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Nov 27 โ€ข 4 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
(1/3)
โ€‹โ€‹@InformNapalm hints:
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ GRU plans to de-Lukashenko-ize Belarus
- if true, chaos likely
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ perceives Union ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ/๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ State as disfunctional
- #Lukashenko may be replaced by Gen. Alexander Volfovich or Gen. Stanislav Zas (CSTO)
- both top-brass ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ are seen as pro-Russian
(2/3)
- remarkable & unexpected death of ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ MFA Vladimir Makei who was completely healthy as a horse
- reportedly VM served as a secret communication channel for Lukashenko with the West (via Austria).
- now these links are cut-off.
- VM considered as independent from Moscow
Unverified.
Source: Leonid Nevzlin who occupied various high-ranking positions at Group Menatep and its subsidiary, the Yukos Oil Company.
#Lukashenko after Makeiโ€™s death decided to reshape his PSE.

#FSB #Belarus
bit.ly/3VC5f99

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More from @JanR210

Nov 30
Source: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ. ๐Ÿงต 1/n
#Russian arty counterbattery (CBF/ะšะ‘ะ‘) tactics & why ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ canโ€™t destroy ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ artillery. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Assessments.

- in short: no intel, no experience.
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ is strong & well armed with Soviet & Western weapons, linked with contemporary centrix-based comms supported with AI.
2/n
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ operates along the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ concept of multidomain battle (air, land, sea, space, cyber) with live intel, uninterrupted combat readiness inside the OODA loop.
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ noticed that the tactics ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ employs is not what ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ expects.
3/n
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ artillery (10-12 pieces) disperse into autonomous groups with 2-4 pieces each (on an area up to 100 sq kms); no ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆradio activity whatsoever.
- autonomous means each ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ group cdr is authorized to plan its operations independently from other groups.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 28
Source: ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. bit.ly/3UgTbJz
๐Ÿงต 1/n
Kadyrovโ€™s army
- no tanks/artillery/AD
- backbone: MRAP/BTR/BMP
- 3 helicopters (unarmed). NFI.

ORBAT:
- 141 special "Kadyrov" regiment North
- 249 separate special battalion South
- special QRF (ะกะžะ‘ะ ) "Ahmat"
2/n
- special mobile unit (ะžะœะžะ) "Ahmat-Grozny"
- special "Kadyrov" police regiment
- From June 2022 4 more battalions were established:
"North-", "South-", "West-" & "East-Ahmat"

Unique Armament:
- Arlan MRAP (๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ)
- Stallion II (๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด)
- LSV Zibar Mk.2 (๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ)
- LSV "ะงะฐะฑะพั€ะท-ะœ3/ะœ6"
3/n

-LMV Iveco "ะ ั‹ััŒ"
-BTR ะ—-ะกะขะก 6ั…6 "ะ ะตะผะดะธะทะตะปัŒ" (based on KAMAZ-5350)
- ะ‘ะœะŸ-1ะŸ (BMP-1P)

Regular ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ armament:
- BTR-70M/80/82
- BRDM-2
- SBA-60K2 Bulat as Ural-VV & Patrol-A 6x6
- K-53949 "Tayfun-ะš" in two config.
- ะš-4386 "Tayfun-VDV"
- ะš-63968 "Tayfun"
Read 5 tweets
Nov 17
๐Ÿงต
#Russian tactical radios
1/ Long story short: it is FUBAR.
But if you want some more details, enjoy. But keep in mind it is not a comprehensive ๐Ÿงต. The more I read in ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forums, the more questions arise. I hope some readers have better knowledge than me and answer them. ๐Ÿ‘‰2/
2/ who is the architect of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ signals troops and where is he now? His name is GenCol Khalil Arslanov (2013-2020). And his position was Chief of Main Signals Directorate of the Russian General Staff. Now accused for corruption, but his court case is classified from June 2022.
3/ The responsible the purchase of the Azart digital radios confessed that the contract (18.5 billion RUR) was artificially increased by 6.7 billion RUR.
And in reality the radios were purchased in ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ, only cosmetic touches were added in Russia. Here export & military versions. ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Nov 14
#Russian mobilization system (1/3). Shortly.
1.Soviet model disbanded in 2009
- โ€œmobilizationโ€ officersโ€™ specialties erased
- military universities stopped teaching โ€œmobilizationโ€
- voenkomats re-subordinated to civilian administrations
(2/3)
- numerous โ€œmothballedโ€ units/depots disbanded
- training area sold, ammunition for sale/training/utilization

2.mobilization system restored in 2018
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บMoD attempt to reverse the losses
- but to restore was much more difficult than liquidate
(3/3)
- current production went to active army, not depots
- regions or PMC started to buy en masse defense production
- still the system is saturated with corruption

The system was maintained for 50+ years, vanished for 10, now it is a makeshift & impromptu patchwork.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6
๐Ÿงต. 1/n
Source: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ
Assessment of the #RussianArmy

- #RussianArmy unable to gain advantage over technologically comparable enemy
- trained to parade & prevent, not win the war
- inadequate ORBAT (because not necessary in daily/parade routine) without:
2/n
- modern signals units
- reconnaissance units
- UAVs
- direct link to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ satellites
- ammunition, especially precise
- sights/scopes/optics/NVGs/thermal

Inadequate/limited training w/o
- night livex
- medical
- maintenance/logistics/repair scenarios
3/n

- camouflage/concealed deployment
- all directions manouvre (withdrawal/retrograde/flanking/encircling)
- rear area security
- liaison officer exchange & General Staff attached monitors
Read 6 tweets
Oct 5
1/n
#Russian defense tactics in short headers:
- based on strengthened separated (200-900m) points
- the "empty" spaces covered by artillery & obstacles (mines)
- but not in Donbas, where the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ defense is much denser & cover/protect one another with fire
2/n
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ defense are often along rivers but once ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ bridgeheads are established, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ unable to defeat them
- ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ can and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ canโ€™t maneuver their center of gravity
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ artillery is not flexible
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ units/commanders like having a significant space in front of them (no manโ€™s land)
3/n
- this no manโ€™s land serves as observation & artillery strike area
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ need this to recognize ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ avenues of approaches
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ arty not prepared to strike in the depths of own formation
- ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ units also untrained to fight inside large forests
cc @STRATPOINTS_EU @TheStudyofWar
Read 4 tweets

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