

#Iran's President-elect Ebrahim Raisi writes to Khamenei asking to be relieved of his duties as chief justice so he can focus on preparing to assume office--setting the stage for a new chief justice appointment by Khamenei. 1/4

en.mehrnews.com/news/175538/Ra… Some potential candidates for chief justice are Ahmad Mortazavi Moghadam, chief of the Supreme Court. 2/4

Thread: #Iran's supreme leader spoke tonight ahead of the presidential election on Friday. He calls this "an event in the country that determines the fate of the nation" despite mass disqualifications and Khamenei remaining in firm control at the top of the system. 1/ It could be pivotal though if this is part of a plan to install Raisi as Khamenei's heir. Khamenei says if republican part of Islamic Republic is overlooked, Islamic Republic will not be realized--despite Khamenei himself gutting that very part of the system. Can't make it up. 2/

Thread: #Iran's Supreme Leader gave a speech for the New Year today. Some takeaways: (1) Khamenei focuses as usual on the need for more production, saying there has been a rise in production in some fields, but not in all. 1/15 (2) Alluding to the next president, Khamenei says the new management must be anti-corruption; be able to overcome the problems of the country; must have a popular base; and sanctions will then become ineffective. This focus is part of what he calls "nullifying sanctions." 2/15

Three takeaways from Khamenei's #Nowruz message: (1) another year, another production slogan. This year he has selected: “Production: supports and removing barriers.” (2) he talks about how "sensitive and important" 1400 will be because of the elections... 1/4 saying that there will be "new managers" who "will be "energetic & who will have strong motivation." Important language as it is perhaps a veiled criticism of Rouhani administration & follows call for a "young & Hezbollah" gov. 2/4

reuters.com/article/uk-ira…