Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that depending on weather and supply conditions, we could see an offensive against the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in the coming weeks or months.

#RussianUkrainianWar
Many signs of the upcoming large scale offensive are indeed there.

According to many russian sources, Ukraine has been preparing for an offensive in #Zaporizhzia for a long time.

Rybar has even drawn a map of possible directions of the ukrainian offensive.
According to russian military blogger Begov, ukrainian artillery is currently very rarely conducting fire missions on the Zaporizhzia front, suggesting that there might be an major offensive coming soon.
Other possible place for an major offensive is Kreminna-Svatove front.

Meteorological factors have been hindering offensive operations in the north but forecasts are now showing that the weather is turning colder in the coming weeks, making the big offensive more possible.
The Institute for the Study of War:

"It will likely take the ground some days of consistent freezing temperatures to solidify, which means that ground conditions are likely to be set to allow the pace of operations to increase throughout Ukraine in the coming week"
Poorly equipped russian troops are likely just preparing to counter the upcoming ukrainian offensives.

This theory is supported with a lot of evidence about the defense lines built in many parts of the front, Svatove for example.

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More from @TallbarFIN

Nov 26
Finland will soon become a NATO frontline state, located close to Russia's important strategic areas, the surroundings of St. Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula

Finnish membership is expected to bolster the alliance's eastern flank and its collective defenses in northern Europe. Image
Until now, Finland has been a contributor of security in Europe by guarding its border with Russia.

As a NATO member it will put this colossal capability at the alliance’s disposal.

The greatest benefit Finland brings to NATO is really to take care of the border with Russia. Image
As retired Adm. Juhani Kaskeala, (Finland’s chief of defense until 2009) says:

"We knew that we’d be contributors rather than consumers of security in Europe. I don’t want to brag, but our military capabilities should definitely be taken seriously.” Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 14
Reports coming in that whole #Mykolaiv region is now liberated.

On friday 11.11, Ukrainian Special Forces conducted an amphibious attack on #Kimburn Spit.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces reached the village of #Heroiske.

The offensive operations continue from there.

#UkraineWar
Read 5 tweets
Nov 13
When you realize that AFU only needs to advance around 100km, from #Orikhiv to #Melitopol to end the war & safe to say - change the world.

Let that sink in. Russia's defeat & absolute ukrainian victory is that near.

#UkraineRussiaWar️ Image
Of course Russia will throw absolutely everything they have to prevent that. Looks small & simple on the map but its not.

AFU would likely start anohter offensive in Luhansk or somewhere else at the same time just like it did in Kharkiv.

Doesn't look good for the russians.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 13
If Ukraine manages to achieve a permanent foothold on #Kinburn Peninsula, that would already endanger the russian front on the eastern bank of Dnipro river.

If the major offensive in #Zaporizhia would succeed & reach Melitopol, whole front in #Kherson would collapse. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 16
Iran is preparing to send the first patch of Fateh-110 & Zolfaghar ballistic missile systems to Russia

They have a range of 300km-700km, so Russia will surely fill its depleted ballistic missile stocks with iranian missiles

Western powers should really reconsider the ATACMS now ImageImage
There are also rumors that Iran is selling more powerful drones to Russia.

Iranian heavy kamikaze drone Kian (Arash) has a range of nearly 1000km and it has larger warhead than the current iranian/russian drones operating in Ukraine have. ImageImage
Russia has also ordered Iranian Arash 2 drones.

They are very similar to turkish now famous Bayraktar drones that Ukraine has used efficiently in this war. Image
Read 4 tweets

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