Bitcoin Hits ATH: Is It Time to Sell or Hold?

MVRV > 3.7 has historically marked market tops.

Explore these 4 additional key metrics to better understand market timing and make more informed decisions.

Details below 👇 Fear & Greed Index above 80

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a popular tool for gauging market sentiment, particularly greed.

Generally, when the index exceeds a value of 80, caution is advised.

While the market can continue to rise during times of high greed, this often signals that a top is near.

🧵 #Bitcoin valuation struggles below $60K post-Q1 2024, showing a demand drop.

Key factors: fewer permanent holders, dwindling whale activity, and lower spot ETF interest.

Let's dive into it ⬇️ Market sentiment towards Bitcoin is waning, evident from negative Coinbase premiums and lesser leverage in futures.

This decrease in enthusiasm suggests a cautious approach from traders.

What Data Changed Before The Price Correction?

1. SSR hits a 2-year high
2. Mara Pool's Distribution
3. 50%+ Circulating Bitcoin Supply in Profit
4. Long Term Holders' Resistance

The majority of the latest Quicktake posts flagged #Bitcoin price correction.

Thread🧵

1/ SSR hits a 2-year high

"In essence, a high SSR(Stablecoin Supply Ratio) means that Bitcoin is perceived as having greater value compared to stablecoins, showing that market participants are placing higher value on Bitcoin."

Quicktake Post by @Woo_Minkyu

1-3/ Can we verify @Tether_to being the 11th largest #Bitcoin holder with the on-chain data?

4-6/ What is the blind spot of on-chain data when monitoring #Whales' behavior?

Let's BUST this week's FUDs with our on-chain data.

Thread🧵 1/ #Tether

Tether revealed in its recently released quarterly report that it holds approximately $1.6 billion worth of #Bitcoin.

The amount of bitcoin held by Tether puts it roughly 11th in terms of holdings.

https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1687522794421047299?s=20

#Bitcoin Institutional Fund Accumulation Trends
by @OnchainTarek

Thread🧵 1/ "Fund holdings" refer to the cryptocurrency holdings of institutional investors, including hedge funds, investment firms, and cryptocurrency private funds. Analyzing the holdings of these funds provides valuable insights into the market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Binance Exchange On-Chain Analysis in the Context of CFTC-SEC-Binance Lawsuit Cases

On a nominal basis, Binance has experienced large net outflows of Bitcoin and Ethereum after today's SEC lawsuit announcement.

Details on the thread🧵 1/4
These net outflows are more significant than when the CFTC sued the exchange in March 2023. However, net outflows so far are smaller than what the exchange has experienced in other periods of "stress" (or regulatory FUD).
$BTC, $ETH, $Stablecoins

Binance Exchange's Health After the CFTC Lawsuit

CQ's research team assessed the behavior of Binance net-outflows and reserves of $BTC, $ETH, and Stablecoins in three recent stress-test periods.
- Regulatory FUD after FTX Collapse
- Paxos' announcement
- CFTC lawsuit

Thread🧵 1/ #Bitcoin

Regulatory FUD
A netflow of -40,353 BTC in a day and total netflows of -78,744 BTC in a week.

Paxos' announcement
The largest daily netflow was on Feb 12th for -5,027 BTC.

CFTC lawsuit
A daily netflow of -4,505 BTC.

They have remained inside historical ranges.

2 Reasons Why BTC's Recent Rally Abated

1- Short-term holders
2- Whales

🧵👇 Recently, the price of Bitcoin increased from ~$24K to ~$28K, but now the pace of the price rally has halted.

In fact, it fell from a nine-month high of $28.8k to $26.9k in the last week.

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#Gemini Exchange on-chain analysis in the context of Genesis-
@Gemini Liquidity Issues 🧵👇 From an on-chain perspective, Gemini has been experiencing declining exchange activity:

1- Cryptocurrency reserves (BTC, ETH, and stablecoins reserves are at multi-year lows),

1/4
What do on-chain metrics show us about whale behaviors starting in 2023?

Whales have practically stopped selling their coins since early December. This puts less downward pressure on the price. 2/4
However, we have yet to observe whales accumulating coins in any significant way.

The entire amount of whale ownership is still 10% below the peak it attained in June 2022.

For prices to rebound and surge, there has to be an increase in whale holdings.

📑Weekly Fud Buster Dashboard
- Pi is open for trade in @HuobiGlobal
- Ongoing noises with @FTX_Official and @SBF_FTX
- @cameron 's open letter to @BarrySilbert
- @BlackRock loaned to @Core_Scientific

Here's the wrap-up of the latest Crypto Issues.🧵
cryptoquant.com/dashboard/63b2… /1 @PiCoreTeam is now open for trade in the #Huobi.

What can be the reasons behind Huobi listing $Pi in their service?
- To increase Huobi's Stablecoins Reserve
- To generate more revenue from trading fees

What are the potential dangers?

Link👇
cryptoquant.com/dashboard/63b2…

2 questions about #Tether #USDT FUD?

1- What are the sources?
2. What do on-chain metrics tell us about it, particularly in 2022 during LUNA and FTX events?

Assessing the @Tether_to risk 👇 Recently, a Wall Street Journal article pointed out that more and more of Tether's assets are secured loans, which led to more criticism of the quality of Tether's assets.

wsj.com/articles/risin…

Since the FTX/Alameda collapse, the funding rates have been coming back faster than after two major capitulation events, COVID and the China ban.

By following this metric, investors can monitor market sentiment. How? 👇 Funding rates make the perpetual futures contract price close to the index price.

Derivatives exchanges use funding rates (%) for perpetual contracts.

Are we seeing a change in bitcoin's trend right now?

We could be very close based on one measure 👇

The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse Metric The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse Metric is a summary of how traders and investors act.

Traders and investors are more likely to take risks and send coins to derivatives exchanges if it is going up.

📑Weekly Fud Buster Dashboard
- Ongoing FUDs on @binance
- @realDonaldTrump 's "Trump Digital Trading Cards" #NFT
- Classic old FUDs on @Tether_to

Here's the wrap-up on FUDs from Twitter.🧵
cryptoquant.com/dashboard/63a0… /1 An ongoing FUD on #Binance

There are still ongoing conspiracies on how Binance will be the next FTX. You don't have to trust any crypto influencers' reliable secret sources.

Verify with on-chain data.👇

https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1603537064049250304?s=20&t=y1MnkdPI7CFPqQ2yLalsNA

What is the "Clean Reserve" metric?

Why is it significant, particularly in the context of the FTX collapse? 👇 The "Clean Reserve" metric is just the amount of the total reserves that don't include the exchange's own token.

The closer to 100%, the better.

🚨 $ETH Mass-Selling Event Is Coming?

1/ The #ETH2 Deposit has amassed, holding 12% of the total supply.
As the $ETH exchange reserve drops down to 15% of the total supply and continues to decrease,
What will happen on $ETH after the Shanghai Hard Fork?🧵
shorturl.at/svV08 2/ #Ethereum 'Shanghai Hard Fork' is set for March next year.
After the fork, it will enable withdrawals for $ETH stakers/validators from the Beacon Chain.

📝 #ShanghaiHardFork #Shanghai
🗓️ Mar 2023
theblock.co/post/193350/et…

What does Binance's Proof of Reserve (PoR) report tell us from an on-chain perspective?

A short thread 👇

@binance @cz_binance The report highlighted the following points:

1- Binance’s BTC liabilities (customer deposits) are 97% collateralized by the exchange assets.

2- Collateralization increases to 101% when the BTC lent to customers is accounted for.

⚠️ What is Whale Dumping?

How to manage your risk against whale activity by following Exchange Whale Ratio 👇 Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) is the relative size of the top 10 inflow transactions to total inflows.

🟢 During a bull market, it often stays below 85%.

🔴 During a bear market or fake bull for mass-dumping, it usually remains above 85%.

Examples 👇

➡️Miners are OG whales!

✅Any crypto investor must know how to monitor Bitcoin miners’ behavior.

3 simple metrics to manage your risk professionally👇 1️⃣ Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI)

This metric simply shows whether miners’ outflow is higher than their yearly average.

It spikes only when miners’ outflows are unusual