Ukraine-Belarus border is a swampy forest with few roads. During both World Wars neither German nor Russian/Soviet Armies tried to overcome this area. Putin thinking to do so speaks volumes about his military "genius".
But never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Context why I'm writing this:
Igor "Strelkov" Girkin warns that this would end badly for Russian forces (he is right).
Moreover to what he said, I see the Belarus Army as an additional Achilles heel. They will not fight for Putin and might quickly turn their guns around.#Belarus
For those claiming that the activities in Belarus might force Ukrainian troops to be allocated there. AFU never put their guard down. The entire 5th Army is positioned there. It is certainly not the strongest part of AFU but their job is to delay and obstruct until help arrives.
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If you've noticed that Russians are making virtually no progress around Bakhmut, even losing ground in the south, then you are right. They wasted their resources by frontally attacking the city, most notably at Opytne and East. Even Russian propagandists are getting dismayed. 1/7
Their local gain at Yakovlivka, which should have been their main thrust in order to be successful, comes way too late to make a difference. Ukrainian troops still control the areas north of this town and reinforcements from Kherson are positioning. 2/7
Moreover, they already falter at the southern part of this operation and even fall back, which emphasized once more how obsessed Russians are with Bakhmut itself. They want it so badly that it will be their undoing, as I predicted it. 3/7
Instead of trying to encircle Bakhmut and slowly taking it, the Russian High command seems to have decided to launch a frontal attack on the city itself, proving my suspicion that Putin wants the city as fast as possible even when this means highest rate of own casualties. 1/8
It is the Russian version of shock and awe where everything is thrown into the meat grinder in order to overwhelm the enemy because there is no better option. This tactic is as reckless as it is desperate. You chose this only when you have a very limited time window. 2/8
I believe that the haste comes from two reasons.
1.) The Russian reserves are limited. You cannot sustain such a high intensity operation for a long time.
2.) Winter hasn't fully arrived yet. The Russian army is not ready for it. A snow storm would scythe them entirely. 3/5
There are some western leaders such as Macron who make no sense when talking about “security guarantees for Russia”. Putin has made clear in numerous instances that he does not recognize Ukraine as a state. So, it has zero to do with security.
Even when we wouldn’t know that it is non sense because any security architecture is based on a status quo whatever that means and which is based on the current state of events. Russia under Putin is not interested in that but in the compete opposite.
We are dealing with a deeply revanchist Russia under Putin which wants to destroy the status quo, including any security architecture in order to implement its imperial structure from the 19th and 20th Century. Any offer for peace or ceasefire without a Russian withdrawal…
Russia is aching for a ceasefire but the its propaganda logic dictates that this option can only be taken when Russia achieved a small or even Pyrrhic victory without the impression of being beaten over and over again as it is the case right now, especially after Kherson.
Bakhmut is supposed to be a future propaganda facade with some tactical background but no strategic value. In the contrary, even when we project that Russians might achieve that objective it would be extremely hard to hold it with no additional reserves.
Neither Russia’s industry nor the botched mobilization are in a shape for sustaining that, at least not for the moment. But there is the thinking in Russia that this might be changed in future when there is tactical pause (ceasefire). Imho I find that conclusion questionable.