Tweet

More from @JavierBlas

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

Nov 26

OIL MARKET: Washington eases its oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing Chevron (for the next 6 months) to pump crude in the Latin American nation and export it into the United States. A major shift in the White House policy | #OOTT #Venezuela $CVX 🇻🇪 ⛽️ 🇺🇸

The easing of the oil sanctions come as the Venezuelan government and the democratic opposition re-started talks, brokered by Norway and Mexico. The talks between the two sides are the first direct contact in a year | #OOTT

A bit of extra context: before the sanctions were imposed, the joint-ventures between Chevron and PdVSA, the Venezuelan state-owned oil company, pumped about 200,000 b/d. So that's probably as much extra crude as we can expect -- and that will require time, money and expertise

Read 4 tweets

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

Nov 20

FULL DOCUMENT: The #COP27 political-policy text (aka, “cover”) is full of diplomatic language gymnastics. Note, for example, the reference to “low-emission” energy to mean gas and nuclear (and probably carbon-captured oil). Full comuniqué is here: unfccc.int/sites/default/… 1/4🧵

A couple of additional points: no advance from COP26 on coal: the COP27 document simply reiterates the Glasgow wording: coal remains a phase down, not a phase-out (and, in reality, coal demand is going up, on track for a record high both in 2022-23, surpassing the 2013 peak) 2/4

#COP27 doesn’t move the needle on fossil fuels either, simply copy-and-pasting COP26 language on the need to phase-out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” (but, in reality, subsidies are up!!).

Early attempts to call for a phase down of fossil fuel *consumption* were killed 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

Nov 5

@jfarchy

When @jfarchy and I wrote in 'The World for Sale' the story of how Marc Rich inserted himself in the 1980s into a gov-to-gov oil deal between Iran and Burundi, we thought we were telling a commodity deal from a long gone buccaneering era (see below a fragment from the book) | 1/5

To trade oil with Iran and Burundi, Rich created a mysterious outfit called the Compagnie Burundaise de Commerce, (or Cobuco for short), directed by an enterprising employee who went by the pseudonym Monsieur Ndolo | 2/5

It turns out that the heirs of Rich (today's Glencore) were doing the same 40 years later: insert themselves into a similar gov-to-gov oil deal (paying bribes included). The only thing that changed was the countries: this time it was Nigeria and Malawi; the rest was similar | 3/5

Read 5 tweets

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

Oct 27

@IEA

The annual @IEA's World Energy Outlook is out.

It present 3 *scenarios* for energy supply and demand to 2050. In all, it sees fossil fuel consumption will hit a peak in a few years, but the trajectory after that is very different in each scenario | 1/4
iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7e42db9…

The report says that "the proximate cause of the crisis was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine". But it adds that "pressure on markets was visible before February 2022". Per the IEA: "The key underlying imbalance, which had been some years in the making, relates to
investment" 2/4

The IEA says investment in green energy isn't growing fast enough, and has only seen a notable acceleration over the last couple of years. Meanwhile, investment in fossil fuel has dropped over the last few years while oil, gas, and coal demand has kept growing 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

Oct 14

A few thoughts about the White House's claim that several OPEC nations communicated to Washington "privately that they also disagreed with the Saudi decision [to cut oil production], but felt coerced to support Saudi’s direction" #OOTT 1/6

Over the last three years, we have witnessed at least two instances when OPEC+ nations disagreed with Saudi Arabia, and were willing to have a very public fight about it (Mexico in April 2020, and UAE in July 2021). We saw nothing of that sort this time | #OOTT 2/6

The OPEC+ meeting in Vienna was very short, suggesting that ministers had already received instructions for a deal from their capitals, and everyone was onboard. If anyone disagreed, it didn't disagree so much as to have a fight. That suggests internal consensus | #OOTT 3/6

Read 6 tweets

Javier Blas

@JavierBlas

Aug 3

OPEC+ agreed to a tiny oil output hike of 100,000 b/d for Sept, sending Brent back above $100 a barrel.

The increase (the 2nd smallest hike in the cartel's history, only behind one in 1986) comes despite President Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia | #OOTT 1/4 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The OPEC+ 100,000 b/d output hike compares to an expectation in Washington only a few days ago that Saudi Arabia would lead the cartel to boost production by 400,000-500,000 b/d. For weeks, US officials have said they expected positive steps at the Aug 3 OPEC+ meeting | #OOTT 2/4

The OPEC+ increase isn't real, either, as most member are already pumping at their maximum capacity. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE can increase. If they adhere to their quotas, the 100,000 b/d translates in an extra 26,000 b/d for Riyadh and 8,000 b/d for Abu Dhabi | #OOTT 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Share this page!

Javier Blas

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @JavierBlas

Javier Blas

Javier Blas

Javier Blas

Javier Blas

Javier Blas

Javier Blas

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!