Albert Pinto Profile picture
Nov 29, 2022 15 tweets 11 min read Read on X
On Tuesday 3pm EST, join us at Polycrisis @phenomenalworld for an awesome panel to discuss:
MONEY & THE CLIMATE CRISIS
bit.ly/money-and-clim…

featuring: @MonaAli_NY_US, @rishirbhandary, @AGelpern, @AvinashPersau15, @Brad_Setser, and @adam_tooze
Climate crisis has added fuel to a debt fire. Global south countries borrowing costs have soared just when they need it the most. Many face impossible choices.

This is menu of what must be done. What are political blockages to action on these fronts?
eurodad.org/a_tale_of_two_…
3/ Burdened by Covid, Debt & Climate crises, Latin & Central Am are at frontlines of 21stC system-level shocks. Green investment, debt write-offs, and bigger welfare states are solutions.

Must-read by Tooze on dollar world-order adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne…
4/ The position of developing countries is analogous to the position of municipalities in rich countries. Both face extremely high financing costs in bond markets even though they need to do adaptation & decarbonization the most.
5/ Climate & finance ppl must grok geopolitics. "Interwoven into Anglo-American legal and financial wealth-defense networks is a transnational security apparatus"

Read @MonaAli_NY_US essay why dollar hegemony is more entrenched than ever before.
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/regim…
6/ There have been a slew of proposals to reform IMF & World Bank governance as they empower put creditor interests.

Unequal country quotas at the IMF make climate-vulnerable countries underrepresented in decisions that disproportionately impact them.
bu.edu/gdp/files/2022…
7/ Are there ways to break the deadlock? Can climate finance flow without changing intl finance architecture?

If you have heard about Barbados PM Mia Mottley's "Bridgetown Agendaa" and want to know more about it, @AvinashPersau15 fine essay is here:
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/br…
8/ In bombshell report @danielmunevar finds poor countries will pay an astonishing $330B in debt service on bonds worth $691B. What governs the size of the pound of flesh that global bondholders demand for lending money to poor countries? ht @policytensor
policytensor.substack.com/p/global-polar…
9/ @rishirbhandary on how intl fin architecture is being pushed
">#COP27 called on MDBs to do more on climate finance
>Yellen has called for a World Bank evolution roadmap
>G20 report on MDB capital adequacy shows they could increase lending by billions"
opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/…
10/ It is a rich irony that states who drilled the most oil and gas - US, Saudi Arabia, UAE etc - also have the money that is being used for climate finance

Unsurprisingly, they want to keep drilling & don't want to turn into "stranded countries". Thread
11/ Climate finance is riddled with greenwashing schemes.
Saudis and Emiratis are taking Biden's CCS and Hydrogen program to the developing world. The "Build Back Better world agenda", is brought to you by the gulf petrostates #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Nothing in life is certain except destabilizing climate, 'uneven & combined development' & taxes.

Join us in a few hours (3pm EST) with an amazing panel to discuss Climate, global political economy, & power. There will be a recording if you can't make it
bit.ly/money-and-clim…
"Problem of modernization has not gone away. In fact, it has returned with unprecedented urgency with #climatecrisis. The advanced nations of the world want a global energy transition. The Third World states have more urgent priorities..."
@policytensor
policytensor.substack.com/p/global-polar…
Cracking Polycrisis panel on Money, Climate, Debt is now live. Tune in here:
Fun & insightful Polycrisis panel. If you missed it,don't FOMO. Recording here:
-Financing & dollars are drying up for rest of the world just when they need it the most
-get domestic politics right & countries can creatively do a lot

• • •

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More from @70sBachchan

Mar 30
1/ "What's happening in Guyana isn't just happening there. All over the globe, oil companies are racing to tap as many of the remaining fossil fuel reserves as they can"
@jeffgoodell :

Nice @WeAreDrilled @amywestervelt
rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
stitcher.com/show/drilled

Image
2/ This is not a a story of Guyana’s PM lecturing western liberals over hypocrisy climate, oil & Amazonian forests.

But a geopolitical story of developing country elites working with western firms (Exxon) to sell to western markets (oil goes to europe)
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/offsh…
3/ "Guyana is now producing nearly as much oil as Venezuela -1 of the largest oil exporters since the 1920s & founder of OPEC

This amazing article on Exxon shows that the logic of imperial exploitation of natural resources is alive & kicking"-@GaraviniG
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/offsh…
Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21, 2023
White House request to Congress for $106 billion in emergency funding for foreign aid.

A budget tells you more than words about actual priorities. Full breakdown in this PDF incl military aid to Ukraine, Israel, intl development (World bank) etc Thread whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
Image
2/ UKRAINE: US so far has sent more than $75 billion to Ukraine. Of new $106B, Biden asks $61B for Ukraine.

~$50B military aid, loans for military gear, DOD stocks of weapons etc (Pg 4-27_
~$11.75B economic (pg 42)

New aid is opposed by GOP in House
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

Image
Image
3/Reminder why Biden's request for emergency funding looks the way it does-$106B for ukraine,israel,border, humanitarian. US congressional politics when governed by Dem president+Dem senate+Republican house makes funding requests look like a dogs breakfast
Read 4 tweets
Aug 16, 2023
“opposite responses of China and the U.S. have revealed that the two countries appear weak only because their strengths are asymmetric”

Key point from @BuddyYakov: US and China can mobilize their fiscal and productive capacity in a way that EU cannot.
noemamag.com/the-american-f…
deja vu Policy debates in US-EU-China

US, 2021:
Do more fiscal spending into the pockets of most vulnerable households and businesses!

EU, 2022:
Do more fiscal spending ....!

China, 2023:
Do more fiscal spending into the pocket of most vulnerable households and businesses
Read 6 tweets
Aug 11, 2023
Three guesses:
1 Energy transition is from fossil fuels to metal-based economy
2 Revenues from metals is tiny compared to selling fossils => No current petrostate turns into electrostate.
3 Hi Capital requirments =>Majority of extraction will take place in Global North not South Image
if 2 is true, then the future has no electrostates. None. Not Indonesia, Australia, certainly not Canada.

Revenues that a state will earn from digging metals & processing it will be too tiny to support an entire population with welfare or dividends. ft.com/content/0d2fba…
sure, very metal specific. cobalt, nickel, copper etc will continue to be in global south countries

to clarify, by majority I meant more than half, not less than half. in most ppls minds, global south is going to do all of it

Ppl forget Australia+Canada+US have capital & metals Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 3, 2023
The deranged idea—as @GhoshAmitav describes—that we are safe, that things are under control, that bad things only happen to people who are far away, persists.

Anticipating future ruin, we fail to act in the here & now.
New @polycrisis @kmac & I: phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
Image
This July has been the hottest in our recorded history and, most likely, over the last 120,000 years

On stocks and flows, action and inaction in the planetary impasse: phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
Image
Amid the climate crises, other records have been smashed too: the most air travel passengers in a single day in the US; the highest-ever profits for European carriers IAG and Air France-KLM; record oil consumption and record coal production.
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
Read 36 tweets
Jun 15, 2023
What do ppl mean when they say the existing ramshackle global financial architecture heaps pain upon the weakest & poorest shoulders?

@kmac & I wrote about negotiations between North & South at next week's Paris Summit @polycrisis. Figure ht @CSEINDIA
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa… Image
Former US National Security advisor Fiona Hill acknowledged that the “Rest” were rebelling against the West. She cited an Indian interlocutor asking, “Where are you when things go wrong for us?”

We contrast Mia Mottley in Paris with Modi in DC
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa… @kmac Image
Climate needs investments. But there is global Austerity. Countries make terrible choices between debt payments & food, energy, social services. And they almost always choose to make debt payments to not risk further downgrades.
phenomenalworld.org/analysis/globa…
Read 10 tweets

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