🚨 $ETH Mass-Selling Event Is Coming?

1/ The #ETH2 Deposit has amassed, holding 12% of the total supply.
As the $ETH exchange reserve drops down to 15% of the total supply and continues to decrease,
What will happen on $ETH after the Shanghai Hard Fork?🧵
shorturl.at/svV08 Image
2/ #Ethereum 'Shanghai Hard Fork' is set for March next year.
After the fork, it will enable withdrawals for $ETH stakers/validators from the Beacon Chain.

📝 #ShanghaiHardFork #Shanghai
🗓️ Mar 2023
theblock.co/post/193350/et…
3/ How much $ETH be withdrawn on #ETH2?💰

It can be estimated to be about 15M, or 12% of the total $ETH supply.

From a short-term perspective, there are higher APY strategies than staking rewards by depositing ETH2 that might not be promised to withdraw.
shorturl.at/grvx1 ImageImage
4/ How have the ETH2 depositors and balance changed? 📊

Compared to 2021, the number of depositors decreased by 57% in 2022.

But the deposited balance is similar to last year.

In other words, the total balance per deposit increased by 133% in 2022👀 Image
5/ What about the $ETH exchange reserve?

It may be that the balance of $ETH2 increases as the $ETH exchange reserve decreases.

18M of $ETH are held on the exchange, 15% of the total supply.
However, the exchange reserve is an ongoing downtrend.
shorturl.at/clnR1 Image
6/ After the Merge, the supply began to decline; 0.1M🔥
The supply and demand dynamics will shift after the fork, $ETH price volatility is imminent.
Will #Shanghai trigger mass-selling?
Or is it an opportunity that provides more liquidity to buy more $ETH
shorturl.at/amH18 Image

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More from @cryptoquant_com

Dec 15
What does Binance's Proof of Reserve (PoR) report tell us from an on-chain perspective?

A short thread 👇

@binance @cz_binance
The report highlighted the following points:

1- Binance’s BTC liabilities (customer deposits) are 97% collateralized by the exchange assets.

2- Collateralization increases to 101% when the BTC lent to customers is accounted for.
We compared Binance's liabilities stated in the report to CryptoQuant’s on-chain metric: Binance BTC Reserve

We found that Binance's reported liabilities are very close to what we thought they would be (99%).

Chart 👇
cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/char…
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Dec 13
⚠️ What is Whale Dumping?

How to manage your risk against whale activity by following Exchange Whale Ratio 👇
Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) is the relative size of the top 10 inflow transactions to total inflows.

🟢 During a bull market, it often stays below 85%.

🔴 During a bear market or fake bull for mass-dumping, it usually remains above 85%.

Examples 👇
🔴 Dumping risk increases when EWR > 85% Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13
➡️Miners are OG whales!

✅Any crypto investor must know how to monitor Bitcoin miners’ behavior.

3 simple metrics to manage your risk professionally👇
1️⃣ Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI)

This metric simply shows whether miners’ outflow is higher than their yearly average.

It spikes only when miners’ outflows are unusual
The below chart is a good example of how MPI was useful in 2018 and 2020 sell-offs.

Chart: cryptoquant.com/prochart/iraof… Image
Read 8 tweets
May 13
JUST-IN:

- 37k BTC flowed from @Gemini to all other exchanges, hitting an all-time high on May 8th.

- 37k BTC moved from @LFG_org reserve wallet to Gemini on May 9th.

- No significant trading volume on Gemini for now, but it's skyrocketing on other exchanges.

Thread 👇
1/ 37k $BTC moved from @Gemini to all other exchanges on May 8th, hitting the all-time high.

Live Chart 👇
cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/char…
2/ On May 9th, @LFG_org (Luna Foundation Guard) announced that 37k $BTC has been loaned to MMs.

They said that very little of the recent clip had been spent, and was currently being used to buy $UST.

Read 5 tweets
Mar 16, 2021
1/ Technically, it was an "external transfer" from BlockFi to Gemini.

Despite BlockFi uses Gemini's custody wallets, it's not the right approach to cluster them into a single entity as flows in BlockFi and flows in Gemini have different patterns.
2/ Our mission is to give transparency with on-chain data and to enable traders to react to mysterious dumping and market manipulation pre-emptively.

That's why we provide preset on-chain alerts. You can set up your custom alerts on our website as well. cryptoquant.com/alert
3/ Data was solid and the signal was correct in this case, but some words might have confused our customers.

We'll remove definitive words like 'possibly dumping' so that people can make their own decisions.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 15, 2021
Most on-chain data providers mislabel Gemini into OKEx or Coinbase.

For example, here's a user wallet from Gemini. If you see this user wallet <> hot wallet transaction,

@bitinfocharts says it's OKEx.
@whale_alert says it's Coinbase.
@CryptoQuant_com has a very conservative algorithm maximizing a dusting process by directly sending BTC to exchanges. Other data providers are maximizing on clustering, which might mislabel other exchanges' wallets.
The worst way to collect address labels is by copying other data providers' labels. What makes ruining this industry is most data providers copying other providers' data.

Sending crypto directly to exchanges is not cost-effective, but it's the most accurate way.
Read 4 tweets

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