False narratives about the #Arctic & #permafrost are being driven by the media. Here are some facts from science. 1) permafrost underlies 1/4 of N hemisphere land and 1/2 of Canada. Frozen ground is a backbone for ecosystems and infrastructure. 1/ fediscience.org/@queenofpeat/1…
Fact 2: It’s false to say thaw is unprecedented as it has happened in the past. However, rates of thaw are getting faster w/ warming, and because of climate change some permafrost will never return. Here is a video of me realizing ancient permafrost in Alaska is gone forever. 2/
Fact 3: Thawing permafrost is not why atmospheric methane (CH4) has increased so quickly in recent years. For now, permafrost thaw is a CO2 story, not a methane or nitrous oxide story. Hey climate reporters - Let’s keep our eye on the true story which deserves attention. 3/
Fact 4: Thawing permafrost is NOT a ticking time bomb. It is not going to catch us by surprise with a sci-fi burp of greenhouse gas emissions. Rather expect sustained emissions that gradually increase & become significant in the next few decades to century. How significant...? 4/
Fact 5: We talk about permafrost as a "country of emissions". A warming, thawing Arctic will add the equivalent of a major industrialized country to the global emissions stage. That means permafrost needs to be accounted for NOW in climate policy work, not down the road. 5/
Fact 6: Zombie viruses "emerging" from thawing permafrost are a false narrative and do NOT keep me up at night. What are my nightmares? Permafrost adding another United State's worth of GHG emissions to the atmosphere, thawing causing havoc on northerners. 6/
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I am seeing and receiving pushback for being a climate scientist speaking out about the #MarshallFire. I understand this perspective. 1) It's difficult to attribute the #ClimateCrisis to any single event, and 2) this event was extremely complex. But hear me out. 1/
1) The #MarshallFire was either a reminder or a wakeup call that whether you live up the canyon (like I do) or on the plains, 🔥 is an ongoing threat. 2) Climate-fire relationships are complex, but due to the #ClimateCrisis, we need to learn to live with 🔥 more than ever. 2/
Hurricane force winds & human development were important factors in the #MarshallFire. But fuel configuration and moisture, and invasive species also important. Fuels include natural & human-derived.
One thing is clear to me. We all need to unite under the same umbrella. 3/
~30,000 people fled the #MarshallFire, one of the most terrifying experiences we can face. Today I am reflecting on the added anxiety and consequences of fleeing a #climatemergency disaster during the COVID pandemic. Here I'll share a personal story w/ a tiny bit of insight. 1/
Just outside Boulder, circa January 2021
Normally I love the sound of wind in the trees. But the winds were howling that day. It was difficult to ignore. The house was groaning, shifting. We were in full lockdown due to COVID-19. I was trying to stay busy. 2/
My children were playing outside. Mommy I smell smoke...
At first I didn't smell anything. It was a red flag day. Everyone needed to be careful. But then I smelled it and we saw flames down the road. That is our only way out. What happened next was a blur. 3/
Permafrost stores 2x the amount of carbon in the atmosphere yet is not considered by many climate models. Are we totally screwed??? Here I will explain what we know and why I promote #ClimateActionNow but not panic. 1/
The Arctic (and its permafrost soils) is not a missing black box in any climate model, which all include Arctic soils. Until we explicitly include permafrost in these models, it is difficult to know what climate feedbacks we are missing. Likely to be in the middle. 2/
I research abrupt permafrost thaw, known to be a large source of methane. NO large scale models address abrupt thaw, yet. Ouch. Still, some portion of abrupt thaw fluxes are included in current modeling. What's the potential for overlap? More than zero, but we don't know. 3/
Permafrost stores >2x as much as carbon as is in the atmosphere. The most carbon-rich permafrost is associated with ground ice, yet climate models don't account for ice-rich permafrost thaw (Turetsky et al. @Nature 2019). This WICKED problem underestimates Arctic emissions. 1/
In my @CUBoulder lecture today I outlined a trifecta of uncertainties related to permafrost & carbon. 1) We know plants and new biomass will offset some permafrost soil carbon losses with thaw, but how much? And will that "green carbon" last in the face of 🔥🔥👇 2/
#2 wicked uncertainty. How can climate models include abrupt permafrost thaw that leads to massive erosion, landslides, and subsidence? These are incredible state changes that affect meters and meters of soil carbon, yet are currently ignored by climate models. 3/
Please share to build awareness! Permafrost is being featured today at #COP26Glasgow. Here I will explain why this is SO important to our future climate and everything we know and love about the Arctic. Stick with me for a cooler than cool 🧵. Photo @grosse_guido 1/
Permafrost is diverse, comprised of frozen earth (rock, soil, sediment...). It often contains pockets of ice of all sizes. For many many 1000s of yrs, permafrost has been quietly doing its thing. Aggrading & locking atmospheric carbon into frozen ground. A true climate champ! 2/
Permafrost is a HIDDEN gem of the Arctic. Frozen ground is buried by a surface active layer (soil, moss) that freezes & thaws seasonally. But dig deeper, and we come across perennially frozen ground. This makes it difficult to study from surface or remote sensing measurements. 3/
This is a true story, but also science legend. When bogs want to share their secrets, they delight with sunlight & spider webs glistening on wet stems, dragonflies feasting. But a bog can turn on you at any moment, as I learned. 1/
The drive was fueled by stories and big laughter from our guests. Approaching the rolling hills of West Virginia, the Czech scientists pressed their faces against the warm windows. We rolled into motel rooms eager to greet the morning. Such perfect field conditions we thought. 2/
Early morning realization- thick fog had settled in & I couldn’t see the field truck. It will burn off we said confidently. But there was no laughing as we hiked into the bog. Crunchy footsteps connected with frozen peat. It was a magical strange world draped in hoar frost. 3/