Rainier Jaarsma Profile picture
Dec 8 11 tweets 7 min read
On #Serbia 🇷🇸: Both sides of the Dutch 🇳🇱 political aisle, i.e. PvdA (@TheProgressives) and VVD (@RenewEurope), call for a mechanism to:

- freeze EU accession talks
- cut all pre-accession funding
- suspend visa free travel regime nos.nl/l/2455535
The two want the 🇳🇱 government to propose a revised procedure in Brussels with an increased focus on CSFP alignment (🇪🇺 foreign/security policy). If #Serbia 🇷🇸 doesn't change course, it should be possible to suspend the most important pre-accession mechanisms, the parties say.
Van Wijngaarden (VVD/@RenewEurope): "Due to the current soft 🇪🇺 approach, #Serbia 🇷🇸 under president Vučić risks becoming a 🇷🇺 vassal state and a hub for illegal migration. They are reorienting towards 🇷🇺. We shouldn't let them get away with this." Full motion text later today.
FM @WBHoekstra today noted in 🇳🇱 parliament that #Serbia 🇷🇸 is at a turning point. "A rude awakening", with widespread disappointment at the 🇪🇺 level that after so much aid and support, 🇷🇸 opted for this path. "Anyhow, no further accession steps foreseen." tweedekamer.nl/debat_en_verga…
FM @WBHoekstra also expressed his support for #Kosovo 🇽🇰's visa liberalization, calling it one of the easier dilemmas in the region, especially compared to #BiH 🇧🇦, on which the Dutch government could have decided differently (were the geopolitical circumstances not so dire).
Several motions filed against #Serbia 🇷🇸, incl. suspension of visa free travel ('noodremmechanisme') by 03/2023 (VVD/D66/SP). Main motion: call upon the EC to propose a negative conditionality mechanism by 10/2023 (VVD/PvdA/GL/CDA/CU), which could then be used to freeze talks.
The main motion on #Serbia 🇷🇸 gained broad parliamentary support, incl. from the governing coalition. This means that the 🇳🇱 government will be asking the @EU_Commission to propose a mechanism that would (inter alia) allow for the formal freezing of accession talks by 10/2023.
The Foreign Minister asked MPs to defer the motion on suspending #Serbia's 🇷🇸 visa free regime, as the Dutch government is currently preparing its position (and a report) on this exact topic. Appreciation of this measure should be in before the Christmas 🎄 recess.
"The lower house supports our motion for a stricter treatment of #Serbia 🇷🇸 in case Pres. Vučić doesn't join EU sanctions on #Russia 🇷🇺. Suspending Serbia's EU accession process may become an option; we'd go for it without hesitation."
Interestingly, the only three parties that voted against the motion that calls upon the @EU_Commission to propose a CFSP alignment conditionality mechanism for #Serbia 🇷🇸, are three far-right parties (PVV/FVD and Van Haga), which are all vehemently against EU enlargement.
This wouldn't be the first time the Netherlands blocks Serbia's EU accession path. Back in 2008, the Netherlands blocked ratification of Serbia's Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) for two years because of Serbia's non-cooperation with the ICTY: euobserver.com/eu-political/2…

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More from @RJaarsma

Apr 8
Misleidende kop. 'Weken' tot het advies van de Commissie m.b.t. kandidaatstatus (al érg ambitieus). Vervolgens een rondje langs alle lidstaten (maanden) en dan eventueel kandidaatstatus. Dan nog eens jaren tot start toetredingsonderhandelingen. En dan nog eens min. 5-10 jaar.
Deze kop wekt de suggestie dat #Oekraïne 🇺🇦 zomaar bij de EU zou kunnen, maar daar is absoluut geen sprake van, ook niet met versnelde procedure. Plus, bovenstaand schema gaat ervan uit dat er geen dwarsliggers zijn. Klopt ook niet, want #Hongarije 🇭🇺 zal hoe dan ook traineren.
Toekennen van kandidaatstatus zou wel een goed signaal zijn; dat weerleg ik niet. Maar zelfs dat heeft een heleboel voeten in de aarde, en dan ben je alsnog mijlenver verwijderd van toetreding. Dit is een proces van vele jaren, zo niet decennia; zeker niet 'weken'.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 30
De eerste uitslagen van de volkstelling in Noord-#Macedonië 🇲🇰 zijn bekend. Er was 20 jaar niet geteld vanwege allerlei politieke strubbelingen. De bevolking zou met ongeveer 9% zijn gekrompen: seenews.com/news/n-macedon…
Qua etnische verhoudingen valt op dat het aandeel etnische Albanezen en andere minderheden in het land zelf nagenoeg gelijk is gebleven, maar het aandeel etnische Macedoniërs met zo'n 6% is gedaald. De aanwas zou dan vooral bestaan uit migranten uit derde landen, lijkt me.
Tel je ook de diaspora (langer dan 1 jaar in het buitenland) mee, dan valt op dat vooral etnische Albanezen zich daarvoor hebben gemeld. Maar liefst 66% daarvan identificeert zich als Albanees. Dat is een zeer uit het oog springende statistiek die veel besproken zal worden.
Read 16 tweets

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