Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello there!
bonne journée à tous!

2/ Quick but very important thread.
a friend of mine just urged me to watch @LCI direct live because there was a french medic Medic name Arsene Sabanieev (franco Ukrainian) who was for several months on the diff frontlines and recently to #Bakhmut

3/ not only he absolutely confirms the data and assessment i was giving to you previously but here he directly said that :
on a regular day and only for the 10km of #Bakhmut line he was in charge, there was 50 100 150 wounded. when "calm" and when Ukr launched counteroffensive or

4/ 2 times offensive/ defensive /counter offensive, it reaches 250 300 or more wounded a DAY!
explaining terrible injuries like in the famous french movie "La chambre des officiers" (les gueules cassées" also members blown up, boddy tores and in pieces
Sometimes they had a rush

5/ and had to treat 5 to 10 guys in 10 min!
also it's really hard because wounded are coming back Full of mud and blood altogether and hard to take care of them in the cold.

so if we take now, from all this, and we extrapolate to 5,6 or 7 others areas where the situation could

6/ be the equivalent, (and of course if we understand that some days not all the areas are under the same constraints) we can EASILY deduct that we have indeed a minimum of 100 dead/day and up to 200 and some days uu to 500 to 600 wounded a day.
and i'm very "conservative" here.

7/ here today my personal excel tab sheet about the uptodate recap
(and i'm currently working on a global recap of diff scenari)

8/ so back couple weeks ago.. no real shares of my thoughts out there and my analysis (out of my friend Jacob who even recently was talking about it, again with me)
I really wonder why all the "osint" or pseudo "informational" accounts out there about Ukr reality of war are not

9/ massively sharing all these analysis.
(humm well i do know why, all the diff reasons and it's sad for people who are looking for REAL assessments)

please share and poke some of the accounts out there who are spreading infos or have major involvements in this war.
thanks

10/ ok
so side notes, people are asking who is Jacob.
well i can share this as there is nothing "secret" here :
lots of people don't know but we have really good relation and understanding with Jacob and he is one of the guy out there able to "read" past my "jéjé" low profile.

11/ this is actually the new global recap i was working on for the last couple of days (the text will come in some later days), exactly to answer the questions i'm receiving about all the kid of assessment i was doing for all this for some times now.

12/ also as explained in September for the "russian part" here :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1565074971017224196

13/ i did explained from the get go why Ukr claims for their own "losses" made no sense whatsoever :
i have a text somewhere about all that but can't find it now, so here a part of another conversations, for all

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1597973608672145409

14/ i had also that quick chat with someone (same thing sorry bu i never have time to make proper text, but you have with my excel tab all the materials you need to understand it in a good statistical point of view)

15/ so if you want to know WHY Zelensky is not giving full account of dead or injured it"s vey simple, just watch the RU claims and there own 6'500 KIA or their claim that Ukr has 150'000 death of his own...
(so basically Urk MOD certainly "decided" to give half the real number

16/ of it's own losses and then would "appear" to be ok with only the double of Russia's one.
also it's not new and i can't copy paste here all the ref of the diff war and the way countries are counting during massive global war..
it's a very long story known for ages !!

17/ i have to stop now.
maybe i'll be back later, it's hard for me right now to spend time here

#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukrainelosses #Ukraine wounded
#Ukrainecasualties #UkraineMedic #Ukrainemilitaryvolunteer (the doc explained he is like 1/2 the medical "doc" staff out there)

18/ quick side note because i can as usual people getting out of their way or asking
no it does not mean that Ru is gonna "win" or that they have same amount of casualties.. they certainly have much more
try to read my previous "engagement ratios" explanation though. to be "real"

19/ another side note to answer other questions:

as explained here (petit thread de 40 tweets :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1537089007095521285

) to explain why it is so costly to engage a well defended positions
and since then i've made lots of thread for Bakhmut area exactly to explain why Ukr need

20/ to keep the city in their hand if they can (because of important stratetic positions) but / and that they will not look for totally trying to attack to take it all back as THEN it will cost them too much men & materials for "low gain" at the end of the day.
So counter attack

21/ some day (or if really you want to size territories like the Kreminna Svatove axis) but just to give you "space" and not be "submitted" to Ru moves and gain back some "morale" with going forward sometimes..

but globally, that"s the reason why you prefer to defend if it's ok.

22/

https://twitter.com/VictorCahat/status/1600443656745365505

23/ hello la communauté Fra. si qq'un me trouve la vidéo de l'interview du medecin en Replay (ou segment sur YT) j'aimerais bien la mettre ici et mettre la version sous titrée pour les lecteurs étrangers, parce que comme ns l'avons vu sur le plateau de @LCI ce soir, cela a

24/ bouleversé pas mal de préjugé (pr ceux qui ne me suivent pas) & a bousculé exactement ce que je dénonce depuis des mois, a savoir toutes ces vidéos ronflantes et limite débiles parfois, de guerriers invincibles ou de simple destructions de matériels russes, à la queue-leu-leu

25/ as another ref/ comparison :

https://twitter.com/herodote1789/status/1600607845317283872

26/

@vidtranslator translate