The upcoming Arctic outbreak across Central U.S. is going to be the "real deal". Temperatures will likely rival anything seen in 30 years (or even longer!) across portions of the Central Plains. In a warming climate, that's saying quite a lot. #COwx#NEwx#WYwx#KSwx (1/6)
Temperatures will fall, in incredibly dramatic fashion ( of the course of just a few hours) by 40 or more degrees in some areas as a powerful Arctic front pushes through. Temperatures will plummet well below zero (-20 to -30F) across a broad region, w/even lower windchills. (2/6)
This level of cold will be potentially dangerous even in places accustomed to pretty low temperatures in winter, since even those spots haven't seen temperatures this low in 30 or more years. This will be especially true across portions of Wyoming and Colorado. #WYwx#COwx (3/6)
One personal reflection as a climate scientist currently living in Boulder: it's plausible that these are the coldest temperatures I'll experience in this part of the world for the rest of my life, given the strong and sustained winter warming trend due to #ClimateChange. (4/6)
Winters across essentially the entire U.S. have been getting warmer in recent decades, with decreases in both the duration and magnitude of extreme cold in most places. #ColdSnap#ClimateChange#ArcticBlast (5/6)
Finally, a brief note about amplified Arctic warming & its influence on mid-latitude cold snaps: right now, evidence suggests that although warming Arctic may well have regional/seasonal effects on jet stream, it's probably not causing more extreme winter cold in N. America.(6/6)
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And now: A thread regarding my thoughts on "1.5°C"--not only as a Paris Agreement target, but also re: relevance to recent #climate events & overlaps (or not) w/geophysical realities. (This was originally written as a response to a journalist, who used excerpts in their article.)
First and foremost, it's absolutely true that every tenth of a degree matters; each increment of global warming will bring a relatively larger increase in adverse societal and ecological impacts than the last.
This statement is not so much about rate of warming itself, but a reflection of growing recognition that Earth system (especially the biosphere and cryosphere) can respond non-linearly, and sometimes abruptly or even irreversibly on human timescales, to gradual shifts in climate.
There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods--but that's simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, "heads up" outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.
As always, this is not to blame the victims! Quite the opposite; this truly was a sudden & massive event and occurred at worst possible time (middle of the night). But problem, once again, was not a bad weather prediction: it was one of "last mile" forecast/warning dissemination.
I am not aware of the details surrounding staffing levels at the local NWS offices involved, nor how that might have played into timing/sequence of warnings involved. But I do know that locations that flooded catastrophically had at least 1-2+ hours of direct warning from NWS.
Some perspective on recent warmth over past month in California. Many folks, most of whom live within ~20 miles of the coast, have been asking: where's all this hot weather I keep hearing about? Well...the short answer is inland & across hills/mountains. [Thread] #CAwx #CAfire
In fact, the past ~30 days have actually been near record-warm (yes, yet again!) across a substantial portion of the foothills & higher mountains ringing Central Valley, plus the Imperial Valley (which is a very hot place to begin with!) However... #CAwx #CAfire
However, along the coast (and inland up to 20 miles or so, a bit farther near gaps in coastal mountains through which marine influence spills), temperatures have NOT been very warm, and in some cases have even been COOLER than the (recent warmer climate) average! #CAwx #CAfire
Amer. Meteorological Soc. (@ametsoc) just issued a (fully justified) dire statement regarding rapidly accelerating & potentially disastrous efforts to decimate weather & climate enterprise in U.S. If implemented, this would cost many lives & cause major/ long-term economic harm.
@ametsoc "In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut, with unknown — yet almost certainly disastrous — consequences for public safety and economic health."
@ametsoc "If you believe in the importance of NOAA research for maintaining and improving NWS forecasts and services to the nation then *THE TIME TO ACT IS NOW*. Reach out to your elected representatives and share your concerns."
The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within #NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service (#NWS), is profoundly alarming.
1/11
It appears that staff fired today include meteorologists, data scientists responsible for maintaining weather predictive models, and technicians responsible for maintaining the nation’s weather instrumentation network (among many others).
2/11
The U.S. NWS is a truly world-class meteorological predictive service, perhaps singularly so. Its cost of operation is only ~$3-4/yr per taxpayer—equivalent to a single cup of coffee—and yields a truly remarkable return on investment (at least 10 to 1, and perhaps 100 to 1).
3/11
A period of very warm mid-winter conditions appear likely for much of California and portions of the interior West in late Feb. A strong ridge will form during this period, with large-scale subsidence & warm air advection allowing for a genuine winter "heat wave" next week. #CAwx
Temps in 80s will be widespread in SoCal, & even 90s are possible. T-shirt and shorts weather will also extend into NorCal and beyond (well into 70s), as well as desert SW (where late spring-like temps in 90s are likely). Late Feb records may be broken in some places. #CAwx #AZwx
Looking ahead to the end of winter and spring, the California/U.S. West precipitation dipole (i.e., unusually wet in the north and unusually dry in the south) appears likely to continue. The dryness may expand to include more of CA/West Coast later in spring, too. #CAwx #CAwater