Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Dec 08 to Dec 14 –
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
A new wave of #COVID19 triggered by #BQ11:
- Surging/rising in the DK (R-eff=1.22)/BE=1.17; DE=1.13; SE=1.12;
- Increasing/plateauing in FR=1.09; FL=1.07; IRL=1.06/ AU=1.04; LUX=1.04; NL=1.02; IT=1.01; GR=0.98; CH=0.97;
with low-medium mortality.

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surging/rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Slovenia (R-eff=1.20); Lithuania=1.16;
- Plateauing in Croatia=1.05; Serbia=1.02; Latvia=0.99;
with low-med mortality.

4/9 – Africa
- Green everywhere regarding its #COVID19 epidemic activity, but in Botswana (R-eff=1.63) with irregular reporting.

5/9 – Middle-East
- Surgin/increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Qatar (R-eff=1.22)/Israel (R-eff=1.08), with low mortality;
- Reported to be safe elsewhere.

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Seem to be close to peaking, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Japan (R-eff=1.04) and South Korea=1.02, with med mortality;
- Increasing in Australia=1.09, with medium mortality;
- Landing in Singapore and Taiwan=0.95 (medium mortality); and Malaysia.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Plateauing in China (R-eff=0.94), which is exiting from its #ZeroCovid strategy, very low mortality; and in Mongolia=1.20;
- Lack of news from North Korea.

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.18) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, medium mortality. 91.9% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=0.98 is plateauing, with medium mortality. 81.2% >1 dose. Red in 44 states, orange in 3 and green in 3.

9/9 – Latin America
- Surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Argentina (R-eff=1.49); Bolivia=1.41; Peru=1.30; Panama=1.23; Uruguay=1.20;
- Rising in Brazil=1.10; Costa-Rica=1.16,
with low mortality.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0