New research from Meta highlights the importance of long term advertising effects. Econometric analysis of over 3,500 campaigns reveals that 60% of the payback comes from long term effects, and only 40% from the short term.
This means that short term measurement measurement systems (which include most digital attribution models) probably underestimate ROI by a factor of ~2.5.
Short term measurement approaches tend to favour direct response channels, but this study shows that brand-building channels actually generate more sales in the long term.
Key factors for long term ROI include broad reach and long term consistency. Adding video to the mix is particularly effective.
The study shows that TV is still a remarkably powerful medium for long term brand building. But digital channels can build brands too, particularly those that carry video. Smart marketers should combine on- and off-line brand channels to maximise reach and effectiveness.
Both Facebook and Google tell me that they are pivoting away from attribution modelling towards econometrics for evaluating effectiveness. Potentially, this has big implications.
Attribution models over-estimate the short-term, direct effects of marketing. So they tend to favour performance marketing, direct response, promotions, etc.
Econometrics is better able to measure medium to long term effects, and is able to pick up the indirect effects that attribution can’t measure at all. So econometrics is less skewed towards performance, and reveals the importance of brand activity.
Peter Field & I recommend that marketers use a mix of “brand building” & “activation” comms. Our research suggests the optimum split is usually ~60% brand, ~40% activation, but varies by context.
But why split brand & activation at all? Why not do both at once?
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Definitions first.
By “brand building” we mean building & maintaining memory structures that have a lasting influence on consumer behaviour.
By “activation” we mean activating existing memory structures to elicit immediate behavioural responses.
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For example, a travel insurance firm selling to young people might sponsor a festival. If they do it well & get good exposure, they slightly increase the chance that youngsters think of them (& think well of them) when they need travel insurance. That’s brand building.