Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
| osint_east | Profile picture
@osint_east
Nov 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Observation: in the past three weeks the reported use of #shahed136 has declined significantly.

Early estimates (September) suggested Russia had planned to obtain 1,800 - 2,400 aerial munitions from Iran, either directly, or through relicensed assembly; many are Shahed-136.
Interceptions have slowed, implying use of the drone has declined. Increasing failure rate of interception is highly unlikely.

A few possibilities:

1. Attrition
2. E/W countermeasures
3. Stock replenishment cycle
4. Fewer media reports
5. Supply interruption
6. Training cycles Claimed Shahed-136 Intercep...
An expansive look at the Shahed-136 can be found in an earlier thread.

One additional consideration informing the declining use of the Shahed-136: weatherproofing. The precipitous decline conforms roughly with increasing cloud cover + humidity in Ukraine beginning late November.

h/t @RALee85



4/
Bear in mind that the Shahed-136 was designed by a nation where long, very hot summers & cool dry winters preside, and for use in a region characterized by ultra-hot arid climates with extremely low dew points and minimal cloud cover.

h/t @davidhelms570

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with | osint_east |

| osint_east | Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @osint_east

| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 3, 2023
It's worth noting this occurred 1) on a holiday, and 2) during a holiday celebration, making the strike perhaps more psychologically devastating.

If the same event occurred in, say, November I'm not clear outrage would be as great (though anger over incompetence would be).

1|4
They also did not die in battle...not even during rear area operations. They were just vaporized in a building while partying.

2|
From what I've gathered the mobilized are called to revive (concretely) a failing operation. Embedded is hope (of/for Russians) that they serve some patriotic capacity (abstractly-speaking), but there is likely an implicit "limit" to that...it's just not clear where.

3|
Read 5 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023
On casualty estimates and their impact:

Regardless of the actual figure: 63 as "official" toll from Russian MoD, "600" from A. Shariy who has made unsubstantiated claims/figures before–the event is considerable because of who has died: the recently-mobilized.

#Makiivka

1|4
The Russian MoD, and Kremlin at-large, has struggled to justify casualties among the mobilized, due in part to its reluctance to "officialize" many reasons for mobilization.

This has been a source of frustration among milbloggers, and the Russian public more generally.

2|
That extended PR failing has manifest widespread fear.

Local sources opened a hotline for families to check service rosters since the high-casualty claims have cemented in the discourse, and since no official source can effectively refute them.

s: t.me/sovanews63/285…

3| Translation s: https://t.me/sovanews63/28593 Sourced: Jan.
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023
Reference on the #Makiivka strike:

The building is not especially old, nor is it small. This was a large three-story building primarily of standing poured columns with likely prestressed hollowcore slabs.

i/s: t.me/grey_zone/16439

1|2 "Destroyed Vocational ...
Meaning: a possible reason for such a high death toll (est. 100-150; (500 is exaggerated)) is the result of the GMLRS munitions creating multiple rapid failures in the entire structure, leading to floors pancaking thus crushing most inside.

2|2
+1

Final note: insofar as local sources claim, the building was struck at 00:01 UTC+2, most likely when the maximum number of soldiers were present in the building.

s: t.me/NeoficialniyBe… Translation. s: https://t....
Read 5 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Jan 2, 2023
I do not yet fully understand what line B. Rozhin is towing; he oscillates between (measured) analysis and open reflections on economic/social factors.

If anything, he often comes across disappointed rather than incensed like the others.

1|3
In a strange way he seems detached at times, bordering on indifferent if only to allow (objective) reporting while others lean overly-performative.

МИГ and Rozhin are similar in this way–far more "matter of fact" language used by the two.

s: t.me/mig41/22995

2| Tranlation: MIR Sourced: J...
One interesting quirk with МИГ channel is that he only allows two emoji responses: 😢or❤️

Before even reading a message or opening discussion, you can immediately pick up on the significance of the message, and even his tone, based on those indicators alone.

3|3
Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Dec 15, 2022
Wagner is engaged on multiple fronts, but its battlefield worth is in question—most recently in a seemingly unending & futile attempt at capturing #Bakhmut. But why would a famed outfit struggle so much?

A new look at #WagnerPMC

#UkraineRussianWar
#Mercenaries

🔞

1 of 48 PART ONE: In the Shadows W...
Studies on #Wagner, a unofficial quasi-state military apparatus, illustrate #Kremlin shadow efforts aimed at enabling foreign policy objectives.

Simply, Wagner brings to bear the levers of organized violence where (official) #Russian forces cannot.

2|
This violence is an enabling force, but also a restrictive one. It is, in effect, Wagner's primary capability.

All other internal efforts (media, power-projection, political maneuvering) are oriented towards enabling and maintaining this capability.

russianpmcs.csis.org

3|
Read 49 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
It appears Wagner elements are aiming straight-west using low-density residential as an attack vector, but that likely halts when they reach the Bakhmutova River.

Unclear if toehold is a fixing action as forces N/S attempt encirclement, or a disjointed effort.

#Bakhmut

1/N
This is not an ideal vector (poor cover, flexible) but is a more efficient route to city center & river crossings.

Breaking secondary AFU defensive lines is a clear goal.

As suspected, Wagner is moving off main approaches to avoid interception.

2/
In terms of rhetoric the Wagner/milblogger narrative is kicking into gear by framing these smaller actions as more indicative of general AFU setbacks.

s: t.me/pmc_wagnera_to…
s: t.me/c/1827743879/1…

3/ Translation: Wagner PMC Sourced: Dec 14. 2022. Telegram.Translation: Wagner PMC Sourced: Dec 14. 2022. Telegram.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(