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Albert Pinto Profile picture
@70sBachchan
Nov 29, 2022 • 15 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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On Tuesday 3pm EST, join us at Polycrisis @phenomenalworld for an awesome panel to discuss:
MONEY & THE CLIMATE CRISIS
bit.ly/money-and-clim…

featuring: @MonaAli_NY_US, @rishirbhandary, @AGelpern, @AvinashPersau15, @Brad_Setser, and @adam_tooze
Climate crisis has added fuel to a debt fire. Global south countries borrowing costs have soared just when they need it the most. Many face impossible choices.

This is menu of what must be done. What are political blockages to action on these fronts?
eurodad.org/a_tale_of_two_…
3/ Burdened by Covid, Debt & Climate crises, Latin & Central Am are at frontlines of 21stC system-level shocks. Green investment, debt write-offs, and bigger welfare states are solutions.

Must-read by Tooze on dollar world-order adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne…
4/ The position of developing countries is analogous to the position of municipalities in rich countries. Both face extremely high financing costs in bond markets even though they need to do adaptation & decarbonization the most.
5/ Climate & finance ppl must grok geopolitics. "Interwoven into Anglo-American legal and financial wealth-defense networks is a transnational security apparatus"

Read @MonaAli_NY_US essay why dollar hegemony is more entrenched than ever before.
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/regim…
6/ There have been a slew of proposals to reform IMF & World Bank governance as they empower put creditor interests.

Unequal country quotas at the IMF make climate-vulnerable countries underrepresented in decisions that disproportionately impact them.
bu.edu/gdp/files/2022…
7/ Are there ways to break the deadlock? Can climate finance flow without changing intl finance architecture?

If you have heard about Barbados PM Mia Mottley's "Bridgetown Agendaa" and want to know more about it, @AvinashPersau15 fine essay is here:
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/br…
8/ In bombshell report @danielmunevar finds poor countries will pay an astonishing $330B in debt service on bonds worth $691B. What governs the size of the pound of flesh that global bondholders demand for lending money to poor countries? ht @policytensor
policytensor.substack.com/p/global-polar…
9/ @rishirbhandary on how intl fin architecture is being pushed
">#COP27 called on MDBs to do more on climate finance
>Yellen has called for a World Bank evolution roadmap
>G20 report on MDB capital adequacy shows they could increase lending by billions"
opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/…
10/ It is a rich irony that states who drilled the most oil and gas - US, Saudi Arabia, UAE etc - also have the money that is being used for climate finance

Unsurprisingly, they want to keep drilling & don't want to turn into "stranded countries". Thread
11/ Climate finance is riddled with greenwashing schemes.
Saudis and Emiratis are taking Biden's CCS and Hydrogen program to the developing world. The "Build Back Better world agenda", is brought to you by the gulf petrostates #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Nothing in life is certain except destabilizing climate, 'uneven & combined development' & taxes.

Join us in a few hours (3pm EST) with an amazing panel to discuss Climate, global political economy, & power. There will be a recording if you can't make it
bit.ly/money-and-clim…
"Problem of modernization has not gone away. In fact, it has returned with unprecedented urgency with #climatecrisis. The advanced nations of the world want a global energy transition. The Third World states have more urgent priorities..."
@policytensor
policytensor.substack.com/p/global-polar…
Cracking Polycrisis panel on Money, Climate, Debt is now live. Tune in here:
Fun & insightful Polycrisis panel. If you missed it,don't FOMO. Recording here:
-Financing & dollars are drying up for rest of the world just when they need it the most
-get domestic politics right & countries can creatively do a lot

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More from @70sBachchan

Albert Pinto Profile picture
Aug 14
“The market will solve climate”

The market:
“The market will solve climate”

The market: Electricity hungry BigTech created a credits "system is akin to buying the right from a fitter colleague to say you have cycled to work, even though you arrived by a car that runs on petrol." @CamillaHodgson
ft.com/content/2d6fc3…

Image
Image
“The market will solve climate”

The market: Oil Pipelines are ESG and low carbon! This giant tub of ice-cream won't make you fat because the tub is made of zero-calorie material & by athletes.
Read 9 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Aug 2
Netanyahu assassinates Haniyeh in Tehran & Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut. We are on cusp of regional war in Middle East. Forces are being deployed, Defences readied, Redlines of targets communicated.

Thread to track ‘response function’ of each adversary
nbcnews.com/news/world/hez…
Image
2/ In Israel's corner are US, UK, Egypt, Saudis, Jordan &Abraham Accord (informal milvalliance) with oil Kingdoms - UAE, Bahrain.

They have communicated to Israel that they will defend Israel if it is attacked by Iran axis but will not participate in a war initiated by Israel Image
3/ "US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles & drones launched against Israel on April 13...But this attack could be larger...including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions" Image
Read 22 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 26
Unbelievable vibe shift in the US with Kamala Harris
Image
The vibe shift, on the ground, in swing state Wisconsin

" Kamala Harris electrified the crowd in her first campaign rally as presumptive Democratic nominee. "I haven’t felt anything like this in many, many years,possibly since President Obama’s first run"
therecombobulationarea.news/p/in-west-alli…
Image
For 2yrs, gap between sentiment & economics widen. Did Kamala end vibecession? @kylascan
"There's layers to the cake:
How people expect things to be (expectations)
How things are supposed to be (theory)
How things are (reality)"

kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecess…
Read 6 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 12
Latest @polycrisis dispatch is out. @kmac & I show just how deep the finance-ecology-geopolitics rabbit hole Hurricane Beryl goes. Sign up here:

buttondown.email/polycrisisdisp…
2/ Ecology: With super hot oceans, we are very worried about this Atlantic hurricane season. THIRTY storms are predicted plus minus 5, depending on el nino

Finance: Worry that coming devastation will shake insurance industry to the core just as 2004-5 did
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
Image
3/London, Zurich, Bermuda are home of reinsurance.
Insurance model rely on risks being 1 Uncorrelated 2 Calculable 3 Paid for by mkt returns elsewhere
But #globalwarming upends Insurance
It correlates risks (global!); creates catastrophic fat-tails; and crimps returns everywhere. Image
Read 4 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jul 4
what reading one book by Brett Christophers does to a mf
‘while it is possible to prevent businesses from doing profitable things, it is impossible to make them do things they consider insufficiently profitable’. Why do all this 'market failure' nonsense
ft.com/content/b2b6fb…
Brett Chrisopher's work on Rentier Capitalism has been eyeopening. Asset Managers like Blackrock now run the roads we drive on; the pipes that supply our drinking water; the farmland that provides our food; electricity & heat. Nice profile

@ddhitchens
compactmag.com/article/how-as…
Under capitalism, profit expectations drive companies’ invstmt decisions. Building solar/wind & selling the electricity they generate, however, generally is not a very profitable business What sort of returns do investors earn, asks Brett Christophers time.com/6958606/climat…
Image
Read 9 tweets
Albert Pinto Profile picture
Jun 4
Yes, BJP still sets the terms in the Indian parliament. But it will not have the decisive electoral majority of 2019-2024 lok sabha where it ran bills with zero opposition or consultation. After this election it will have to respect India’s opposition and democracy
India's stock market slides. Their logic?
BJP not winning in a landslide -> forced to have a NDA coalition government that will inevitably have to be more pro-welfare
--> hence the BJP cannot do nakedly pro-rich liberal reforms --> Oops, sell sell sell

Image
Adani's reversal tells you everything.
"In 9yrs of Modi’s tenure, Adani’s wealth grew from $8bn to $137bn. In 2022 alone, he made $72bn, which is more than the combined earnings of the world’s next 9 billionaires" ht @AnnPettifor

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

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Read 42 tweets

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