The upcoming Arctic outbreak across Central U.S. is going to be the "real deal". Temperatures will likely rival anything seen in 30 years (or even longer!) across portions of the Central Plains. In a warming climate, that's saying quite a lot. #COwx#NEwx#WYwx#KSwx (1/6)
Temperatures will fall, in incredibly dramatic fashion ( of the course of just a few hours) by 40 or more degrees in some areas as a powerful Arctic front pushes through. Temperatures will plummet well below zero (-20 to -30F) across a broad region, w/even lower windchills. (2/6)
This level of cold will be potentially dangerous even in places accustomed to pretty low temperatures in winter, since even those spots haven't seen temperatures this low in 30 or more years. This will be especially true across portions of Wyoming and Colorado. #WYwx#COwx (3/6)
One personal reflection as a climate scientist currently living in Boulder: it's plausible that these are the coldest temperatures I'll experience in this part of the world for the rest of my life, given the strong and sustained winter warming trend due to #ClimateChange. (4/6)
Winters across essentially the entire U.S. have been getting warmer in recent decades, with decreases in both the duration and magnitude of extreme cold in most places. #ColdSnap#ClimateChange#ArcticBlast (5/6)
Finally, a brief note about amplified Arctic warming & its influence on mid-latitude cold snaps: right now, evidence suggests that although warming Arctic may well have regional/seasonal effects on jet stream, it's probably not causing more extreme winter cold in N. America.(6/6)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
We are witnessing a genuinely extraordinary, and regionally quite deadly and destructive, period for extreme #weather in the United States. And, quite frankly, the fingerprints of #ClimateChange are all over what has transpired in recent weeks and may yet occur in coming days.
An incredible, ongoing, & increasingly record-shattering heatwave has plagued much of Southwestern U.S. for *weeks* now. Phoenix has now seen *2 consecutive weeks* with record temperatures *every day.* Many other locations have set new Oct and/or "heat streak" records.#CAwx #AZwx
Hurricane #Helene, which intensified very rapidly before making landfall in Florida's Big Bend, bringing record 15+ foot storm surge, then brought an even greater disaster in form of widespread, catastrophic flooding in Southern Appalachians. Hundreds are dead. #NCwx #TNwx #SCwx
The images and stories just beginning to emerge from eastern TN and western NC in the aftermath of widespread catastrophic flooding wrought by #Helene are genuinely horrifying, and the full scale of the disaster is likely as yet untold. #TNwx #NCwx [Thread: 1/n]
20-30 inches--and perhaps locally 40+ inches--of rain fell along highest ridges of the Southern Appalachians due to 1-2 punch consisting of extreme "predecessor rain event" (PRE) that was historic in its own right followed by further extreme rain directly from #Helene. [2/n]
This was, by far, the most extreme rain event in observed record across much/most of the region, where reliable records date back over 100 yrs. Unsurprisingly, the flooding which resulted has also been widespread, historic, and generally catastrophic across a broad region. [3/n]
For the first time since June in many parts of California and the broader Southwest, *cooler* than average temperatures can be expected for the next week, thanks in part to arrival of a *second* anomalously deep August low pressure system over NorCal Thu/Fri. #CAwx [1/4]
Another round of widespread rain & possible t-storms will occur in western WA & OR. In far NorCal, esp. northern mtns (Shasta region), some decent showers & t-storms are possible. Few showers/isolated thunder may reach farther south than last event--locally to I-80 corridor. #ORwx #WAwx #CAwx [2/4]
All of this will be fortuitous for fire season in western Washington and Oregon--mainly west of Cascades. While active fires will continue to east of Cascades, this may be season-ending precip (or close to it) for western WA and NW OR. #ORwx #WAwx [3/4]
For folks in Colorado wondering what the heck is going on with #Xcel's large-scale pre-emptive power line de-energization to avoid wildfire ignitions during high wind events, I wanted to share a some thoughts as a scientist who studies climate/weather/wildfire. #COwx [1/n]
The first utility-scale "Public Safety Power Shut-offs" (#PSPS) in response to fire risk of which I'm aware began in 2010s in California in response to catastrophic wildfire events in urban interface sparked by power infrastructure during extreme fire weather/wind events. [2/n]
Such fires occur when energized lines fall to ground or trees fall onto live wires (igniting vegetation). They tend to be preferentially dangerous precisely because they occur under "worst case" conditions, when weather favors rapid spread & fire suppression is ineffective. [3/n]
I wanted to reiterate some recent findings from our own research specifically addressing extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in a warming climate.
1) CA will more extreme ARs in a warming climate, mainly (~80%) due water vapor increases. #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
2) Extreme CA ARs in a warming climate will not only be more intense, but they may also have preferentially more southerly (deep subtropical) origins (like present one!). #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
3) Integrated vapor transport, a measure of AR intensity, may increase at a "super Clausius-Clapeyron" rate (>>7%/C), especially over Southern California! #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Scientific institutions must create--and sustain--new kinds of roles so that researchers can provide the deep public engagement necessary to respond effectively to the escalating impacts of #climate change. The status quo isn't working. [Thread: 1/n] nature.com/articles/d4158…
My own role as a climate scientist-communicator is highly unusual in the academic world: I'm a practicing scientist who spends a large fraction (now over half) of my time engaging the public, and the rest of my time actually conducting research and writing papers. [2]
That engagement takes many forms. This year, I've given over 200 news interviews & worked with outlets behind the scenes to develop their coverage. I also work with state/federal agencies, brief members of state/national legislatures, and more. [3]