Today's @United/@BoeingAirplanes order is every bit as massive as has been teased over past weeks. The carrier added 100 firm 787 orders, 100 options, and 100 more 737 MAX to its backlog through 2032.
$UAL $BA #AvGeek#PaxEx
The first 100 787s are tipped as replacements, mostly for the 767s but also very much for the older 777s in the fleet. Indeed, despite the company waxing on about the A350 as a potential 777 replacement eventually, the vast majority of the existing 777 fleet will go to 787s.
Assuming exercise of the options, United believes that ~80% of its long-haul operations could fly on the Dreamliner by the end of the decade.
In some markets that could also mean a lot of extra Y seats, in order to keep the premium capacity flying like today.
All 767s are expected to be gone from the fleet by 2030, while the 777 retirements should start around 2027. Domestic widebody flying will remain, however, with a trickle-down approach to fleet management.
Finally, no major changes expected to the interiors, at least for now. Initial deliveries keep the current Polaris and Premium Plus offerings. But the order spans a decade, so that will likely change by the end. paxex.aero/united-787-dre…
Oh...Kirby now calls United "the world's leading global airline and the flag carrier of the United States."
I imagine the airline with the US flag painted on its tail would take issue with that.
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The sun is coming up over Newark airport where @united is celebrating its largest aircraft order in history. The massive 270 plane deal will reshape the US market in many ways. And unlike the eVTOL or Supersonic, this one is real. #UnitedNext#avgeek#paxex
The headline number is 270 new single-aisle planes, and that is massive. But it comes atop an existing order book that now reaches 500 frames. Another 300 will be retired, but these are mostly older 50-seat RJs (~200). The growth planned is hard to fathom.
United will increase its overall seat count by roughly 75,000 with this transition. This is the equivalent of adding the seat capacity of Allegiant, Frontier Airlines, and Spirit Airlines *COMBINED* into the US market. #UnitedNEXT#AvGeek#PaxEx
Been away from the TSA screening data for a few days but the trend marches steadily onward. Week to week numbers increasing at a ~3% clip in recent days (down from 5% last week) and YoY % holding in the low 30s. #PaxEx
More of the same on Wednesday, with TSA screening up 4.2% from the prior week.
TSA screening topped 900k for the first time on a non-holiday weekend since April on Sunday. T/W/S growth is slower than M/R/F/U but if these trends hold (~30k/day increase per week) could hit 800k on the 7-day moving average in a couple weeks. #PaxEx
The $DAL earnings out this morning are every bit as awful as one might expect.
Retirement of the 737-700 fleet confirmed and some 763ER and A320s also out, though counts not provided.
Earnings call now running and the news isn't good. "Business travel has not returned in any meaningful way...we remain cautious on the pace of recovery for the balance of the year," says Bastian.
Q3 is expected to be 20-25% of YoY capacity. Ouch.
'NPS have never been higher," says Bastian.
Silver lining, I suppose, for having so few passengers.
"Will Easter bookings collapse?"Tough questions kicking off the CEO panel on #A4ESummit
Also FR?? expects 10% drop in loads through at least the next few months. #AvGeek#COVID19
In 2001, 2003, 2008, 2011 the airlines kept empty planes flying more. IAG's Willie Walsh expects that to be very different this time around. Notes that some planes are grounded already. #AvGeek#A4ESummit
Ryanair's O'Leary notes that unlike post-9/11:
We haven't reduced prices. We're not trying to encourage unnecessary travel. We'll take the hit but it will be a short-lived phenomena. #AvGeek#A4ESummit
Looking at the average stage length (~600miles) an 8 cent CASM increase translates to a ~$2,400 higher trip cost (50 available seats * 600 miles * 8 cents). Selling 10 F seats on every flight isn't going to happen, but some are selling. (ORDMDT 12 days out). 2/ #PaxEx#AvGeek
And beyond the F seats, the E+ upsell opportunity further increases the revenue potential for the company. Again, United won't sell all of them, but figure a few are likely to be purchased. But neither of those are the biggest factor in play. 3/ #PaxEx#AvGeek