(1/3)
โโ@InformNapalm hints:
- ๐ท๐บ GRU plans to de-Lukashenko-ize Belarus
- if true, chaos likely
- ๐ท๐บ perceives Union ๐ท๐บ/๐ง๐พ State as disfunctional
- #Lukashenko may be replaced by Gen. Alexander Volfovich or Gen. Stanislav Zas (CSTO)
- both top-brass ๐ง๐พ are seen as pro-Russian
(2/3)
- remarkable & unexpected death of ๐ง๐พ MFA Vladimir Makei who was completely healthy as a horse
- reportedly VM served as a secret communication channel for Lukashenko with the West (via Austria).
- now these links are cut-off.
- VM considered as independent from Moscow
Unverified.
Source: Leonid Nevzlin who occupied various high-ranking positions at Group Menatep and its subsidiary, the Yukos Oil Company. #Lukashenko after Makeiโs death decided to reshape his PSE.
- in short: no intel, no experience.
- ๐บ๐ฆ is strong & well armed with Soviet & Western weapons, linked with contemporary centrix-based comms supported with AI.
2/n - ๐บ๐ฆ operates along the ๐บ๐ธ concept of multidomain battle (air, land, sea, space, cyber) with live intel, uninterrupted combat readiness inside the OODA loop.
- ๐ท๐บ noticed that the tactics ๐บ๐ฆ employs is not what ๐ท๐บ expects.
3/n - ๐บ๐ฆ artillery (10-12 pieces) disperse into autonomous groups with 2-4 pieces each (on an area up to 100 sq kms); no ๐บ๐ฆradio activity whatsoever.
- autonomous means each ๐บ๐ฆ group cdr is authorized to plan its operations independently from other groups.
Source: ๐บ๐ฆ. bit.ly/3UgTbJz
๐งต 1/n
Kadyrovโs army
- no tanks/artillery/AD
- backbone: MRAP/BTR/BMP
- 3 helicopters (unarmed). NFI.
ORBAT:
- 141 special "Kadyrov" regiment North
- 249 separate special battalion South
- special QRF (ะกะะะ ) "Ahmat"
2/n - special mobile unit (ะะะะ) "Ahmat-Grozny"
- special "Kadyrov" police regiment
- From June 2022 4 more battalions were established:
"North-", "South-", "West-" & "East-Ahmat"
๐งต #Russian tactical radios 1/ Long story short: it is FUBAR.
But if you want some more details, enjoy. But keep in mind it is not a comprehensive ๐งต. The more I read in ๐ท๐บ forums, the more questions arise. I hope some readers have better knowledge than me and answer them. ๐2/
2/ who is the architect of ๐ท๐บ signals troops and where is he now? His name is GenCol Khalil Arslanov (2013-2020). And his position was Chief of Main Signals Directorate of the Russian General Staff. Now accused for corruption, but his court case is classified from June 2022.
3/ The responsible the purchase of the Azart digital radios confessed that the contract (18.5 billion RUR) was artificially increased by 6.7 billion RUR.
And in reality the radios were purchased in ๐จ๐ณ, only cosmetic touches were added in Russia. Here export & military versions.
#Russian mobilization system (1/3). Shortly.
1.Soviet model disbanded in 2009
- โmobilizationโ officersโ specialties erased
- military universities stopped teaching โmobilizationโ
- voenkomats re-subordinated to civilian administrations
(2/3)
- numerous โmothballedโ units/depots disbanded
- training area sold, ammunition for sale/training/utilization
2.mobilization system restored in 2018
- ๐ท๐บMoD attempt to reverse the losses
- but to restore was much more difficult than liquidate
(3/3)
- current production went to active army, not depots
- regions or PMC started to buy en masse defense production
- still the system is saturated with corruption
The system was maintained for 50+ years, vanished for 10, now it is a makeshift & impromptu patchwork.
๐งต. 1/n
Source: ๐ท๐บ
Assessment of the #RussianArmy
- #RussianArmy unable to gain advantage over technologically comparable enemy
- trained to parade & prevent, not win the war
- inadequate ORBAT (because not necessary in daily/parade routine) without:
2/n - modern signals units
- reconnaissance units
- UAVs
- direct link to ๐ท๐บ satellites
- ammunition, especially precise
- sights/scopes/optics/NVGs/thermal
Inadequate/limited training w/o
- night livex
- medical
- maintenance/logistics/repair scenarios
3/n
- camouflage/concealed deployment
- all directions manouvre (withdrawal/retrograde/flanking/encircling)
- rear area security
- liaison officer exchange & General Staff attached monitors
1/n #Russian defense tactics in short headers:
- based on strengthened separated (200-900m) points
- the "empty" spaces covered by artillery & obstacles (mines)
- but not in Donbas, where the ๐ท๐บ defense is much denser & cover/protect one another with fire
2/n - ๐ท๐บ defense are often along rivers but once ๐บ๐ฆ bridgeheads are established, ๐ท๐บ unable to defeat them
- ๐บ๐ฆ can and ๐ท๐บ canโt maneuver their center of gravity
- ๐ท๐บ artillery is not flexible
- ๐ท๐บ units/commanders like having a significant space in front of them (no manโs land)
3/n - this no manโs land serves as observation & artillery strike area
- ๐ท๐บ need this to recognize ๐บ๐ฆ avenues of approaches
- ๐ท๐บ arty not prepared to strike in the depths of own formation
- ๐ท๐บ units also untrained to fight inside large forests
cc @STRATPOINTS_EU@TheStudyofWar